Tampa Bay's devastating double

A loss for Tampa Bay tonight might be devastating. If it happens, forget all the stats you'll hear about a team dropping the first two games at home and then attempting to come back to win an ALCS and just hear this. For the Rays, losing at home is something they simply don't do, and falling in the first two at Tropicana Field would have to shake the team's confidence considerably.

Tampa hasn't dropped back-to-back games at the Trop since losing their first two of three to the Yankees on September first and second. Those two losses provided the Rays with their first losing series in St. Pete since falling in two of three against Houston from June 20-22. Prior to that, you have to go back to a three-game set with the White Sox from April 18-20 to find the last time the Rays fell in a home series. The last time they lost two in a row at home prior to the Yankees "twin" wins in September? It was a pair of losses to the Yankees back on April 14 and 15, which was part of an overarching slide that saw Tampa Bay fall six times in nine games.

If the Rays lose games one and two, they'll fall into near unprecedented territory. It might put major chinks in a young team's confidence. After losing those first two of their series against the Yankees in early September, the Rays got game three. Then they turned around and lost three straight on the road in Toronto. The good news? Tampa next visited Boston, and after the BoSox took game one to make it four straight road losses for the Rays, Tampa took the next two.

Down (a bit) on Upton's defense

B.J. Upton appears to be a very good defensive center fielder. He threw out 16 runners in 2008, almost double the number of any other center fielder. He appears to have a lot of range. His range rating (2.84) was third in baseball this year for his position, behind only the speedy Carlos Gomez (3.15) and the somewhat surprising Aaron Rowand (2.95). Upton's speed allows him to play shallow and get to a number of balls other player couldn't reach.

That said, he might be lacking in a single area. I think he plays too shallow. Maybe the Rays encourage this, thinking Upton can make up ground behind him with his impressive speed, but it doesn't seem to do so in actuality. Two cases in point - I've seen Upton now have no chance on what would've been potentially routine fly balls this postseason, because he was playing too shallow. The first came against the White Sox, the second came tonight with a Coco Crisp ground-rule double in the ninth of game two in the ALDS. Upton also carries a below average zone rating for center fielders. That means he's not getting to a number of balls considered to be hit to his area.

Are the balls he struggles to get hit mostly over his head? Baseball should follow this stat (balls hit over outfielders head) to help us determine how often a fielder tends to be in position. There could also be stats kept on balls that get past fielders to their left and right. We'd get a pretty good idea of which players overplay in certain directions versus other fielders. Tendencies of incorrectly overplaying fielders could be examined regarding how teams position their players for certain batters, pitchers, etc. Just a thought.

Update: Upton just ran one down at the track - another ball that almost got over his head.

Not even seeing about Seattle

Buster Olney says Athletics assistant general manager David Forst will not interview with Mariners officials regarding their GM opening.

"There's going to be plenty of room for growth for David in the Oakland organization," said Billy Beane, the Oakland general manager, on Friday. "He wants to stay here and be a part of what we've started."

I'm shocked he would flatly turn down the opportunity. Does that mean the Marniners organization is not attractive? I can't believe staying in small-market Oakland as second in command could beat running a team in Seattle.