Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Wringing hands over Hanley

Hanley Ramirez owners have to be breathing a sigh of relief. The 95-mph fastball that hit him on his wright wrist did not cause a break. Eric Karabell says there's nothing to worry about, maybe. He doesn't like Hanley's slow start, and he's non-committal regarding what it means for the season.
Ramirez, 25, comes off his first 30/30 season, and has a career .307 batting average, so expectations are obviously sky-high. He has three stolen bases, but has also been caught stealing the same number of times. It's still early, but if you used the first pick on the guy, you expected he'd be among the leaders on ESPN's Player Rater. Currently Ramirez is No. 93, and not in the top five among shortstops (behind Jason Bartlett, Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Marco Scutaro and Asdrubal Cabrera). The last thing the slumping Marlins, and fantasy owners, need is an injury.

With no apparent broken bones, Ramirez might miss a few games, and this potentially large story shouldn't be a big deal. Then again, we've seen what wrist injuries have done to power hitters in the recent past, notably the production of Hideki Matsui and Derrek Lee. Ramirez is much younger and more talented -- he was, after all, the first player taken in most drafts -- but any decrease in power is going to affect a whole lot of fantasy owners. As it is, Ramirez is someone who was being watched to start with, and an injury can't help.
Fantasy Impact: Let's actually take a stab at the signifcance of all this. If the wrist is ok and heals quickly, there's no reason to think Ramirez is going to have a sub-standard season. He's slumped in the past. In fact, he slumped for about a month after last season's All-Star game and still put up some of the best numbers of his career. That included 125 runs, the most of any player in the big leagues in 2008. While he's got more pressure on him hitting in the middle of the Marlins order, Ramirez is only 25 years old, meaning the best years of his career are in front of him, not behind him in the most likely case. That means this year should be as good or better than last year, and if it's not, it's still going to be a good year for a shortstop in most regards. Don't freak. Ramirez is a star.

Talk about inappropriate

MLB-TV's Matt Vasgersian tried to make light of a scary injury to Brad Hawpe, and it backfired badly. File this one under: "trying too hard to create an 'anchor moment.'" Just a foolish thing to do.

Berkman's struggles

Lance Berkman provided a solo homer in a 4-1 Astros win over the Reds Monday night. His home run total is up to five on the year, but he's still struggling mightily at the plate with a .174 batting average.

Berkman is not just making outs, he's striking out at an alarming rate. For his career, Berkman has struck out in exactly 20 percent of his at bats. Last season he whiffed 19.5 percent of the time. In his sub-par 2007, the worst batting average year of his career, Berkman struck out 22 percet of the time. In 2009, he's going down on strikes in a whopping 33 percent of his at bats.

Fantasy Impact: These numbers are unprecedented over the course of Berkman's career. Looking back to 2004, Berkman's worst strikeout rate for a stand-alone month of a season is 27 percent (22 in 81 at bats) back in 2004. That season, when Berkman was just 28 years old, he made corrections and ended up with one of the best stat lines of his career. Now 33, he still has the ability to correct his 2009 season, but career highs in strikeouts often signal the beginning of the end. Owners will have to hope this is just a career-low april for the otherwise slugging first baseman, because you're not going to get fair compensation by trading him away now.