Friday, March 6, 2009

Velez might get to run

With Dave Roberts released by the San Francisco Giants, a roster spot opens for one of a number of younger players. A San Francisco Chronicle writer thinks that slot has Eugenio Velez's name all over it.
This is a really good sign for Eugenio Velez, the team's most influential baserunner and a potential backup at either second base or the outfield. It now seems likely that Velez will make the team, if for no other reason than the speed he brings off the bench.
Velez still fights for time with Emmanuel Burris and Kevin Frandsen. That means his fantasy value is limited to steals until he cracks the lineup on a regular basis. Even then he might be limited to merely stolen bases.

Still don't bet on Tampa

The Tampa Bay Rays have certainly moved up in the world. Last year the Rays faced some of the longest odds in baseball in terms of winning the world series. Many sports books had the Rays between 150/1 and 200/1. This year, Bodog has Tampa at 18/1 odds.

The Yankees, at 4/1, are odds-on favorites. The Red Sox follow with 13/2 odds. That means Bodog doesn't expect Tampa to make the playoffs.

In the National League, the Cubs own the best odds at 17/2 with the Phillies coming in second at 14/1.

No naming rights, at least on these jerseys

There's no such thing as freedom of speech when it comes to buying personalized jerseys from MLB.com. There you can get A-Rod's No. 13 jersey with almost anything you like on it, but don't ask for A-Fraud. That's a no-no.
Any fan hoping to make fun of New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez can no longer get a No. 13 Yankees jersey with the word "A-Fraud" on the back.

MLB.com has banned the new A-Rod nickname from the personalization feature on replica jerseys on MLB.com. MLB.com spokesman Matt Gould told CNBC that the league does not allow fans to personalize products with anything that is deemed inappropriate, derogatory or profane.

Fans haven't been able to personalize their jerseys on the site with the word "steroids" since 2005, but as of this afternoon, fans can get A-Rod's drug of choice, "Boli," on the back of jerseys. They can also get "Sucart," the last name of A-Rod's cousin, who has been part of the story.
Here's guessing "Boli" and "Sucart" won't draw nearly the interested that A-Fraud was getting.

Requesting the Cubs

An interesting article at MinnPost.com explains how baseball scheduling is done today. I had no idea that teams make special solicitations as specific as requesting the Cubs for a home series.
It's far too late to make any radical changes to the 2009 Major League Baseball schedule. So Twins President Dave St. Peter offered two special requests to pass along to the firm that produces the 2010 sked: No road trips longer than nine games, and one interleague visit by the Cubs. "Because they do draw fans," St. Peter said.
Stunning, really. The article goes on to explain that most requests are more substantial, such as the Rockies needing to be out of Denver during last year's Democratic National Convention. Makes sense.

America or else

Tommy Lasorda gave Team USA a pep talk prior to the World Baseball Classic.
"We cannot allow those clubs to beat us. It's our game," the former Los Angeles Dodgers manager said Thursday. "Remember one thing: In your hearts, you better pull for the USA or you may not get into heaven."

"It's our game. Baseball is America's game. It doesn't belong to the Italians or the Cubans or the Koreans or the Japanese," he said. "It's our game, and we're not going to let them beat us."
Lasorda might be xenophobic when it comes to baseball, but he's willing to flip the switch for this year's world tournament despite his hostility toward everyone but the USA.
Lasorda, the Hall of Fame manager and Classic global ambassador, was there with Major League Baseball executive vice president of business Tim Brosnan and Empire State Building general manager Jim Connors for the official lighting ceremony of the Classic.

That evening, once the sun dipped below the Hudson River to the west, the Empire State Building was geared up to shine red, green, blue and yellow on each of the four sides of the building in honor of the World Baseball Classic colors.

"The colors on the building shows it's big-time," said Lasorda. "All of the country now will know about the Classic."
Yes, all of the country, indeed. Not all of the world. I'm guessing Lasorda wished that building was made up of the three primary colors. Well, his three primary colors of red, white and blue.

Fat Fausto

It's hip to have a hip problem, and Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona was well ahead of the trend with last year's hobbler which caused him to miss two months. It's not the hip, however, that was the concern when Cleveland opened spring training.
Fausto Carmona said he did report to spring training overweight, but is in better condition now.

"I've lost a few pounds," said Carmona, dripping sweat after his postgame sprints Wednesday. "I'm feeling much better."

Carmona, listed at 6-4 and 230 pounds, threw two scoreless innings Wednesday in the Tribe's 5-4 exhibition victory over the Cubs.

"Mentally, I've been just trying to throw the ball to the middle of the plate and not try to do too much," said Carmona, who walked 70 and struck out 58 last year.
If Carmona isn't keeping his weight in check, his stats could continue to take that hip check they suffered last year.

Fantasy Analysis: Two years ago, Carmona was hip as a fantasy staff ace. He won 19 games, and he finished fourth in Cy Young voting. His numbers, however, did not overwhelm. He gives up a high number of base runners for a top-tier pitcher, and he doesn't strike people out. At best, Carmona is a three-category starter in a five-category league, and that's if he can keep that WHIP down. He's no better than a middle-round option at this point.

Skipping on Schumaker

The Cardinals' "Schumaker at second" project continues with the pint-sized outfielder adjusting to his assignment in the pivot.
Schumaker misplayed a couple of routine choppers Sunday, suffering the first setback in his transition from outfield back to infield.

“Those ground balls the other day are outs,” Schumaker said. “Pitchers expect those balls to be out and so do I. So I have to get that down.”

On the first play, he stayed back on the ball, then rushed his catch-and-flip to get the force-out at second base. He cuffed the ball as a result.

On the second play, Schumaker backed up on a chopper -– and the last bounce ate him alive.

“Once I backed up, I was praying the ball would go into my glove,” he said after the game. “It didn’t.”
Good luck, Schu. Here's hoping for your sake things work out, but I'm not entirely certain you're the right fit for the Redbirds at second long-term. And it's not your glove I'm worried about. It's your bat.

My point about Schumaker's bat is this: last season the average Major Leaguer hit .260 with a slugging percentage of .413. That means a player's isolated slugging percentage was 153 points higher than his batting average. Schumaker's ISOSLG was just 104 points above his batting average (.406-.302=.104). He gets slap hits, but a .300 hitter without pop has a lot less impact on a game than a guy who hits .280 with average power.

Neither Adam Kennedy (.092 SLG) nor Aaron Miles (.081 ISOSLG) were better options than Schumaker bat-wise at second for St. Louis. That said, Schumaker offers very little pop, and his lack of base stealing and less-than-ideal OBA for hitting leadoff (.359) make him expendable down the road.

In fact, all of these second baseman put up better "pop" numbers than Schumaker last season (ISOSLG):

Mike Fontenot, CHC (.167)
Ricky Weeks, MIL (.161)
Kaz Matsui, HOU (.134)

That's just the NL Central. Freddie Sanchez, PIT (.100) was the only 2B in the Central with less pop than Schu last year, but his career ISOSLG is .117. Schumaker's minor league ISOSLG is only .095.

That said, the Cardinals must be considering Schumaker their best option right now at second base but not necessarily for the future, and certainly not considering he is already 29. You can find players much younger than Schu who have more upside. I like Skip, but not enough to bank on him long-term.

Nasty Boys part II?

All three of the Cardinals closing candidates -- Chris Perez, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin -- looked good against the Dominican Republic today.
Veteran Ryan Franklin, dazzling in his first outing, retired all six men he faced. Young Chris Perez, who had struggled in his first two outings, had a perfect inning; Josh Kinney, who had walked four hitters in two previous innings, didn't walk anybody and Jason Motte worked his third straight scoreless inning.
That has me wondering: might the Cardinals end up going with a three-man closer like the Cincinnati Reds of yesteryear? I'm not saying Perez / Motte / Franklin will ever be as talented as Randy Myers / Rob Dibble / Norm Charlton, but maybe it's time to bring back the three-headed committee approach.

Now that I look at it, Charlton wasn't much of a closer. Myers did most of the work for the 1990 Reds while Dibble closed out more games in 1991. Tim Layana equaled Charlton with two saves in '90! Ted Power had the third most for Cincy in '91 with three. What a bullpen!

Can the Cardinals-Pedro talk

The buzz centered around a meeting between the Cardinals and Pedro Martinez on Thursday morning, but as soon as the headlines rolled around for Friday, it was over. Pedro Martinez is not, and will not become, a closer candidate for the Redbirds (last graph).
Intrigue over approaching former Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez as a potential closer will go no farther. The club now views projected set-up man Ryan Franklin as its alternative to Chris Perez and Jason Motte should the younger pitchers not assert themselves this spring.
Something tells me Pedro still wants to start. If he can get a gig as a fifth starter somewhere else, he'll take it.

Fantasy Impact: Much has been made of Jason Motte's makeup as a future closer, but what's not to like about Perez? This battle could go on and on and on.