Friday, March 6, 2009

Skipping on Schumaker

The Cardinals' "Schumaker at second" project continues with the pint-sized outfielder adjusting to his assignment in the pivot.
Schumaker misplayed a couple of routine choppers Sunday, suffering the first setback in his transition from outfield back to infield.

“Those ground balls the other day are outs,” Schumaker said. “Pitchers expect those balls to be out and so do I. So I have to get that down.”

On the first play, he stayed back on the ball, then rushed his catch-and-flip to get the force-out at second base. He cuffed the ball as a result.

On the second play, Schumaker backed up on a chopper -– and the last bounce ate him alive.

“Once I backed up, I was praying the ball would go into my glove,” he said after the game. “It didn’t.”
Good luck, Schu. Here's hoping for your sake things work out, but I'm not entirely certain you're the right fit for the Redbirds at second long-term. And it's not your glove I'm worried about. It's your bat.

My point about Schumaker's bat is this: last season the average Major Leaguer hit .260 with a slugging percentage of .413. That means a player's isolated slugging percentage was 153 points higher than his batting average. Schumaker's ISOSLG was just 104 points above his batting average (.406-.302=.104). He gets slap hits, but a .300 hitter without pop has a lot less impact on a game than a guy who hits .280 with average power.

Neither Adam Kennedy (.092 SLG) nor Aaron Miles (.081 ISOSLG) were better options than Schumaker bat-wise at second for St. Louis. That said, Schumaker offers very little pop, and his lack of base stealing and less-than-ideal OBA for hitting leadoff (.359) make him expendable down the road.

In fact, all of these second baseman put up better "pop" numbers than Schumaker last season (ISOSLG):

Mike Fontenot, CHC (.167)
Ricky Weeks, MIL (.161)
Kaz Matsui, HOU (.134)

That's just the NL Central. Freddie Sanchez, PIT (.100) was the only 2B in the Central with less pop than Schu last year, but his career ISOSLG is .117. Schumaker's minor league ISOSLG is only .095.

That said, the Cardinals must be considering Schumaker their best option right now at second base but not necessarily for the future, and certainly not considering he is already 29. You can find players much younger than Schu who have more upside. I like Skip, but not enough to bank on him long-term.

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