Thursday, April 16, 2009

Valverde hurt?

LaTroy Hawkins worked the ninth inning of the Astros' 6-3 victory at Pittsburgh. Both Rotoworld.com and The Sporting News worry that Valverde may have some sort of arm problem. He only threw 16 pitches the night before in a non-save situation.

Fantasy Impact: If Valverde is hurt, Hawkins hasn't had a whole lot of success as a closer.

Who's your Padres?

Break up San Diego, the Padres can't be beaten. Despite a ho-hum pitching performance from Jake Peavy, San Diego knocked around Mets starter John Maine for six runs on seven hits in just five innings. Heath Bell earned his fifth save in five chances and still hasn't allowed a run. 6-5 is the final.

Second-year slow-starter Chase Headley powered the Padres with four hits in four at bats and three RBI. San Diego is 7-3.

Fantasy Impact: Peavy's WHIP of 2.000 in this one was very disappointing, and he only lasted five innings. Peavy still earns his second win. He's fairly solid in his role as a fantasy ace.

Headley brought his average back up to .256. He's a high-end prospect, and if he can overcome the spacious alleys of Petco Park, he might be able to have a breakout season in 2009.

Martis leads Nats to first win

Washington is finally a winner. Behind a solid outing from rookie starter Shairon Martis, the Nationals pounded out eight runs on 13 hits to beat Joe Blanton and the Phillies, 8-2. Washington improves to 1-7 while dropping the Phils to 4-4.

Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes and Alberto Gonzalez all went deep for the Nats, and the bullpen tossed 2 2/3 innings of no-hit ball.

Fantasy Impact: Martis' name was bantered about in fantasy circles this preseason. He put together fairly good numbers in the minors, but walks have been his biggest problem. He only walked two on this night, and if he can keep the ball in the zone, Martis might be a modest sleeper candidate pitching for a bad team.

Halladay outduels Liriano

Francisco Liriano pitched well for the first time this season, but the Twins lefty still lost to the Blue Jays' Roy Halladay, 9-2. While Liriano was busy pitching six strong innings, giving up one run with six strikeouts, Hallady was besting him in nearly every category. Halladay worked seven innings and struck out eight. He picks up his third win. Liriano suffers his third loss.

Toronto, which sent eight batters to the plate hitting better than .300, is now a surprising 8-3. They beat up on the Twins bullpen.

Fantasy Impact: Liriano's effort is a serious relief for owners wondering when he'd lower his lofty ERA. It's down to 5.09 now, which is at least entering respectability.

Halladay is an ace who many allowed to slide in fantasy drafts due to his unlikeliness to win with the Blue Jays. He's 3-0 and can make it halfway to ten before the end of the month.

Cards bats, not Wainwright, beat Cubs

Despite the loss of Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals continue to make one of the best starts in the majors. With a 7-4 win over the Cubs, St. Louis improves to 8-3 on the year.

They got it done with hitting on Thursday with Chris Duncan, Khalil Greene and Brian Barden all going deep. Then again, the Cardinals were facing Cubs fifth starter Sean Marshall while the Cubs dealt with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright.

Fantay Impact: Wainwright actually didn't pitch very well, giving up four runs in six innings while still earning a win. He's giving up a lot of base runners but keeping them from scoring. He'll need to right that ship if he wants to maintain a 3.31 ERA.

Duncan is hitting .389, and Tony La Russa's faith in him against lefties like Marshall is paying off. He picked up three hits today in four at bats.

Guerrero to visit Yocum

Injuries continue to mount in the second full week of the season. Vlad Guerrero, struggling with a bothersome pectoral muscle, is leaving the Angels to take a visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum.
“I want to get back to playing right field,” he said in the clubhouse through an interpreter. “The way I am swinging the bat has nothing to do with this. … I just haven’t gotten into the swing of things.”

He said he first felt discomfort during an exhibition against the Dodgers four days before opening day.

“It progressed to the point that I can’t play the field, and I want to take care of it,” he said.

Asked if the Angels would be OK using Guerrero indefinitely as a DH only, Scioscia said, “We’re going to have to be.

“Obviously (it’s about) what Vlad brings to our team, and the lion’s share of what he brings is hitting right in the middle of the lineup and swinging the bat,” the manager said. “And if we can get that, it goes a long way to building an offense.

“We’ll take it one step at a time. If it’s something where he’s limited to that role, we obviously have enough (outfield) depth to work around that.”
Fantasy Impact: Typically a visit to Dr. Yocum means something serious, but that's with shoulder problems. A strained pec, which Vladdy says doesn't affect his swing, doesn't sound like as big a problem. Then again, Guerrero is leaving the team to make this visit, signaling a potential escalating problem. If the injury doesn't bother his swing, and he can DH all season long, why does he need to take time off to see Yocum?

We're expecting Guerrero to miss some significant time -- maybe as much as a 15-day disabled list stint. Maybe more.

Alex Gordon disabled

Alex Gordon returned from his right hip problem only to suffer further trouble with the injury. He's going on the disabled list with a cartilage tear, and the injury requires surgery. There's no word on his eventual return.

***Update -- 8:39 p.m. CST -- Gordon tore the hip labrum, and he's visiting the same Vail, Colorado doctor who performed surgery on Alex Rodriguez.

Fantasy Impact: Mike Aviles and Mark Teahen played some third with Gordon on the shelf. We'll assume Teahen takes over full-time until Gordon can return. With surgery you have to expect he'll miss at least a couple of months. That's territory for a potential release in fantasy play as Gordon hasn't produced at all this season.

Ross is boss for a day

Cody Ross finally found his power stroke in Atlanta. Ross poked his first home run of the 2009 season, going 3-3 with 4 RBI to push Florida past Atlanta. He's hitting .207 this season after batting .260 with 22 home runs in 2008.

Fantasy Impact: Ross is a full-time starter, but he's a lower-end option in fantasy play. His batting average isn't impressive, he doesn't run and he hits near the bottom of the Florida order. That means his run and RBI totals won't compare to middle-of-the order types at his position. Ross strikes out about a quarter of the time, and he produced a paltry .313 OBP in 2008. He's a stopgap option if one of your slugging starters goes down.

Aramis back, but is the back bad?

Aramis Ramirez returned to the Cubs lineup after back stiffness kept him out of a pair of games against Colorado. During his first at bat, Cubs announcer Len Kasper said Ramirez's back problems actually lingered throughout the spring.

Fantasy Impact: It's not the best news when one of the top five players at a position is dealing with a potentially chronic ailment. If Ramirez continues to miss starts here and there, he becomes an injury-risk starter whose value decreases. We still forecast Ramirez right behind A-Rod, David Wright, Evan Longoria and Miguel Cabrera (who still has eligibility this season) at third. Chipper Jones and Garrett Atkins are his primary competitors as potential top-five players at the hot corner.

Ballpark factor in fantasy baseball

Eric Walker takes a look at the difficulty of analyzing ballpark data and how statistics struggle to help make definite conclusions on the nature of a baseball stadium.

I appreciate Walker's analysis that analysis is inherently flawed. I've always believed that the players playing in the ballpark affect the statistics the park produces more than the stadium itself. Petco Park, for example, cannot escape the fact that the Padres will play in all 81 games she houses in a given year. To compare how Padre players perform at home vs. on the road is not necessarily going to give you good control data to make any conclusions, either. Some players play better on the road than at home in general. Some players play better at night than in day games. Some players randomly produce differently in different places from year to year.

Hoffman throws off mound; closer by committee in Milwaukee?

Trevor Hoffman threw off a mound on Wednesday, experiencing no issues with the oblique injury that sidelined him late in spring training.
"It's good to be back on the slope," Hoffman said. "I didn't throw as many strikes as I would have liked, but I think the key was to come out of it pain-free."

Hoffman will throw off a mound again Saturday in New York. The next step after that is to be determined, according to manager Ken Macha, but Hoffman indicated that he could join the Triple-A Nashville Sounds in Memphis as early as Tuesday to begin a Minor League rehabilitation assignment.
That means Hoffman is at least 10 days away from returning to the big leagues.

Fantasy Impact: The Brewers don't have a great option at closer after Hoffman. They need him back. Manager Ken Macha suggested that a few Brewers relievers might get chances to close games alongside de facto closer Carlos Villanueva, who has struggled in the role. Macha mentioned Todd Coffey, Seth McClung and Mark DiFelice as pitchers throwing better than Villanueva right now.

Perez to push for closer role in STL

The St. Louis Cardinals have the most interesting bullpen in baseball. With the call-up of Chris Perez, St. Louis has three options for saves. Perez will battle Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin for the closer role while Kyle McClellan likely slides into the rotation in place of the injured Chris Carpenter.

Fantasy Impact: Get. Perez. Now. He's only 23, but he can bring the heat. Perez is the sexiest option between the three. Hold your breath and hope he can string together a few solid outings to inherit the role full-time. You'll be glad you took a chance on the future relief star.

Another pothole for Street

Huston Street entered a non-save situation against the Cubs in the ninth inning and turned the game into a save situation for Jason Grilli. Street offered up a home run to Derrek Lee and two more base runners before Grilli entered to close it out. Manager Clint Hurdle said he made the move to "put the game away." Not exactly a ringing endorsement for his closer.
"I'll be fine," Street said. "They're not all going to fall in. The truth is, when we win and I have a bad outing, I don't really care. I do care because my team needs me to start having good outings, but I'm going to have good outings."
Fantasy Impact: Opponents are hitting .533 against Street. Manny Corpas, available to pitch in the ninth, was not Hurdle's choice. The Rockies have issues at the back end of the bullpen that need to be sorted out. Street is the de facto closer until his problems push Corpas, or perhaps Grilli, into the fold.

Seattle resurrections

Ichiro made his return to the Great Northwest Wednesday night after a bleeding ulcer had sidelined Japan's World Baseball Classic hero. He didn't disappoint in his first game back, going 2-5 with a grand slam and a stolen base as the Mariners whip the Angels, 11-3.

Ken Griffey Jr. also homered, lifting No. 613 of his career, his 400th as a Mariner.

Picking up his second win in the game was starter Jarrod Washburn, who looks like he's found something in that new sinker. Washburn cruised until giving up a two-run homer to Torii Hunter in the fourth, and that was it. He's 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA.

Fantasy Impact: Ichiro returns to his place as one of the premier average/speed threats in all of baseball. He's a starter in every fantasy baseball format.

Washburn is a sleeper for a rebound season. He hasn't made much of a fantasy impact since 2005, and even that year he only finished 8-8. With a new pitch and a 2-0 start on a 7-2 Mariners team you should ride the wave while it lasts.

Rasmus starts, Ludwick swats

Don't look now, but Colby Rasmus is playing every day for the St. Louis Cardinals. Rasmus started for fourth straight game, hit a run-scoring double and scored two runs. The Cardinals cruise past Arizona, 12-7, with Ryan Ludwick swatting his third home run.

Fantasy Impact: A 2008 All-Star, Ludwick is the only Redbird outfielder with an everyday job. Rasmus started in center field in place of Rick Ankiel. In a crowded Cardinals outfield that could see Rasmus, Ankiel and Chris Duncan platoon for one another all season, Rasmus likely does not command enough fantasy value to start at this time. He's even available on a number of waiver wires, which is surprising given his pedigree as a 22-year-old with major upside. Take a flier soon, or you might be disappointed this one got away.

Can't hit Hampton

Astros starter Mike Hampton looked strong in a 4-1 win at Pittsburgh. Hampton allowed just four hits over six innings and struck out eight. He's 1-1 on the year.

Fantasy Impact: Tough to give advice on Hampton. Flip a coin -- heads, you pick him up off the waiver wire; tails, you don't. He's really an unknown at this point of his career having thrown 147 1/3 innings since 2005. He's 37 this year, and he hasn't put together a great season of pitching since 1999. That's ten years ago. Still, if your staff is hurting for a wild card, call us crazy, but Hampton might fill a void. The Astros are hoping so.

Kinsler cycle

Ian Kinsler's hot start just went supernova. The Rangers' second baseman goes 6-6 and hits for the cycle in a 19-6 pasting of Baltimore. Kinsler is now hitting .474 with three homers.

Fantasy Impact: There are those who consider Kinsler to be the best second sacker in all of baseball. We'll take Chase Utley for his consistency and power numbers, although Kinsler and Brandon Phillips play close seconds (no pun intended). If you think Utley was an injury risk at the start of the year due to his recovery from hip surgery, consider that Kinsler has never played more than 130 games in a single season.