You dropped Jered Weaver!? Oh, OK

Startled by the perceived ingnorance of one owner in my fantasy baseball league for dropping Jered Weaver, I nearly made the mistake of my fantasy season: picking up Jered Weaver from the waiver wire and placing him on my team. Yikes! After checking out the numbers, Ignorant Owner, you're no longer ignorant. You're taking a calculated risk, and I think you might be on to something. To analyze, first we must understand Jered Weaver is not Jeff Weaver. Then we must compare the two to scare ourselves to the point of making a rational decision and not an emotional one. Again, Jered is not Jeff, not yet, anyway. It does, however, look like he might be well on his way to following in older brother's footsteps if this kind of thing keeps up.

Jeff Weaver is a tough player to statistically analyze due to his wild swings from effective to ineffective starter. His first few years on the Tigers proved to be productive if not remarkable. After imploding with the Yankees, he found it (whatever it is) again in Los Angeles. After going from the Dodgers to the Angles, however, he lost it again. Save for a brief stretch-run including a World Series shocker with the Cardinals he hasn't been a good fantasy option since, especially now that he's stuck in the minors.

Jered Weaver's recent success as a young pitcher trumps his brother's early track record. Over his first two seasons with the Angels, Jered dominated the American League with ERAs of 2.56 and 3.91. What's most impressive are his 24 victories in less than two actual full seasons of baseball. He won more than half of his starts and 73 percent of his decisions.

Unfortunaley for Jered, 2008 is a much different story. He's 2-5 with a Jeff-like 5.59 ERA. His home runs allowed are up, averaging about one per outing, and for the first time in his career Jered's given up more hits than innings pitched. While his walk rate 2.7/9 (2008) vs. 2.5/9 (career) has undergone a minuscule increase, his strikeout rate 6.0/9 (2008) vs. 6.8/9 (career) is in more discernible decline, and actually improved over his three recent shellings. Jered's biggest issue might be leaving the ball up. He used to induced twice as many groundballs as fly balls. This year the ratio is practially one to one.

Spitting Seeds recommendation: Jered Weaver is still the only Weaver brother worth owning in fantasy ball. While he's been a huge disappointment, he still carries value as a No. 4 starter at this time and is more likely to bounce back than not (he carried a 5.15 ERA into the 2nd week of May last year and finished at 3.91). Next week he's got two starts lined up, including one against the red-hot John Danks and the White Sox. Hang on to Weaver for now, although if you're a dice-roller, there might be something better out there. If he's on the waiver wire, you might be better off waiting for him to clear and become a free agent. Clayton Kershaw is certainly more worth of a waiver claim at this time.