Friday, April 17, 2009

Downs or Frasor after Ryan?

Athlon Sports releases its latest on closer roles up for grabs, expecting Manny Corpas to eventually take over for Huston Street and Jason Frasor potentially winning the Blue Jays job from B.J. Ryan.

For more on closers, see 2009 MLB closers.

Fantasy Impact: There's really no information available on Frasor wresting the job from Ryan or even winning it over setup man Scott Downs, whom Cito Gaston himself considered Ryan's biggest challenger at the end of the spring. The only reason Frasor earned a save this season was he bailed out Ryan in a game against the Indians when Downs had already been used.

Frasor has started using a split-finger pitch this season with solid results. So, while it is possible that Frasor has the stuff to close games, it isn't necessarily likely that he will be the first reliever off the bench when Ryan falters. We'll consider Downs the favorite to see opportunities while Frasor is possibly choice 1A.

The left-handed Maddux?

There's something special about White Sox starter John Danks. Danks threw six innings of two-hit baseball in Tampa Thursday night, striking out eight while giving up a single run. He earned his first win of 2009, a 3-2 nail-biter over the Rays.

At the age of 24, Danks is growing into a legitimate MLB pitcher. He won't wow anyone with his stuff, which is more than adequate but still not overwhelming. His numbers, however, jump off the page in Greg Maddux-like fashion. Take a look at the pitchers' first two seasons in the majors. The comparison is eerie.

2007 JD -- 6-13 ERA: 5.50 IP: 139.0 H: 160 HR: 28 BB: 54 K: 109 WHIP: 1.540
1987 GM -- 6-14 ERA: 5.61 IP: 155.2 H: 181 HR: 17 BB: 74 K: 101 WHIP: 1.638

2008 JD -- 12-9 ERA: 3.32 IP: 195.0 H: 182 HR: 15 BB: 57 K: 159 WHIP: 1.226
1988 GM -- 18-8 ERA: 3.18 IP: 249.0 H: 230 HR: 13 BB: 81 K: 140 WHIP: 1.249

Their rookie seasons are near-mirror images of each other. Danks gave up more home runs while Maddux kept the ball in the yard but gave up more base runners. Year two shows some separation in the numbers as Maddux began his winning ways and threw more innings, but it's not that far off. Danks limited base runners in Maddux-like fashion, and he continued to use his above-average pitches to strike out more batters.

It's hard to draw the conclusion that Danks will continue his meteoric rise as one of the top young arms in baseball based on this comparison to Maddux. The Hall of Famer eventually produced off-the-charts stats, like 20 BB and a 0.946 WHIP in 1997. He did win 355 games for a reason: he averaged 16 wins over his 23 seasons.

Danks is behind a year age-wise, and he's eight wins behind Maddux through two full seasons in the big leagues. He's got the numbers to expect great things ahead, and while a Greg Maddux comparison is not fair to almost any pitcher, the first two years are comparable for John Danks. Maddux entered the big leagues as a young 20-year-old with considerable upside, but his first season in Chicago left some with tempered expectations. Danks is the same type of high-end prospect who met with limited success when he first cracked the surface. Since then, he's been brilliant.