Sunday, May 18, 2008

Sunday silence

Sunday offers a bunch of average to below-average pitching match ups, but there's one that stands out:

CLE: Lee (6-0, 0.67) vs.
CIN: Volquez (6-1, 1.12)

These two standouts seem to have everything going their way. Volquez owns the better stuff, but Lee's the best pitcher in baseball right now. It's too bad this isn't the Sunday night primetime game, which pits this so-so match up:

NYM: Perez (3-3, 4.61)
NYY: Wang (6-1, 2.90)

Wang is the heavy favorite in that one, and last year he dominated the Mets (1-0, 2.18 ERA).

Not very Sori

Alfonso Soriano is heating up like the weather in Chicago. He's hit seven home runs this week and four in his last two games. His batting average was at .188 entering last weekend's series with Arizona. Now he's hitting .265.

Fantasy Impact: Ride the wave, but proceed with caution. Soriano's battled a number of leg injuries in the last couple of seasons, and he doesn't look too good running the bases or chasing fly balls in left. He's healthy enough to hit, but how healthy is he?

Livan on the edge

Livan Hernandez continues to defy the odds that say he's about to slip back to mediocrity. The 33-year-old right hander pitched well enough to win his seventh game (perfect through five innings) on Saturday night, but lost his second, instead.

Hernandez's line for the night:
7.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Hernandez's numbers over the past few seasons show a steady decline in production since arguably his career best season in 2003 with Montreal: 15-10, 3.20 ERA. That he's pitching more like he did that year (when he was 28) than he is like his most recent seasons is a huge surprise. Hernandez' ERA is now at 3.88, and his record is 6-2. A closer look at his numbers, however, reveals cracks in the foundation. In 65 innings he's allowed 80 hits. He's giving up a home run per start, and while his walk numbers are improved, they're approaching a career low while his hits allowed are approaching a career high. It would seem only a matter of time before the walk rate balloons back to normal, pushing up the ERA while restoring his record closer to .500 (his career norm).

Fantasy Impact: Hernandez has started strong in his return to the American League. Don't expect it to last. Most of his success has come against light-hitting teams, and his second tour through the A.L. should prove a bit more difficult. Treat him like any pitcher switching leagues; expect less success as the year goes on.

Gonzo for road games

Padres 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez was hitless in his last 15 at bats before launching his 10th home run of the season in the fourth inning off of Seattle's Erik Bedard on Saturday. Gonzalez went 1-4 on the night after rocketing a line out to right in the ninth against Mariner closer J.J. Putz.

Fantasy Impact: Gonzalez rarely slumps, and he hits a majority of his home runs on the road. Eight of his 10 bombs this year are away from spacious Petco Park. Last year he hit 20 of his 30 round trippers on the road. Imagine what he could do with a different organization.

Will the real Shaun Marcum...

...please stand, or sit? All season long, Shaun Marcum's seemingly pitched over his head. Or not. If you take a look at his minor league stats, Marcum's displayed the kind of pedigree built for success at the major league level: striking out a batter per inning. Sunday at Philadelphia is a huge test for the 2nd-year right hander. Pitch well against arguably the best lineup in baseball, and Marcum's first-quarter success looks legitimate. Struggle, and well, the "he's not overpowering enough to be successful" naysayers will say "nay."

Fantasy Impact: Keep a close eye on this one. Pitching in a bandbox ballpark against that lineup forces Marcum to locate his decent stuff as well as he ever has. If he does, watch out! He's becoming a fantasy steal. If he doesn't, nobody expected this anyway.

CP works the... 7th?

Chris Perez, the Cardinals call-up who replaced an injured Jason Isringhausen, hit 100 mph on the radar gun in his MLB debut. While he appears an obvious candidate for the closer role, St. Louis used him in the 7th inning of Saturday's 9-8 extra-inning win over Tampa Bay.

Fantasy Impact: Ryan Franklin remains the Cardinals' closer while Isringhausen is on the shelf. Russ Springer is expected to pick up a save or two as well. If those two falter before Isringhausen returns, Perez might get a look. Then again, Perez is talented enough that he might get a look even before Isringhausen returns. You have to figure Tony La Russa will exhaust each an every opportunity to win games.