Livan on the edge

Livan Hernandez continues to defy the odds that say he's about to slip back to mediocrity. The 33-year-old right hander pitched well enough to win his seventh game (perfect through five innings) on Saturday night, but lost his second, instead.

Hernandez's line for the night:
7.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Hernandez's numbers over the past few seasons show a steady decline in production since arguably his career best season in 2003 with Montreal: 15-10, 3.20 ERA. That he's pitching more like he did that year (when he was 28) than he is like his most recent seasons is a huge surprise. Hernandez' ERA is now at 3.88, and his record is 6-2. A closer look at his numbers, however, reveals cracks in the foundation. In 65 innings he's allowed 80 hits. He's giving up a home run per start, and while his walk numbers are improved, they're approaching a career low while his hits allowed are approaching a career high. It would seem only a matter of time before the walk rate balloons back to normal, pushing up the ERA while restoring his record closer to .500 (his career norm).

Fantasy Impact: Hernandez has started strong in his return to the American League. Don't expect it to last. Most of his success has come against light-hitting teams, and his second tour through the A.L. should prove a bit more difficult. Treat him like any pitcher switching leagues; expect less success as the year goes on.