Friday, May 9, 2008

Jered Weaver: "They've figured me out."

After Thursday night's dismal outing, Jered Weaver's ERA ballooned to 5.59 and he lost a league-worst 5th game. As if those numbers aren't bad enough, perhaps most disturbing of all is what Weaver had say so after Thursday night's game. Sliding Shorts has the full story...and its FREE. Or you can just read more frightening Jered Weaver info below....

You dropped Jered Weaver!? Oh, OK

Startled by the perceived ingnorance of one owner in my fantasy baseball league for dropping Jered Weaver, I nearly made the mistake of my fantasy season: picking up Jered Weaver from the waiver wire and placing him on my team. Yikes! After checking out the numbers, Ignorant Owner, you're no longer ignorant. You're taking a calculated risk, and I think you might be on to something. To analyze, first we must understand Jered Weaver is not Jeff Weaver. Then we must compare the two to scare ourselves to the point of making a rational decision and not an emotional one. Again, Jered is not Jeff, not yet, anyway. It does, however, look like he might be well on his way to following in older brother's footsteps if this kind of thing keeps up.

Jeff Weaver is a tough player to statistically analyze due to his wild swings from effective to ineffective starter. His first few years on the Tigers proved to be productive if not remarkable. After imploding with the Yankees, he found it (whatever it is) again in Los Angeles. After going from the Dodgers to the Angles, however, he lost it again. Save for a brief stretch-run including a World Series shocker with the Cardinals he hasn't been a good fantasy option since, especially now that he's stuck in the minors.

Jered Weaver's recent success as a young pitcher trumps his brother's early track record. Over his first two seasons with the Angels, Jered dominated the American League with ERAs of 2.56 and 3.91. What's most impressive are his 24 victories in less than two actual full seasons of baseball. He won more than half of his starts and 73 percent of his decisions.

Unfortunaley for Jered, 2008 is a much different story. He's 2-5 with a Jeff-like 5.59 ERA. His home runs allowed are up, averaging about one per outing, and for the first time in his career Jered's given up more hits than innings pitched. While his walk rate 2.7/9 (2008) vs. 2.5/9 (career) has undergone a minuscule increase, his strikeout rate 6.0/9 (2008) vs. 6.8/9 (career) is in more discernible decline, and actually improved over his three recent shellings. Jered's biggest issue might be leaving the ball up. He used to induced twice as many groundballs as fly balls. This year the ratio is practially one to one.

Spitting Seeds recommendation: Jered Weaver is still the only Weaver brother worth owning in fantasy ball. While he's been a huge disappointment, he still carries value as a No. 4 starter at this time and is more likely to bounce back than not (he carried a 5.15 ERA into the 2nd week of May last year and finished at 3.91). Next week he's got two starts lined up, including one against the red-hot John Danks and the White Sox. Hang on to Weaver for now, although if you're a dice-roller, there might be something better out there. If he's on the waiver wire, you might be better off waiting for him to clear and become a free agent. Clayton Kershaw is certainly more worth of a waiver claim at this time.


Greg Smith: full-time starter?


Rookie Greg Smith pitches tonight for the Oakland A's. My interest in Smith is two-fold. First, I covered his career in high school at Alexandria Senior High in Alexandria, LA. Second, his fantasy value -- as well as other A's pitchers' fantasy values -- could be in store for a big change with what happens against the Texas Rangers tonight.

A few years back, Smith starred as both a pitcher and first baseman for the ASH Trojans, the same school Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre attended. Smith was groomed to play a high level of baseball by ASH coach Don Boniol, who sent several players to LSU. Boniol is connected to big-time sports on multiple levels. He also coached football at ASH, which typically sent a player or two to the college ranks. Boniol's son Chris kicked for the Dallas Cowboys. If it is possible for a high school to prepare a kid for the next level, ASH certainly has the credentials. Boniol definitely did a great job with his son, Pierre and Smith.

Back to tonight's Oakland game with Texas. Smith throws in what will be just his seventh MLB start. That it's his seventh start is not nearly as significant as it is the first time Smith will be throwing against a team he has already faced. On May 4th the Rangers managed just three hits in six innings against the 24-year-old left hander, striking out 10 times. If Smith can duplicate these numbers after Texas has seen and scouted him, his outstanding start to the season (2-1, 2.54 ERA, 31 K) should keep him in the Oakland rotation.

Smith already received a vote of confidence just last night when the A's moved righty Chad Gaudin out of the rotation to make room for Rich Harden, who is returning from the disabled list. Many speculated that either Smith or fellow first-year Athletic Dana Eveland would be demoted to the bullpen or to Triple-A Sacramento. That the A's chose to go with Smith and Eveland (24) over Gaudin (25) speaks volumes of their faith in the relatively untested left handers. That faith will only be reinforced tonight if Smith can make it two straight strong outings against a Major League ballclub. If not, Gaudin waits in the wing. He won a starting job just last season and has now lost it while still pitching well. It proves the A's are not necessarily committed to whom they give initial opportunities. Smith needs to take note.

Spitting Seeds' recommendation: Smith's been great at this point, but he and Eveland are like coal miners now that there are so many starting options in Oakland; they walk around on shaky ground.

Ludwick is a big lug


It's time to take a flier on the the Cardinals' Ryan Ludwick. The Minor League journeyman connected twice against the Rockies on Thursday, sending out his sixth and seventh Major League home runs in just 91 ABs. That puts him on pace for around 35 this season. At this point he's platooning in the Cardinals' four-man outfield rotation, but because his bat's been the biggest of the group, he could start getting even more ABs, which could lead to even more home runs. He has now hit safely in his last eight games, including three home runs in his last two. Ludwick has more home runs than Albert Pujols at this point of the season. He's tied with Pujols in runs scored, and he's just three RBI behind the Cardinals' slugger in 32 less ABs.

Can we expect upwards of 35 to 40 bombs from Mr. Ludwick this season? Tough call. The safest bet is no. Over parts of eight Major League seasons Ludwick has totaled enough ABs for a just over a full season as a starter. In that time he has a pedestrian .265 avg. and a solid .485 slugging percentage, making his isolated power .200. While the power numbers are above average by MLB standards, they are below the mark of a true power hitter. Ludwick also strikes out 27 percent of the time he comes to bat while walking just 65 times in 773 plate appearances. Both numbers are unspectacular considering he's more of a power hitter than a contact guy. So few walks indicate pitchers are willing to challenge Ludwick rather than pitch around him. They're not afraid.

That fact that Ludwick is lugging what are truly All-Star type numbers over the first six weeks of the season is probably a statistical aberration. Over time numbers tend to come back to reality, and there's no doubt the .363 and .758 slugging percentage will come down quite a bit. He's never even approached those kind of numbers at any level, and as he earns more at bats over a full major league season, the Ludwick we've seen in the past is more likely to emerge than the one currently doing so much damage to MLB pitching. With 26 Ks in 91 ABs, Ludwick is striking out more often than ever before, meaning the balls he's put in play are miraculously finding the turf of the seats at a rate that cannot continue. The more he plays, the more fielders get a glove on the balls he hits. With history as our guide, the strikeout rate won't change much. Ryan Ludwick's attractiveness will.

Spitting Seeds' suggestion: Take him while he's hot, so your opponents can't use him against you. This might last another month or so but certainly not for a full season.