BoSox on the bubble: ALCS game five preview

One of the most misleading stats in baseball comes to the forefront tonight as the Rays and Red Sox fight for the final time at Fenway this year. That stat? Team wins in a pitcher's start.

Scott Kazmir tosses for the Rays in game five, with Tampa Bay on the verge of clinching the A.L. pennant. He got shelled in game two, giving up five runs in less than five innings in a 9-8 Rays victory. Long have pitchers been revered for keeping their teams in games even if they don't win. In this case, however, Kazmir kept a pulse and little else as Boston hit him all over the field, including three home runs. Kazmir's team won, but he lost his battle badly.

The reason Kazmir is starting tonight at Fenway has little to do with the Rays feeling confident that they beat Boston in Kazmir's latest start. Kazmir is much worse on the road (4.10 ERA vs. 2.90 at home), and with the right-handed hulks in Boston's lineup, the BoSox should be taking aim at the green monster. The reason Kazmir is pitching is so James Shields doesn't have to. The Tampa right hander carries a 2.59 ERA at Tropicana Field and just a 4.82 mark on the road. Getting him back to the Trop might be the death knell for the Red Sox. Pitching a serviceable Kazmir tonight gives Tampa a better opportunity if the series returns home.

Pick Boston tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka has pitched brilliantly in the postseason, and the Rays are gearing up for a one- or two-game fight back home. Sure, they'd take the win tonight, but sometimes stockpiling an arsenal means losing a battle to get ready.