Showing posts with label rookie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rookie. Show all posts

Thursday, May 6, 2010

AJacks' achilles

Let me be the second to call him AJax; that was accomplished on April 12th by a Royals-Tigers blogger. Let me be the first to remind you that being called Ajax has its problems. You may remember in Greek mythology Ajax was the warrior of greatest stature, but he was not the greatest Greek warrior. While he put up great numbers killing 28 Trojans at the battle of Troy, he didn't quite make it to the Trojan Horse, the official Greek Plan B after their powerful army had failed them.

Like his namesake, the Tigers' Austin Jackson (.369 AVG, 45 H, .421 OBP, 5 SB) is putting up incredible numbers in his rookie season, making him look like a steal in the Curtis Granderson (.225 AVG, .311 OBP) trade. Such in-credible numbers are, in fact, not credible.

Jackson leads the majors in at bats (122) and hits (45) and is tied for the American League lead in triples with three. He's getting on base frequently at the top of the Tigers order and has stolen five bags. This is all-time rookie-of-the-year type stuff, and, as I pointed out on my blog prior to the season, it's unlikely to last. At that time, I compared Jackson to more of a Carlos Gomez-type than an Andrew McCutchen-type.

AJax also leads the majors in BABIP and strikeouts, which is the molotov cocktail of a hitting fraud. As far as we know, the original Ajax never resorted to IEDs to get his fighting done. What's so concerning about the Tiger's rookie is just how high those numbers are. His BABIP of .523 is so absurdly high that second place David Freese trails him by 79 points. In recent seasons league average usually falls right around .300 for BABIP, placing Jackson 223 points above the norm.

Last season's league leaders in BABIP were: D. Wright (.394), Ichiro (.384), H. Ramirez (.379) and J. Mauer (.373)

That's great company for Jackson but rather lofty expectations considering he is a 23-year-old rookie. Bringing Jackson down to league average for BABIP returns a batting average of .211, and even if he hits like 2009 David Wright the rest of the year he's hitting no better than .278 from here on out.

Jackson's 35 strikeouts prove more alarming. He's whiffing 29 percent of the time, eight points above league average. Of the 2009 BABIP leaders, only David Wright can even approach that number. Jackson struck out 22 percent of the time in Triple-A last year and in Double-A two years ago when he produced averages of .300 and .285 respectively. These numbers, however, indicate he will slip back toward the mean in terms of his batting average, making that .278 mark anticipatory.

Fantasy Impact: All of this likely brings Jackson back to the pack as we move through May and into June. He's a good sell-high candidate who can produce at a respectable-enough level to maintain third or fourth outfielder status in most fantasy formats; he's obviously not as ho-hum as Carlos Gomez, but he's still no Andrew McCutchen. Hey, the original Ajax was no better than second fiddle himself.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Heyward hitting pretty

A lot has been made of Braves rookie right fielder Jason Heyward this spring. That hype will continue after Heyward homered in his first major league at bat on opening day and finished with a 2-5, 2 R, 4 RBI line in his first game. What was most impressive about Heyward, however, was his poise at bat. Only twice in five at bats did he swing at the first pitch he saw, and he typically worked counts to his favor before picking out a pitch to hit.

Before homering off of Carlos Zambrano in the first inning, Heyward remained patient, taking two balls before ripping a sinking fastball into the right field bullpen. In the third, Heyward worked a 1-1 count before slashing a line drive out to first off lefty Sean Marshall's curveball. After getting called out on strikes against lefty James Russell in the fifth, Heyward became more aggressive in his final two at bats. He swung at the first pitch in each of his final at bats - eventually putting the ball in play both times, the second with a base hit in the ninth inning.

Fantasy Impact: Heyward is handling the attention well to this point. He's proving he can be an elite performer as well. With outstanding balance and a solid approach at the plate, Heyward is living up to the hype and continues to play exceptionally well as a 20-year-old. Heyward walked 51 times in 362 at bats at Triple-A last season, and his walk total equaled his strikeout mark. We'll have to wait and see if he can remain selective over 162 games at the MLB level, but there's no reason to doubt his talent at this point. Heyward appears to be the Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria breakout-type rookie of 2010.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Porcello finally wins

Tigers rookie starter Rick Porcello wins his 10th game of the season, working 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a 7-3 victory against the Orioles. While it was just Porcello's second win since June 18th, the sinker-baller is still a fixture in Detroit's rotation. He's capable of a handful of more wins by season's end, giving the youngest player in the Majors a shot at 15 wins in his opening campaign.

Fantasy Impact: Porcello's ERA swelled almost a full point from the end of June through August 1st, but this outing was a half-step in the right direction. The 20-year-old is holding his own as a Major Leaguer, and he's proven very impressive over the course of 18 MLB starts. When the matchups are right, Porcello is a nice back-of-the-rotation option for any fantasy team.