Sunday, February 22, 2009

Samardzija might start

Moments after his value plummeted following comments by Lou Piniella on WGN news tonight that he wouldn't be in the closer competition, Jeff Samardzija rebounded with this report in the Chicago Tribune. Samardzija is getting the first stab at the Cubs' open fifth starter spot.
All I ever ask for is an opportunity to make it happen on the field," Samardzija said. "You can talk about what you want to do or what your plans are as much as you want. But until you go out and physically prove your point, it's all just talk."

Sean Marshall will start the second game against Milwaukee, with Ted Lilly slated to go in Game 3 against Texas. They're scheduled to work two innings apiece.
Fantasy Impact: This is just an opportunity and should be monitored through the spring. If Samardzija loses the starting spot to someone like Marshall, he might not have any value at all. There's a chance he would start the season in Triple-A if the Cubs feel more seasoning is needed before he starts at the big league level. If that happens, Marshall or whomever inherits the number five spot earns value for at least the first month or two of the season.

Murphy's job in left for Mets

Daniel Murphy is the Mets starter in left field, according to manager Jerry Manuel. Murphy was expected to platoon with Fernando Tatis, but instead Tatis will likely share time with Ryan Church in right field.
"I don't want him to get into a strictly platoon situation," Manuel said. "I think he's a little better player than that. Also, with Church being a lefthanded hitter, I kind of see Murphy being a better hitter right now at this time, so Tatis could go that way [in rightfield]. It all depends on how well they're doing. If they're not getting hits, they're not going to play. Development or whatever, they've got to perform."

That's the one caveat with Murphy: He's only 23 and essentially was promoted straight from Double-A Binghamton last season. Murphy played one game at Triple-A New Orleans before he joined the Mets in Houston and started that same night against the Astros at Minute Maid Park.
This smacks of taking pressure off a young man the Mets would like to see succeed. Or does it put more pressure on Murphy? Either way, the Mets want him to win the job, but if he doesn't, this could be a three-way platoon with Tatis switching from left to right on a given day.

Lugo vs. Lowrie begins

Does Julio Lugo become this year's Coco Crisp for the Boston Red Sox? A veteran player talented enough to play every day, but who can't do enough to keep a youngster out of the lineup? Last year Jacoby Ellsbury nudged Crisp into a utility role. Now Jed Lowrie is poised to bounce Lugo from the lineup.
A quadriceps injury ended Lugo's season July 11, although he said he could have played if Boston reached the World Series. He batted .263 with one homer and 22 RBIs after hitting .237 with eight homers and 73 RBIs in his first season with the Red Sox.

"This is a big spring for Julio," Francona said. "He feels like he has a lot to prove."

The 33-year-old Lugo could win the job or enhance his trade value with a solid spring. He heard rumours during the off-season about being dealt for Detroit pitcher Dontrelle Willis, who missed most of last season with a knee injury.

"This is a business," said Lugo, playing with his fourth team since reaching the majors with Houston in 2000. "You want to be where people want you. That's it. If I don't get traded it's because (the Red Sox) want me."

Lowrie has more experience at the other infield spots so might be a better fit as the utility player. He could spell AL MVP Pedroia at second base and Mike Lowell, recovering from off-season hip surgery, at third.
At 25, Lowrie isn't exactly the face of youth, but he's still got growth potential and put up halfway decent numbers on his way up the ladder. He can probably outperform Lugo in every offensive category except for steals.

Fantasy Impact: Something tells me Boston doesn't trust either one of these two. They trusted Ellsbury. That's why Lugo was jettisoned in the offseason. Lowrie and Lugo were both brought back, and my guess is they share time at second. Lugo will get more time, Lowrie will play more of that dreaded utility role. Leave them alone, unless you're dying for Lugo's wheels.

Oh, Odalis

Odalis Perez is getting himself into trouble over what is now a contract holdout with the Nationals.
Perez has expressed his dissatisfaction with his contract since he gave his agent the OK to sign a non-guaranteed minor league deal with Washington on Feb. 5 that would pay him $850,000 if he makes the team, the same stipulation he faced last year.

General manager Jim Bowden hasn't yet spoken with Perez, and doesn't know if he'll show.

"He's not returned my calls, he's not returned (manager) Manny's (Acta) calls and he hasn't returned his agent's calls, so we're waiting to hear back from him," Bowden said. "We're looking at all of our options. We're taking the position that we have an agreement with the player and we're expecting the player to honor the agreement. But we'd like to talk to him first, so we're going to wait until he calls us back and then address the other options at that point."
I'm surprised to learn Perez doesn't make millions considering he's been in the league for a number of years now as a starting pitcher.

Fantasy Impact: Perez is a low-end fantasy option, and the longer he's out, the less of an option he becomes. He's good for a win or two, or maybe some innings eating, if he gets a very favorable matchup.

Teahen at second

This article is mostly about Ryan Shealy and Ross Gload, who are competing for mere roster spots with the Royals at this time. More interesting, however, is where Mark Teahen was playing.
The two starting intrasquad lineups each included two designated hitters in a 10-player format:

CF Coco Crisp, SS Mike Aviles, LF David DeJesus, DH Ross Gload, 1B Billy Butler, C John Buck, 2B Willie Bloomquist, 3B Esteban German, RF Derrick Robinson and DH John Suomi.

CF Mitch Maier, SS Tony Peña, 1B Mike Jacobs, DH Ryan Shealy, 3B Alex Gordon, C Miguel Olivo, 2B Mark Teahen, DH Alberto Callaspo, LF Chris Lubanski and RF José Duarte.
Rumored to play some at second base this year, Teahen owners in deeper keeper formats may want to pay attention.

Fantasy Impact: Teahen's been more of an afterthought in recent fantasy seasons. If he was in your starting lineup, you were likely looking for a better alternative. With this look at second, his fantasy value becomes intriguing. Teahen at second is much more valuable than Teahen in the outfield or at the corner. He'd become an instant rival for Orlando Hudson in terms of one of the higher end options at the position.

Crawford clawing back

Rays left fielder Carl Crawford, who was hampered by a hamstring injury last season, is apparently back to full health again. Crawford is expecting bigger things in 2009.
''I changed my offseason workouts and focused on the hamstring,'' Crawford said. ``I still worked out, I just addressed the hamstring more than in the past.''

Instead of going to Phoenix where he always did his offseason regimen, Crawford stayed at home in Houston, ran on grass instead of artificial turf to aid his hamstring and worked out with a local Houston trainer.

The hope is to play in more games and bring the numbers back to normal. Last season was the first time Crawford's batting average dipped. He had hit over .300 for three consecutive seasons before batting .273 last year. The hamstring issues cost him on the bases, too. Crawford stole only 25 bases last season.

He averaged 51 steals over the previous five seasons, and in 2007 he became just the eighth player in history to reach 250 stolen bases and 1,000 hits before his 27th birthday. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said he believed Crawford was even more focused and ready for a big year.
Crawford could get turned loose this season as the Rays need to max out in order to win the improved AL East.

Fantasy Impact: Crawford typically went in the second round of most fantasy drafts, but not this year. I saw him slide to he fourth or fifth round in some mock drafts after his subpar season. I think the former is too early for his abilities, and the latter is too low. Crawford is a solid late third or early fourth round pick. He'll deliver in at least three categories, and with an improved team around him for a full season, he could mark consistently in four.

Willis working his way back

When talking about potential American League Comeback Players of the Year, look no further than Dontrelle Willis, who is back to his usual smiling self in Tigers camp. Jim Leyland thinks his veteran lefty could be back on track, potentially for a shot at the team's fifth starter spot.
For Willis, Saturday marked the beginning of the beginning, the revving of the engine before the qualifying heats. The exhibition season opens Wednesday.

Leyland said of Willis' work Saturday: "It's probably the best I've seen him since we acquired him. His delivery was good. He was around the plate. He had some depth to his breaking ball. We'll see how that translates when other guys (opposing teams) start showing up."

Willis' windup looked more compact and fluid Saturday than it did last season. "I accomplished what I wanted to ... today," said Willis. "You live for today." He said more than once that he has punted last season from his mind.
Willis has had two outstanding seasons in his career, his rookie campaign of 2003 and his third season in which he won 22 games. There's every expectation that he can regain his form.

Fantasy Impact: Draft him. Seriously. He's only 27, he's bouncing back from the first major setback of his career, and if he feels right, he's Cy Young potential. Willis will be off some people's draft radar, so watch him slide into the later rounds, then draft him before he's gone. He could be a difference-maker in 2009.

More steals, sure, but we need even more from Taveras

Willie Taveras stole 68 bases in 75 attempts last season, double his career high. Now he's looking to do even more.
"I think with a .350 on-base I can steal 100 bases," he said.

The last player to steal 100 bases in a season was Vince Coleman, who took 109 for St. Louis in 1987.

"It can happen," Reds manager Dusty Baker said of Taveras. "He's hard to throw out. He studies. I'm beginning to realize he's smarter than a lot of people give him credit for, which is how I think he likes it. Sometimes, it's better if people don't think you're smart."

But, again, getting to first base is the first step.

"He's got to get on base a lot more than he has before," Baker said.

Taveras doesn't help himself with walks. In 2007, when he missed time with a quad strain, Taveras walked 21 times in 408 plate appearances. Last year, he walked 36 times in 531.

"I think, to be honest with you, I was very consistent in 2007," he said. "I hit the ball more solid. I was in and out of the lineup a lot of times last year. Sometimes, you work hard and you still struggle. It's a new year. (Last year's) in the past."
Taveras isn't a keeper in most leagues, so look for his value to go up if this story gets a little bit more publicity. He's almost a lock to steal 50 bases, which could lead the league in an average season.

Fantasy Impact: Be careful in your draft with this info. I don't believe a base stealer like Taveras makes enough of a diffence in any other category to be more than a middle-tier selection. You can get stolen bases elsewhere, if needed. You don't need the top dog to win the hunt.

A trace of the old Tracy

I haven't really looked at the list, but Chad Tracy certainly comes to mind for National League Comeback Player of the Year now that he's back from microfracture knee surgery.
"It scared me; I'll be honest. But I kept pushing ahead, sticking to my rehab, doing everything they told me to do, and I'm fortunate my knee made it back. I'm very close to where I used to be."

Tracy slugged his way through the Diamondbacks' farm system with a high batting average and on-base percentage. At every stop, his managers praised his clutch hitting and ability to spray the ball to all parts of the field.

After hitting .308 with 27 homers in 2005, his second year in the majors, he appeared on the verge of becoming the franchise's foundation. If the Diamondbacks were to make another run at a championship, Tracy figured to be the player leading the way.

But because of the growing discomfort in his knee, which he believed was nothing more than minor tendinitis, and a slew of top prospects, Tracy missed out on his potential stardom.
Tony Clark is his only real competition at first base now that Connor Jackson is in the outfield. Tracy is young enough to find his form and put up some monster numbers. He had a couple of nice years before struggling with the knee problem the last two seasons.

Fantasy Impact: He's a great flier pick in the middle rounds. If he slips outside of a starting spot on draft day, get him before someone else gets wise.

Contract alone can't keep Roberts in Baltimore

The Baltimore Sun points out that Brian Roberts is still on trade watch, despite his new contract with the Orioles.
Roberts had a very limited no-trade clause for the final year of his previous contract, allowing him to designate four teams to which he could not be traded. That was carried forward when the final year of the old deal was rolled into what essentially is a new five-year contract.

The no-trade protection graduates through the next three years of the contract. He will be allowed to designate eight teams he doesn't want to play for next year and 12 teams the following season. The no-trade clause becomes blanket protection a couple of months before Roberts would get it anyway as a 10-5 player.
He's certainly an attractive candidate to any contending team needing a leadoff hitting second baseman.

Braves get better player in Anderson

Garrett Anderson signed with the Atlanta Braves, where he's expected to enter a left field platoon with Matt Diaz.
The left-handed slugger and three-time former All-Star is expected to play left field for the Braves and perhaps work in a platoon with Matt Diaz — the role the Braves planned for Ken Griffey Jr., before Griffey decided Wednesday to sign with Seattle instead of Atlanta.

Anderson hit .293 with 15 home runs, 84 RBIs and a .325 on-base percentage last season, including 14 home runs in 433 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.

For comparison, Griffey hit .249 with 18 homers and 71 RBIs last season, including .272 with 14 homers in 327 at-bats against right-handers.

Soon after Griffey announced his decision, the Braves moved on to Anderson, despite stating publicly that they would take a look at their organization’s young outfielders and not immediately pursue another free agent or a trade for a veteran.
The Griffey option might have been more of a public relations plus for Atlanta than a productive senior outfielder. Anderson appears to have more hitting ability at this stage of his career.

Check out their numbers from 2007 to 2008:

Griffey:
2007: .277 AVG / 30 HR / 93 RBI / 528 AB
2008: .249 AVG / 18 HR / 71 RBI / 490 AB

Anderson:
2007: .297 AVG / 16 HR / 80 RBI / 417 AB
2008: .293 AVG / 15 HR / 84 RBI / 557 AB

As Griffey declines precipitously, Anderson is a steady veteran at this point. Maybe Griffey can recapture some past magic, but anyone who saw him play late last year with the White Sox will tell you he looked closer to washed up than consistent contributor.

Fantasy Impact: While you never rule out a former star completely, Griffey might be a backup fantasy player for the first time in his career. He just doesn't have the numbers to expect much upside. Anderson will potentially lose at bats this year, but if he hits 400 times, expect double-digit home runs and a .290 average, which puts him in your fourth outfield slot or on your bench as a backup who helps more than he hurts.

Less K in DiamondbacKs?

I felt like the Arizona Diamondbacks struck out a lot last season, but I had no idea that their 1,287 whiffs were ninth most in MLB history! They're putting in work this spring to bring that number down.
Behind a back field at the Diamondbacks' facility here, hitters stand inside a cage as pitching machines spin breaking balls at them. They stand and they watch them dip and dive. They track the pitches as they rotate past them.

The Diamondbacks last season set a franchise record for strikeouts, and the idea of these first-week drills is that the more breaking balls the hitters see, the more acclimated they will be to hitting them.

"I think it can definitely help," center fielder Chris Young said. "Those were the type of pitches that were getting us when things were going bad."
Certainly, Arizona can use some work with regard to putting the ball in play. A lot of improvement should come with a young lineup maturing each year, but with a strong pitching staff, an extra run or two with situational hitting late in games could be the difference between becoming a dominant force in the National League and missing the postseason altogether.

No qualms with Qualls

Bob Melvin says he has no problem naming Chad Qualls his closer, even if the longtime setup man owns just 15 career saves.
"He pitched well down the stretch and closed out the games he had to close out, and therefore he earned the spot to be our closer going into the season," Melvin said.

Qualls finished the season strong, going 2-0 with seven saves in September, which included a streak of 13 scoreless innings.
Melvin should feel good about naming Qualls his closer. After watching Brandon Lyon and Jon Rauch struggle to keep the job, Qualls did well down the stretch. His career WHIP of 1.20 is good for the role. He held opponents to a .224 average last year with a .249 clip for his career. He also struck out nearly a batter an inning in 2008, which makes him capable of getting out of jams.

Fantasy Impact: I expected Qualls to earn the closer job early last season. Now he's getting the opportunity to take the reigns in spring training and run with it. Expect him to succeed. He's done nothing but improve over the last two years.

Fundamentals discovered in Florida, Chicago

In developing news regarding things every baseball team should do, the Florida Marlins continue to encourage their pitchers to learn the changeup while the Cubs realize the benefits of a balanced lineup. Seriously? We're just figuring this stuff out in 2009? Way to go.

One note, however, from the Cubs story. If Alfonso Soriano, in fact, doesn't end up hitting leadoff for the Cubs this year, Ryan Theriot won't be fighting for the role.
"I hate leadoff," Theriot said. "I just want to hit third. I think 'D-Lee' should hit leadoff."

D-Lee, a.k.a. Derrek Lee, who has primarily batted third his entire career, was sitting in the middle of the Fitch Park clubhouse, calmly reading the newspaper when Theriot tried to oust him from his spot.

"No," Lee said, shaking his head.

Lee's home run numbers have dropped the last two seasons -- he hit 46 in 2005 and 20 last year -- but Theriot doesn't seem a likely fill-in. The shortstop hit one home run last year. One.

"How about fourth?" Theriot said, knowing better than to argue with the 6-foot-5 Lee.
I think the Cubs are in trouble with their leadoff spot. Soriano's on-base average was just .344 last year and only .329 for his career. If Theriot's not interested in the job, he's really the only good option with an OBP that reached .387 last year. Mike Fontenot would be the left-handed choice, but he's never had a starting spot, let alone hit from the top of the order. The Cubs still might need to acquire a table-setter late in the year.