Sunday, May 9, 2010

Meek shall inherit a closer job?

Until now, Evan Meek was just a fireballer with an impressive set of stats (9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 H/9) over a small sample size (19 IP). You know, that flash-in-the-pan type who can't harness his stuff for more than a few outings at a time. Now that he's put it together for all of April, Meek is getting picked up off the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues as a stray-saves hopeful and potential replacement for struggling Pirates closer Octavio Dotel.

Now the speculation on Meek's value reaches a new high; people within the Pirates organization believe the closer job is headed his way.
Meek, a Rule 5 draft pick in December of that year, has a 0.53 ERA through 13 appearances, 17 strikeouts to five walks, a .183 opponents' batting average and a save in his only opportunity to fill in for Octavio Dotel. Among National League relievers, only Colorado's Randy Flores and Washington's Tyler Clippard have lower ERAs.

All that, and his fastball -- which peaked with a 98-mph register a month ago in Phoenix -- as well as a dynamic slider and changeup have many associated with the team feeling it is a matter of time until he closes.
Now, let it be noted that there's no attribution to anyone making this claim other than "many associated with the team," but this is how a story leaks. Meek is still young (27), talented and speculated about. If we're thinking he's got closer written all over him, the Pirates are thinking the same. With Octavio Dotel signed to a one-year deal and likely tradable as a setup man due to his long-standing reputation at the MLB level, there's very little holding the Pirates back. Once they deem Meek ready to handle the pressure, the job is his. It's time to get serious on Meek as a long-term candidate to close in Pittsburgh. Cross your fingers that his production is suddenly legit. The Pirates are.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Wood returns, but for how long?

Kerry Wood returns to the Cleveland Indians as the team's closer and is officially rumored as trade bait by USA Today. This significantly devalues Chris Perez, who now resumes his role as Wood's primary setup man.

Fantasy Impact: A trade would be good for Wood, who doesn't look to get many save chances for the Indians. A trade would also be good for Perez, who would finally get his shot to close games at the MLB level full-time.

Corpas heads Rockies relief corp

Manny Corpas officially gets the nod as Rockies interim closer over other options including Franklin Morales. This wasn't unexpected considering Corpas' success this season, which includes a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. That's great, but Corpas has given up runs in two of his last three outings. He's also not your prototypical closer with career 1.31 WHIP and 6.4 K/9 numbers. His 2010 strikeout total (6.6 K/9) is right on pace with typical Corpas numbers. Remember, this is a guy who both won and lost the Rockies closer job two years ago. He'll be counted on only as long as he is effective.

Fantasy Impact: Huston Street, the Rockies regular closer, is expected back at the MLB level within the next two weeks. Corpas is worth the add, certainly, but he's always a risk to struggle.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

AJacks' achilles

Let me be the second to call him AJax; that was accomplished on April 12th by a Royals-Tigers blogger. Let me be the first to remind you that being called Ajax has its problems. You may remember in Greek mythology Ajax was the warrior of greatest stature, but he was not the greatest Greek warrior. While he put up great numbers killing 28 Trojans at the battle of Troy, he didn't quite make it to the Trojan Horse, the official Greek Plan B after their powerful army had failed them.

Like his namesake, the Tigers' Austin Jackson (.369 AVG, 45 H, .421 OBP, 5 SB) is putting up incredible numbers in his rookie season, making him look like a steal in the Curtis Granderson (.225 AVG, .311 OBP) trade. Such in-credible numbers are, in fact, not credible.

Jackson leads the majors in at bats (122) and hits (45) and is tied for the American League lead in triples with three. He's getting on base frequently at the top of the Tigers order and has stolen five bags. This is all-time rookie-of-the-year type stuff, and, as I pointed out on my blog prior to the season, it's unlikely to last. At that time, I compared Jackson to more of a Carlos Gomez-type than an Andrew McCutchen-type.

AJax also leads the majors in BABIP and strikeouts, which is the molotov cocktail of a hitting fraud. As far as we know, the original Ajax never resorted to IEDs to get his fighting done. What's so concerning about the Tiger's rookie is just how high those numbers are. His BABIP of .523 is so absurdly high that second place David Freese trails him by 79 points. In recent seasons league average usually falls right around .300 for BABIP, placing Jackson 223 points above the norm.

Last season's league leaders in BABIP were: D. Wright (.394), Ichiro (.384), H. Ramirez (.379) and J. Mauer (.373)

That's great company for Jackson but rather lofty expectations considering he is a 23-year-old rookie. Bringing Jackson down to league average for BABIP returns a batting average of .211, and even if he hits like 2009 David Wright the rest of the year he's hitting no better than .278 from here on out.

Jackson's 35 strikeouts prove more alarming. He's whiffing 29 percent of the time, eight points above league average. Of the 2009 BABIP leaders, only David Wright can even approach that number. Jackson struck out 22 percent of the time in Triple-A last year and in Double-A two years ago when he produced averages of .300 and .285 respectively. These numbers, however, indicate he will slip back toward the mean in terms of his batting average, making that .278 mark anticipatory.

Fantasy Impact: All of this likely brings Jackson back to the pack as we move through May and into June. He's a good sell-high candidate who can produce at a respectable-enough level to maintain third or fourth outfielder status in most fantasy formats; he's obviously not as ho-hum as Carlos Gomez, but he's still no Andrew McCutchen. Hey, the original Ajax was no better than second fiddle himself.