Ludwick is a big lug

It's time to take a flier on the the Cardinals' Ryan Ludwick. The Minor League journeyman connected twice against the Rockies on Thursday, sending out his sixth and seventh Major League home runs in just 91 ABs. That puts him on pace for around 35 this season. At this point he's platooning in the Cardinals' four-man outfield rotation, but because his bat's been the biggest of the group, he could start getting even more ABs, which could lead to even more home runs. He has now hit safely in his last eight games, including three home runs in his last two. Ludwick has more home runs than Albert Pujols at this point of the season. He's tied with Pujols in runs scored, and he's just three RBI behind the Cardinals' slugger in 32 less ABs.

Can we expect upwards of 35 to 40 bombs from Mr. Ludwick this season? Tough call. The safest bet is no. Over parts of eight Major League seasons Ludwick has totaled enough ABs for a just over a full season as a starter. In that time he has a pedestrian .265 avg. and a solid .485 slugging percentage, making his isolated power .200. While the power numbers are above average by MLB standards, they are below the mark of a true power hitter. Ludwick also strikes out 27 percent of the time he comes to bat while walking just 65 times in 773 plate appearances. Both numbers are unspectacular considering he's more of a power hitter than a contact guy. So few walks indicate pitchers are willing to challenge Ludwick rather than pitch around him. They're not afraid.

That fact that Ludwick is lugging what are truly All-Star type numbers over the first six weeks of the season is probably a statistical aberration. Over time numbers tend to come back to reality, and there's no doubt the .363 and .758 slugging percentage will come down quite a bit. He's never even approached those kind of numbers at any level, and as he earns more at bats over a full major league season, the Ludwick we've seen in the past is more likely to emerge than the one currently doing so much damage to MLB pitching. With 26 Ks in 91 ABs, Ludwick is striking out more often than ever before, meaning the balls he's put in play are miraculously finding the turf of the seats at a rate that cannot continue. The more he plays, the more fielders get a glove on the balls he hits. With history as our guide, the strikeout rate won't change much. Ryan Ludwick's attractiveness will.

Spitting Seeds' suggestion: Take him while he's hot, so your opponents can't use him against you. This might last another month or so but certainly not for a full season.