AJacks' achilles

Let me be the second to call him AJax; that was accomplished on April 12th by a Royals-Tigers blogger. Let me be the first to remind you that being called Ajax has its problems. You may remember in Greek mythology Ajax was the warrior of greatest stature, but he was not the greatest Greek warrior. While he put up great numbers killing 28 Trojans at the battle of Troy, he didn't quite make it to the Trojan Horse, the official Greek Plan B after their powerful army had failed them.

Like his namesake, the Tigers' Austin Jackson (.369 AVG, 45 H, .421 OBP, 5 SB) is putting up incredible numbers in his rookie season, making him look like a steal in the Curtis Granderson (.225 AVG, .311 OBP) trade. Such in-credible numbers are, in fact, not credible.

Jackson leads the majors in at bats (122) and hits (45) and is tied for the American League lead in triples with three. He's getting on base frequently at the top of the Tigers order and has stolen five bags. This is all-time rookie-of-the-year type stuff, and, as I pointed out on my blog prior to the season, it's unlikely to last. At that time, I compared Jackson to more of a Carlos Gomez-type than an Andrew McCutchen-type.

AJax also leads the majors in BABIP and strikeouts, which is the molotov cocktail of a hitting fraud. As far as we know, the original Ajax never resorted to IEDs to get his fighting done. What's so concerning about the Tiger's rookie is just how high those numbers are. His BABIP of .523 is so absurdly high that second place David Freese trails him by 79 points. In recent seasons league average usually falls right around .300 for BABIP, placing Jackson 223 points above the norm.

Last season's league leaders in BABIP were: D. Wright (.394), Ichiro (.384), H. Ramirez (.379) and J. Mauer (.373)

That's great company for Jackson but rather lofty expectations considering he is a 23-year-old rookie. Bringing Jackson down to league average for BABIP returns a batting average of .211, and even if he hits like 2009 David Wright the rest of the year he's hitting no better than .278 from here on out.

Jackson's 35 strikeouts prove more alarming. He's whiffing 29 percent of the time, eight points above league average. Of the 2009 BABIP leaders, only David Wright can even approach that number. Jackson struck out 22 percent of the time in Triple-A last year and in Double-A two years ago when he produced averages of .300 and .285 respectively. These numbers, however, indicate he will slip back toward the mean in terms of his batting average, making that .278 mark anticipatory.

Fantasy Impact: All of this likely brings Jackson back to the pack as we move through May and into June. He's a good sell-high candidate who can produce at a respectable-enough level to maintain third or fourth outfielder status in most fantasy formats; he's obviously not as ho-hum as Carlos Gomez, but he's still no Andrew McCutchen. Hey, the original Ajax was no better than second fiddle himself.