Thursday, August 20, 2009

Wagging Wagner

The New York Mets pitched Billy Wagner for the first time in about a year, and the results look pretty good. Wagner works a two-strikeout eighth inning for the Mets against the Braves in a 3-2 loss. Wagner did not factor into the decision, but he did throw about as well as he possibly could, needing 14 pitches to retire the side.

Fantasy Impact: Francisco Rodriguez is the guy the Mets acquired to fill Wagner's spot, and he's going to remain the Mets closer as far as anyone can tell. Wagner is considered trade bait at this point of his Mets tenure. Pitch well enough, and perhaps a suitor comes along that is willing to take the remainder of his $10.5 M salary for this season and $8 M option for next season. If he continues to pitch this well, the Mets are more likely to find a trade partner, and Wagner's fantasy value may climb to that of a full-time closer in September.

J-Roll in a hole

The Phillies not only have a closer that can't close in Brad Lidge, but they also have a leadoff man who can't (or at least shouldn't) hit at the top of the order. That someone is Jimmy Rollins, who seemed to be a shoe-in as a top-flight shortstop this year. He's still an excellent option at the position, but with a batting average stuck in the .240s and an OBP just 50 points higher, Rollins is hitting like a No. 8 hitter. There are 14 Phillies getting on base more often than Rollins, and three of those players are pitchers. One of those pitchers, Cliff Lee, has just 45 career at bats. Another, Jamie Moyer, turns 47 in November.

Fantasy Impact: If you own Rollins, you've got to be thankful that Charlie Manuel is stubborn enough to keep his players in their assigned roles rather than the roles they're cut out for. Rollins benefits statistically from hitting at the top of the Phillies order. With better players hitting behind him, he stands a better chance of producing despite his struggles. We've been waiting for Rollins to turn things around all year. He's running out of time.

Readdressing Lee

Earlier this year we talked about the trouble in considering Cliff Lee a No. 1 starter in fantasy baseball. Several things contributed to our analysis that Lee should not be regarded as a top-flight pitcher, among them: an average K/9 rate and the dangerous afterglow following a career year.

All things change, however, and Lee's move to the National League has Spitting Seeds rethinking his value down the stretch. Lee tossed a stellar two-hit complete game on Wednesday, dropping his NL ERA to 0.72. Lee's K/9 has climbed by three full points to 9.3/9, putting him on par with elite-level pitchers. That's what a National League full of hitters that have rarely seen you can do for your numbers. Just ask CC Sabathia.

Fantasy Impact: Lee is back at fantasy ace status until further notice. He's 4-0 since joining the Phillies and will certainly get Cy Young consideration even with just a couple of full months in the NL.

Baseball labor peace in 2011?

It looks like there are no issues at this point for baseball's 2011 labor agreement, but with the two sides potentially not getting together until the months leading up to deal time, something could easily pop up. The Sporting News makes mention of owners potentially pushing for a salary cap.
The MLBPA, historically viewed as the strongest of all the major sports unions, has successfully beaten back efforts to install a cap system.

Nevertheless, MLB owners "have been trying for one for 20 years," said labor-side attorney James Quinn, outside counsel to the National Basketball Players Association and the NFL Players Association, who has worked for all four major players unions. "I am sure they will try again."
Here's wondering if the owners have a better shot at a cap in 2011 if the recession holds on for a couple more years. Certainly owners would argue from the standpoint that decreased revenue streams means a cap is necessary.