Thursday, March 5, 2009

Banged-up BoSox on the mend

It must be hip to have a hip problem. First Chase Utley, then A-Rod and then, well, before A-Rod, actually, there was Mike Lowell.
Lowell is progressing nicely from right hip surgery and could play his first exhibition game "within a week," according to manager Terry Francona.

"We're getting into that area now where we can maybe think about DHing [him] a couple of at-bats, and then [have him] play third," Francona said. "But I bet you were getting close enough where it will be within a week. He's doing good. He's doing fine. He's running the bases. Every step he's supposed to do, he's done. We'll do our best to ease him in as much as we can where he gets comfortable baseball-wise."
The Red Sox need Lowell now as much as ever. He was really their fallback option at third this season when any chance to sign Mark Teixeira was nixed when the Yankees signed him. If Tex went to Boston, Kevin Youkilis would slide to third and Lowell would be the odd man out.

J.D. Drew is also back to baseball after a cortisone shot in his back.
In fact, Drew said that his lower back has been at its best of late when he's on the field. It's normally when he's sitting at home or doing some other idle activity when it tightens up.

"It seemed like the more I got it loose and moving around, I wasn't really having any issues out there playing," said Drew. "That was encouraging. But it is aggravating to be sitting at home and what we call dancing in the chair, back and forth, trying to get in a position that doesn't really stiffen up. I had good days and bad days, and hopefully, this will give me the benefit of getting freed up and having a lot of good days."

The purpose of the shot was to get some scar tissue out of the facet joint and reduce the inflammation.
Drew played just 109 games last season with injury problems, but he did hit the 140-game mark each of the two seasons prior.

Fantasy Impact: Drew and Lowell are big time gambles in fantasy ball this year. If you draft one of the two, chances are you got them as a high risk, high reward type in the second half of your draft. Take other third baseman and outfielders before drafting Lowell or Drew. Ideally, Lowell is more of a corner infielder or a backup while Drew is a fourth outfielder who hits like a No. 3 if he can hit that 140-game plateau.

Yankees third base options

Peter Gammons, commenting on the possibility of Alex Rodriguez missing an extended period of time this season with his hip injury, brought up two possible trade candidates for New York in terms of replacement third baseman. Adrian Beltre, who's coming back from a shoulder problem, is likely on the block in Seattle. Garrett Atkins, who has a one year deal through 2009 in Colorado might also be attainable via trade.

Update: Oddly enough, Atkins was scratched from today's Rockies game due to a hip flexor injury.

If A-Rod can't come back...

Boston's coverage of Alex Rodriguez's hip injury included this forward-looking musing on the outside chance that the ailment becomes career-threatening.
The Rodriguez news, changing by the hour, has more immediate impact on the Sox. A-Rod seems certain to miss the beginning of the season, could be out until late summer, and may have a career-threatening condition with $275 million still owed from the Yankees.
While that money could impact the Yankees over the years, with YES Network money and the New Yankee Stadium set to open in April, I don't see New York entering any financial straits, perhaps, ever.

Winners and losers in Manny deal

I find the LA Times coverage of Manny Ramirez's signing odd, if not overly cynical. The Times' headline on Wednesday's agreement between the Dodgers and Ramirez: Manny Ramirez deal with Dodgers: Who won?
Bill Plaschke says Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti was the big winner, "correctly reading the market and holding firm despite a winter's worth of criticism.''

You can follow Plaschke, by the way, at twitter.com/latbillplaschke.

Jeff Passan of YahooSports! writes that all the stalling still didn't give the Dodgers enough time to recognize "the gravity of their mistake.''

As for Ramirez, he reportedly will appear at a news conference tomorrow in Arizona, but he spoke to T.J. Simers last night and revealed that he was close to returning to Mannywood.
I guess it's not just the paper that has the cynical view of the deal being between enemy combatants "The Dodgers" and "Manny Ramirez." Jeff Passan obviously sees it that way, too, that the Dodgers and Ramirez were at war over the contract, and there's obviously a winner and a loser between the two.

That's hard to say, and it's not really what negotiating is about. I remember early on in my career, when negotiating my work contracts, I was told the best deal resulted in both sides feeling like they could've done better, meaning each gave a little to get closer to what they wanted. What someone wants vs. what they get is not necessarily winning and losing. It's what's attainable vs. what isn't attainable at the time. The Dodgers, in a bad economy, decided they could only spend so much. Manny Ramirez found he couldn't get more money elsewhere and took the best offer he could get from Los Angeles.

There's no winner or loser here. Ramirez got a ton of money ($45M over 2 years). The Dodgers got one of the top offense outfielders in baseball. If anyone lost, it is the National League West, and perhaps whoever else offered up Ramirez a contract.

Even with a torn labrum A-Rod should shine

So Alex Rodriguez will attempt to play through pain. A torn labrum in his right hip could eventually require surgery, but A-Rod will tough it out for now.
"There's two courses of action concerning what he has," Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman said Thursday from Tampa, Fla. "There is treat it conservatively, which would imply rest, exercise and treatment. Or you can treat it aggressively, which is by surgery. At this point in time, we are going to go the conservative route."
There have been comparisons of A-Rod's injury to Chase Utley's. Utley played last year with his own hip injury and is just getting back to playing baseball again after surgery in late November.
Recently we have seen other high-profile baseball players undergo surgery to address labral injuries, including Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell. Utley, for one, had labral surgery in late November and is optimistic that he'll be ready for Opening Day. "Optimistic" is not "certain," though, and the time lapse between Utley's surgery and Opening Day will be about 19 weeks.
So, let's see how much Utley's numbers suffered from 2007 to 2008 to see what kind of impact we might see in A-Rod's 2009 season, assuming he can play through the pain like Utley did.

Utley
2006 - AB: 658 R: 131 HR: 32 RBI: 102 SB: 15 OBA: .379 SLG: .527 AVG: .309
2007 - AB: 530 R: 104 HR: 22 RBI: 103 SB: 9 OBA: .410 SLG: .566 AVG: .332
2008 - AB: 607 R: 113 HR: 33 RBI: 104 SB: 14 OBA: .380 SLG: .535 AVG: .292

A-Rod
2006 - AB: 572 R: 113 HR: 35 RBI: 121 SB: 15 OBA: .392 SLG: .523 AVG: .290
2007 - AB: 583 R: 143 HR: 54 RBI: 156 SB: 24 OBA: .422 SLG: .645 AVG: .314
2008 - AB: 510 R: 104 HR: 35 RBI: 103 SB: 18 OBA: .392 SLG: .573 AVG: .302

Utley's numbers over the past two years were most significantly impacted with his broken hand back in 2007. That injury caused him to miss several weeks in the late summer, retarding what might have been a career year. That said, Utley might've been on a growth trend that was further retarded in 2008 with the hip injury. His numbers in 2008 included a better slugging percentage than in 2006 and a better batting average, showing that despite the hip injury he was still playing at a very high level.

Of note: Utley stole 14 bases in 2008 despite the hip problem, which was just a couple of bags short of his career high and one short of his 2006 total when he batted 51 more times.

Fantasy Impact: If he can tolerate the pain, A-Rod has every ability to play with this injury and play well. Utley did not experience much of an impact in terms of matching his stellar numbers from previous seasons. A-Rod shouldn't either. If you think it's worth risking an eventual surgery or midseason shutdown, A-Rod is still a first round draft pick and high-end candidate to anchor your fantasy team's offense.