Saturday, September 25, 2010

Reynolds' bad rap

Everyone knows Mark Reynolds is extremely strikeout prone. He owns the three highest totals for strikeouts in a single season, including last year's record-smashing 223. Many fantasy baseball managers let that slide in 2009 because Reynolds performed in breakout fashion, walloping 44 home runs and still managing a slash line of .260/.349/.543, respectable numbers for most power hitters even in spite of the ridiculous whiff numbers.

This year, Reynolds has still managed decent power numbers with 51 extra base hits, but his sky-high strikeout numbers and plummeting batting average have reduced him to marginal fantasy starter rather than the power force he appeared to be in 2009. Reynolds is in jeopardy of a record-setting year of futility in potentially becoming the first every-day player to have a higher strikeout total than batting average (currently 206 K total and .199 average) for the season. His BABIP of .322 for his career is a bit on the high side in terms of good luck. This year's BABIP is .255, which is highly unlucky.

Fantasy Impact: Reynolds goes from a guy who looks like a perennial keeper in your typical keeper league to back in the draft heap for 2011. The good news is that BABIP should come up more in line of his career numbers moving forward, as his high strikeout numbers had never produced a batting average below .239. Bringing Reynolds BABIP back toward the norm leaves a would-be .224 average for this season and he would produce at a .236 clip in 2010 at his career BABIP. That's below Reynlods .243 career batting average, which means last season is still looking like a career year rather than a harbinger of future success. Reynolds simply slipped back to the pack in 2010, despite his 32 home runs leading the third base position. If your league keeps between five and six keepers, he's on the fringe for 2011.