Games of the Day - 6/6/11

Update - 6/7/11 @ 12:20 PM: Not a prediction. All four matchups lived up to their billing, and John Danks got his first win. He's a great waiver wire add. Tomlin's recent struggles should be very worrying if he's anything but a low-end option on your fantasy team.

Top pitching matchups tonight (6/6/11):

7:05 pm EST
Dodgers - Lilly (4-4, 4.22)
@ Phillies - Lee (4-5, 3.94)
***Both lefties have struggled to live up to expectations in 2011. Lee recently lost badly to weak-hitting Washington and Jon Lannan. We'll see if his offense can help against a tougher veteran lefty in Lilly.

7:05 pm EST
Athletics - Gonzalez (5-3, 2.49)
Orioles - Matusz (0-0, 1.59)
***Gotta like a matchup of two promising young lefties. Matusz won his first outing on June 1st after a lengthy DL stint. Gonzalez is looking to prove he can maintain consistency as a an above-average fantasy starter.

7:05 pm EST
Twins - Baker (4-2, 3.86)
@ Indians - Tomlin (7-2, 3.27)
***The focus is on Tomlin. He gave up 7 earned runs last week but still beat the Blue Jays. A light-hitting Twins order without Joe Mauer and potentially without table-setter Denard Span would look to get Tomlin back on track. If not, his fantasy status takes a major hit.

8:10 pm EST
Mariners - Pineda (6-2, 2.60)
@ White Sox - Danks (0-8, 5.25)
***Pineda is rolling. Danks looks like he might roll right out of the Sox rotation. Then again, against one of the worst offenses in baseball, this could be his chance to turn things around. The Sox own some slumbering big bats in a small ballpark. Let's see if Pineda can overpower them.

The left-handed Maddux?

There's something special about White Sox starter John Danks. Danks threw six innings of two-hit baseball in Tampa Thursday night, striking out eight while giving up a single run. He earned his first win of 2009, a 3-2 nail-biter over the Rays.

At the age of 24, Danks is growing into a legitimate MLB pitcher. He won't wow anyone with his stuff, which is more than adequate but still not overwhelming. His numbers, however, jump off the page in Greg Maddux-like fashion. Take a look at the pitchers' first two seasons in the majors. The comparison is eerie.

2007 JD -- 6-13 ERA: 5.50 IP: 139.0 H: 160 HR: 28 BB: 54 K: 109 WHIP: 1.540
1987 GM -- 6-14 ERA: 5.61 IP: 155.2 H: 181 HR: 17 BB: 74 K: 101 WHIP: 1.638

2008 JD -- 12-9 ERA: 3.32 IP: 195.0 H: 182 HR: 15 BB: 57 K: 159 WHIP: 1.226
1988 GM -- 18-8 ERA: 3.18 IP: 249.0 H: 230 HR: 13 BB: 81 K: 140 WHIP: 1.249

Their rookie seasons are near-mirror images of each other. Danks gave up more home runs while Maddux kept the ball in the yard but gave up more base runners. Year two shows some separation in the numbers as Maddux began his winning ways and threw more innings, but it's not that far off. Danks limited base runners in Maddux-like fashion, and he continued to use his above-average pitches to strike out more batters.

It's hard to draw the conclusion that Danks will continue his meteoric rise as one of the top young arms in baseball based on this comparison to Maddux. The Hall of Famer eventually produced off-the-charts stats, like 20 BB and a 0.946 WHIP in 1997. He did win 355 games for a reason: he averaged 16 wins over his 23 seasons.

Danks is behind a year age-wise, and he's eight wins behind Maddux through two full seasons in the big leagues. He's got the numbers to expect great things ahead, and while a Greg Maddux comparison is not fair to almost any pitcher, the first two years are comparable for John Danks. Maddux entered the big leagues as a young 20-year-old with considerable upside, but his first season in Chicago left some with tempered expectations. Danks is the same type of high-end prospect who met with limited success when he first cracked the surface. Since then, he's been brilliant.