Friday, May 30, 2008

Penthouse Price

Forget all the talk about who's the next Pedro Martinez. How about Pedro himself telling us how good David Price looks. We knew he was good from his stellar Vanderbilt career, but with what he's done in his short minor league stint after joining the Rays in A-ball is remarkable.

Pedro says Price is "amazing, that kid. He's amazing. That kid is very mature for his time in [the pros], and very talented."

"Oh my God. God bless him and keep him healthy."

With love from arguably the top pitcher of this era, Price is certainly headed for the highest level of baseball - maybe as early as this year.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

(Chase)ing dollars

Credit Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune for a great piece on Padres prospect Chase Headley. Sullivan's position is that the Padres are penny-pinching and that's the only reason Headley hasn't climbed to the big leagues yet.

To paraphrase, players become eligible for salary arbitration after three years of major league service, but some are lucky enough to reach that milestone after just two-plus seasons based on a yearly fluctuation in the cutoff. Sullivan writes:
The specific requirements fluctuate from year to year, but “Super Twos” represent the top 17 percent of those players with more than two years of service time and less than three, with the proviso that they log at least 86 days on the roster the previous season.

Last year's cutoff was two years, 140 days. Howard qualified with two years, 145 days. Yet the historic range is sufficiently broad – since 1990, it has fallen variously from two years plus 128 days to two years plus 153 days – that roster decisions become exceedingly delicate this time of year.
There are 122 days left in the 2008 baseball season, meaning the Padres are entering a safe-zone in terms of calling Headley up and still limiting his service time, thereby pushing back his arbitration eligibility until 2012. At the latest he should be on the Major League roster within the first couple of weeks in July, which is good news for the Padres as they can use some help offensively. It's bad news for Headley, however, as his big paychecks will by that time be another year away.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Three little bears

Three Cubs lead their respective positions in All-Star voting. Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome hold down two outfield positions at this time while catcher Geovany Soto is attempting to become the first rookie catcher to be voted to the game.

Soriano and Fukudome certainly had the bigger names and commanded more attention than Soto entering the season, but a this point Soto appears to be the most deserving of the honor. At least a dozen other outfielders are as (or more) All-Star worthy as the Cubs' vote leaders. Soto's only competitions is Brian McCann.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Bourn ultimatum

With steals in each of his last two games, the Astros' Michael Bourn tied Ichiro for the Major League lead (21). Sixteen players now have 10 or more steals this season with Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury and Colorado's Willy Taveres tied for third with 19 steals apiece.

Bourn is, on pace to steal almost 70 bases this year, remains the ultimate steals threat in MLB. Only five players have reached 70 steals since 1993:

Jose Reyes (NYM) - 78 in 2007
Scott Podsednik (CWS) - 70 in 2004
Tony Womack (ARI) - 72 in 1999
Brian Hunter (DET) - 74 in 1997
Kenny Lofton (CLE) - 75 in 1996
Kenny Lofton (CLE) - 70 in 1993

Hit and miss

Philadelphia's Ryan Howard went 3-5 Thursday night with his 13th home run. He's on pace to hi 43 this season. Howard also struck out twice. With 71 Ks in 179 AB he's on pace to whiff 235 times.

Howard strikes out or homers in 47 percent of his at bats.

One harry Haren

In what is becoming a theme this season, Arizona's Dan Haren continues to suffer one rocky inning, derailing a great start with a single sub-par frame. Thursday at Florida he gave up three earned runs in the 7th inning, turning a great statline into mediocrity. His numbers with and without the 7th inning:

Plus 7th: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 8 K
Minus 7th: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8 K

Florida's Andrew Miller allowed no runs in 6 innings to pick up the win as Haren falls to 5-3.

Friday's intriguing matchups

OAK: Zito (0-8, 6.25) vs.
FLA: Olsen (4-1, 2.82)
*Zito's been respectable the last three times out. Olsen's walk numbers point to an inevitable collapse.

ARI: Davis (1-1, 3.72) vs.
ATL Reyes (2-1, 4.12)
*Davis makes his first start back from thyroid cancer. Reyes is still looking for his first quality start.

NYM: Perez (4-3, 4.25) vs.
COL: Reynolds (0-1, 3.09)
*Perez dominated the Yankees last time out. Reynolds is a first-round pick cutting his teeth in the Bigs.

LAA: Saunders (7-2, 2.48) vs.
CWS: Floyd (4-2, 2.92)
*Two of this season's biggest surprises go head-to-head.

KC: Greinke (5-1, 2.18) vs.
TOR: Halladay (4-5, 3.38)
*Greinke has yet to give up more than three runs in an outing. Halladay last pitched in relief.

MIN: Slowey (0-4, 5.49) vs.
DET: Galarraga (3-1, 3.06)
*Slowey, who's lost all of his starts this season, beat Detroit the only time he faced them last season. Galarraga is trying to keep a starting job.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Sunday silence

Sunday offers a bunch of average to below-average pitching match ups, but there's one that stands out:

CLE: Lee (6-0, 0.67) vs.
CIN: Volquez (6-1, 1.12)

These two standouts seem to have everything going their way. Volquez owns the better stuff, but Lee's the best pitcher in baseball right now. It's too bad this isn't the Sunday night primetime game, which pits this so-so match up:

NYM: Perez (3-3, 4.61)
NYY: Wang (6-1, 2.90)

Wang is the heavy favorite in that one, and last year he dominated the Mets (1-0, 2.18 ERA).

Not very Sori

Alfonso Soriano is heating up like the weather in Chicago. He's hit seven home runs this week and four in his last two games. His batting average was at .188 entering last weekend's series with Arizona. Now he's hitting .265.

Fantasy Impact: Ride the wave, but proceed with caution. Soriano's battled a number of leg injuries in the last couple of seasons, and he doesn't look too good running the bases or chasing fly balls in left. He's healthy enough to hit, but how healthy is he?

Livan on the edge

Livan Hernandez continues to defy the odds that say he's about to slip back to mediocrity. The 33-year-old right hander pitched well enough to win his seventh game (perfect through five innings) on Saturday night, but lost his second, instead.

Hernandez's line for the night:
7.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Hernandez's numbers over the past few seasons show a steady decline in production since arguably his career best season in 2003 with Montreal: 15-10, 3.20 ERA. That he's pitching more like he did that year (when he was 28) than he is like his most recent seasons is a huge surprise. Hernandez' ERA is now at 3.88, and his record is 6-2. A closer look at his numbers, however, reveals cracks in the foundation. In 65 innings he's allowed 80 hits. He's giving up a home run per start, and while his walk numbers are improved, they're approaching a career low while his hits allowed are approaching a career high. It would seem only a matter of time before the walk rate balloons back to normal, pushing up the ERA while restoring his record closer to .500 (his career norm).

Fantasy Impact: Hernandez has started strong in his return to the American League. Don't expect it to last. Most of his success has come against light-hitting teams, and his second tour through the A.L. should prove a bit more difficult. Treat him like any pitcher switching leagues; expect less success as the year goes on.

Gonzo for road games

Padres 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez was hitless in his last 15 at bats before launching his 10th home run of the season in the fourth inning off of Seattle's Erik Bedard on Saturday. Gonzalez went 1-4 on the night after rocketing a line out to right in the ninth against Mariner closer J.J. Putz.

Fantasy Impact: Gonzalez rarely slumps, and he hits a majority of his home runs on the road. Eight of his 10 bombs this year are away from spacious Petco Park. Last year he hit 20 of his 30 round trippers on the road. Imagine what he could do with a different organization.

Will the real Shaun Marcum...

...please stand, or sit? All season long, Shaun Marcum's seemingly pitched over his head. Or not. If you take a look at his minor league stats, Marcum's displayed the kind of pedigree built for success at the major league level: striking out a batter per inning. Sunday at Philadelphia is a huge test for the 2nd-year right hander. Pitch well against arguably the best lineup in baseball, and Marcum's first-quarter success looks legitimate. Struggle, and well, the "he's not overpowering enough to be successful" naysayers will say "nay."

Fantasy Impact: Keep a close eye on this one. Pitching in a bandbox ballpark against that lineup forces Marcum to locate his decent stuff as well as he ever has. If he does, watch out! He's becoming a fantasy steal. If he doesn't, nobody expected this anyway.

CP works the... 7th?

Chris Perez, the Cardinals call-up who replaced an injured Jason Isringhausen, hit 100 mph on the radar gun in his MLB debut. While he appears an obvious candidate for the closer role, St. Louis used him in the 7th inning of Saturday's 9-8 extra-inning win over Tampa Bay.

Fantasy Impact: Ryan Franklin remains the Cardinals' closer while Isringhausen is on the shelf. Russ Springer is expected to pick up a save or two as well. If those two falter before Isringhausen returns, Perez might get a look. Then again, Perez is talented enough that he might get a look even before Isringhausen returns. You have to figure Tony La Russa will exhaust each an every opportunity to win games.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Tribe starting rotation "pitching in"

If you're looking for the best starting rotation in the majors right now, you'd be crazy to look anywhere else but Cleveland. The numbers speak for themselves. Sliding Shorts breaks down the unbelievable numbers here.

Cueto pinch-runs, scores winning run

If you count pitchers' offensive stats in your fantasy league, then you need to seek professional medical help...but if that describes your fantasy league, then you received an unexpected boost from Johnny Cueto on Wednesday night. Sliding Shorts has the story.

Darn it, Doumit

Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit hit the DL today, sidelined indefinitely. He's been tearing it up offensively, stepping out of a platoon with Ronny Paulino as Pittsburgh's primary backstop. Thumb fractures have varying degrees of seriouness, and the fact that this one deals with the tip of the thumb and not the joint is good news for Doumit.

Fantasy Impact: Paulino's going to get a bunch of at bats while Doumit's out. Don't underestimate a hand or wrist injury to a hitter, especially when that player is a catcher who handles 130-150 pitches every night. These things can last a while.

Jonesin' in the minors?

Dodgers outfielder Andruw Jones lost his job recently and may head to the minors. That's Joe Torre's idea for getting the slumping slugger out of his, um, slump.

Fantasy Impact: And you thought Juan Pierre's days were numbered? Looks like he's a full-time starter again.

To pitch and not to pich

Eric Gagne is back at closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. It only took one day for the Brew Crew brass to realize he's their only true option at the position. This from a staff that had a meeting to decide to do nothing about anything earlier in the week. Good work, guys.

As it turns out, Clay Buchholz will not pitch Sunday. Instead, he's headed for the DL.

Fantasy Impact: The Brewers go back to Gagne, as exepected. Buchholz' replacement, Justin Masterson did well his first time out. Give him a look.

Figueroa doesn't like girls, Nats or his outright release

Nelson Figueroa had had enough, so he tongue-lashed the Washington Nationals for their anticts during his latest start. Figueroa compared the Nats' dugout behavior to that of a girls softball team.

"They won tonight," Figueroa said after dropping the 10-4 decision, "but again, in the long run, they are who they are." Sounds like a page out of Dennis Green's postgame press-conference handbook.

Figueroa won't have to worry about witnessing Washington's ways anymore. The Mets released him before Tuesday's game, bringing up Claudio Vargas to take his spot on the roster.

Fantasy Impact: Figueroa wasn't a big fantasy player and Vargas has never been much of one over his career. Figueroa needs to check himself for his own pitching debacle before he rails on the opponent's bench.

Boston's no tea party

Keep a close eye on Boston's outfield today. J.D. Drew sprained his left wrist, and Coco Crisp left with an apparent migraine during Tuesday's 5-4 loss to the Orioles.

It could leave Boston juggling the lineup for at least the next few days.

The Bo Sox also named a starter for Sunday's home game against Milwaukee. Clay Buchholz, who's really been struggling of late, gets the nod. That gives Buchholz two starts this week. The second one is a chance to make up for his horrendous outing in Minnesota.

Fantasy Impact: Drew seems to miss a chunk of every season, and the fact that he couldn't turn his wrist after the injury could be significant. If Crisp recovers quickly the Red Sox will start both him and Jacoby Ellsbury as one of the speediest duos in the major leagues. Kevin Youkilis played emergency right fielder on Tuesday.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Pitching recap - Tuesday night games

A follow-up on the night's best pitching matchups:

FLA 3 F
CIN 5
L: Hendrickson (5-2, 3.91) W: Volquez (6-1, 1.12)
...Eddie V gave up 1 run in the win, and his ERA rises .06!

NYY 1 F
TB 2 (11)
No dec.: Wang (6-1, 2.90) No dec.: TB: Jackson (2-3, 3.47)
...Both went 7, only run earned was Wang's. Both deserved to win, but neither got run support.

WSH 3 F
NYM 6
L: Lannan (3-4, 3.74) W: Maine (5-2, 2.81)
...Maine looked dominant & notches his 5th win. Lannan gave up 12 H, 4 ER in 6 IP.

SEA 2 F
TEX 5
L: Hernandez (2-4, 3.38) No dec.: Gabbard (1-0, 2.12)
...Both reached the 6th, both give up 2 earned.

CWS 0 F
LAA 2
No dec.: Danks (3-3, 2.74) No dec.: Weaver (2-5, 4.86)
...Danks reached the 7th, Weaver completed the 7th. Neither gave up a run.

Notables:

-Randy Johnson notched career win No. 287 as the D'backs beat Colorado, 8-4.

No, I'm 'Little Pedro'

Welcome late, ESPN, to the "name a Reds pitcher 'Little Pedro' party." Maybe you reserved this story until now for the fact that sometimes it's better to be the last one dishing out a nickname than it is to be the early bird eating the wrong worm. Johnny Cueto is that worm. He started off hot in spring training and then again in his first start against Arizona, but as the worm turns so did Cueto, and now he's stuggling to keep runs off the board (2-4, 5.91).

Edinson Volquez inherits Cueto's status as "The Next Pedro Martinez," according to ESPN. Coming off a less-than-impressive 2007 with the Texas Rangers, Volquez was dealt to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton. Considered a top prospect who now carried baggage, some wondered whether Volquez would be able to turn things around at the Major League Level. Cueto's record was flawless because he'd never pitched a game in the big leagues before. That, coupled with Cueto's dominant spring left many to believe he was suddenly the better pitcher, let alone prospect. Things have changed. Now, through one-quarter of the year, Volquez inherits the monicker "staff ace." He enters tonight's game with Washington as the far better Reds pitching phenom, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.06 ERA. Volquez is striking out well over a batter an inning and has served up just one home run while Cueto's coughed up nine.

ESPN, which typically jumps the gun with its "Next" campaign, actually waited on this one. Now they're taking Cueto's nickname and pasting it on Volquez. While everyone else was diving in to relate one diminutive Dominican to his idol, ESPN waited back and delivered a change-up for a clean single through the box. Johnny C is no Eddie V. Not right now, anyway.

Tuesday's top tossers

Today's most intriguing pitching matchups:

FLA: Hendrickson (5-1, 3.86)
vs. CIN: Volquez (5-1, 1.06)
*Journeyman vs. phemon is this battle for win number six.

NYY: Wang (6-1, 3.12)
vs. TB: Jackson (2-3, 4.04)
*The top pitcher in the AL against the hot & cold former prospect.

WSH: Lannan (3-3, 3.40)
vs. NYM: Maine (4-2, 3.00)
*Is Lannan for real? Maine certainly seems to be.

SEA: Hernandez (2-3, 3.42)
vs. TEX: Gabbard (1-0, 1.85)
*Gabbard hasn't allowed a run in his last two (short) starts

CWS: Danks (3-3, 3.18)
vs. LAA: Weaver (2-5, 5.59)
*Weaver tries to right the ship like last year. Danks staying alfoat.

Morgan En(d)sberg?

What happened to Morgan Ensberg? The former Houston Astros 3rd baseman got off to a solid major league start in 2003 (.291 avg., 25 HR in 385 AB), and followed that up with a dynamic '05 (.283 avg., 36 HR, 101 RBI). Since then the California native's been in serious decline, including mustering just a .224 average with his hometown San Diego Padres at the end of last season.

Now that he's with the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez is out, Ensberg has been getting the lion's share at third base. After hitting just .222 through 19 games, however, the Yankees made an unlikely move on Monday night. Alberto Gonzalez, who is at most a middle-infield utilityman, got the start at 3rd instead.

Fantasy Impact: Ensberg's diminished value continues to erode. He's the kind of sleeper that's gifted enough for comeback player of the year potential, but not if he's losing at bats to a middle infielder.

Peace, Pie

It sounds like the Cubs' signing of recently released Jim Edmonds is imminent. Various media are reporting that the former Padre will be a Cub as soon as he clears waivers on Wednesday.

With Felix Pie getting optioned back to Triple-A you have to wonder if his time at Wrigley Field is over. The Cubs are in a playoff race, and with the addition of Edmonds they have five outfielders. Trade rumors of Pie leaving the organization for pitching will begin to swirl.

Kershaw pounded, may still get call

Clayton Kershaw seems to take a loss every time he climbs a Double-A mound. On Monday it was actually his fault. Typically plagued by poor run support, the 20-year-old Dodger farmhand struggled for the first time all year in the worst outing of his season to date, but it was the fact that Kershaw is back in the Double-A rotation that is most telling about his immediate future.

The Dodgers are rumored to consider starting Kershaw this coming Saturday. Kershaw had been dropped out of the Double-A rotation recently in order to limit his innings and keep the lefty flamethrower fresh for a potential late-season call-up. The fact that Kershaw was suddenly working Monday night, exactly five days before the Dodgers might need him at the major league level, suggests that Kershaw's first start in the big leagues may be imminent.

Then again, Dodgers manager Joe Torre said they might use him both out of the bullpen and then again in the rotation in Double-A to keep Kershaw fresh yet prepared for a later call-up. This is high drama.

Money bawl

That flushing sound is the 2008 Detroit Tigers season going down the toilet. Or is it that Flushing sound, as in Flushing, NY, the home of Shea Stadium and the many airplanes that whir overhead? It could be both. In last place in the American League Central heading into Tuesday play, the high-priced Tigers seem to have something in common with the 1992 Mets: they were retooled to win, but they're going down the drain.

After a 77-84 campaign in 1991 and tiring of a lineup made up of Rick Cerone, Kevin Elster, Vince Coleman and Hubie Brooks, the Mets bought what they though could win them the National League East. Enter six new starting position players in 1992: Todd Hundley, Willie Randolph, Dick Schofield, Eddie Murray, Darryl Boston and Bobby Bonilla. The Mets also brought in Bret Saberhagen to solidify the starting rotation. Many considered New York as talented as any team in baseball until they promptly imploded, losing 90 games to wind up back in 5th place just like the year before.

The Tigers made similar changes to their roster for 2008. Slugging 3rd baseman Miguel Cabrera was to become the anchor of the left side of the infield along with newly-acquired shortstop Edgar Renteria. Jacque Jones, brought in to stop what had been a revolving door of misfits in left, would be counted on as a steady offensive contributor. Dontrelle Willis, pried away from Florida in the Cabrera deal, was expected to regain his unorthodox form as one of the top lefties in baseball. It hasn't happened.

Cabrera's hitting .252, almost 60 points below his career average. Renteria's on base percentage is a paltry .295. Jones hit .152 and was cut. Willis is struggling to get healthy, having thrown just five innings this season. It's not just the newcomers' fault. Plenty of old hands like Gary Sheffield (.208 avg.) and Nate Robertson (1-4, 6.64 ERA) share the blame. But if the terrible Tigers are to continue down this miserable path, it is the big names they brought in who will feel the hottest white rays of a fading spotlight. Detroit is in the American League Central toilet, caught in a downward spiral while clunkers like Kansas City and Minnesota remain buoyantly optimistic for the long summer ahead.

Statistically speaking, the Tigers are more than likely to turn this around, but if it is history that serves as our guide then even the talented 1993 Mets -- the all-too-similar remnants of that '92 purchase party -- will tell you it doesn't always work out. Another year removed from trying to buy a championship New York took another step in the wrong direction, slumping to 103 losses and a last-place NL East finish, even with the addition of a talented, young Jeff Kent to the lineup. Thanks to those low flyovers in Flushing Meadows some of the booing din of Mets fans' was washed out below. Here's hoping there's an airport near Comerica.

Amazing & Ordinary

Cleveland 2nd baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned an unassisted triple play against Toronto Monday night. Take a look.

Pretty good, considering it's only the 14th unassisted triple play in MLB history. That's rare company to be in, but then again as a hitter Cabrera made four outs for the Blue Jays, going 0-4 with a strikeout as Toronto won the game, 3-0. Cabrera is batting just .190 for the season. There are plenty of 2nd baseman that can do that.

Adenhart hearts W

W is for win, and therefore Nick Adenhart is for W's. The Angels rookie picked up the first of his career Monday night at the "Big A," which is a nickname for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim's stadium, not Adenhart. Maybe they should call him "Big A," too. Not because of his long, lanky stature, but because of his ability to give up the big inning. Adenhart didn't win this one because he pitched well. He won because his team hit Mark Buerhle and the White Sox all over the yard.

Adenhart's statline on Monday night:

5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, (9.00 ERA in 3 starts)

It looks like a losing pitcher's numbers, and yet somehow Adenhart gets the win. It wasn't his fault that he gets credited with a victory. Blame Vlad Guerrero for launching a 3-run moon shot in the 5th off Buehrle that made Adenhart the pitcher of record for one more inning. He couldn't get through the sixth, yielding to his bullpen after just 57 of his 98 pitches were thrown for strikes. This was an icky win.

Fantasy Impact: Much has been made of Adenhart's age. He's just 21 and now owns a career record of 1-0, but that's the nice part of the story. While he dominated in the minors this year to the tune of a .170 avg. against and 4-0 record, he walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. Adenhart's strikeout total of 19 in 31 minor league innings suggests he's not yet ready to dominate at that level let alone the big leagues. He's got time and room to grow, but with John Lackey getting set to come off the DL Adenhart's time at the major league level might be short for this year.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Carmona then Lee - Cleveland only manages DH split

Fausto Carmona improved on his average of seven walks per nine innings giving up just 4 free passes in game one of a double header with Toronto. Carmona went the complete game, striking out three and limiting the Blue Jays to five hits in a 3-0 shutout.

Cliff Lee turned the trick in game two, limiting the Jays to seven hits in nine innings while striking out five. He didn't allow a run, but neither did Shaun Marcum over eight innings of work. Toronto eventually got the win in the 10th, scoring three off of Rafael Betancourt.

The three starters combined for 26 innings and no runs. Both Lee and Marcum would appear to be pitching way over their heads these days, but Carmona is defying statistical probability. He now has allowed 35 walks in 48.2 innings while his ERA falls from 2.95 to 2.40.

Hanley still handles short

Hanley Ramirez might be error prone (he made 50 errors over his first two full MLB seasons for a .963 fielding clip), but he's not moving away from the toughest position to play in the infield. With seven errors already in 2008, Ramirez is on pace to tally 31 by season's end, a figure that would likely lead the National League. His fielding percentage is down to .960, but he's not going to move positions according to the Florida Marlins MLB.com beat writer.

Players often make moves later in their careers. For instance, Nomar Garciaparra slid from shortstop to 3rd base while Jim Thome moved from 1st base to DH, but those moves didn't happen until injuries kept them off the field for precautionary reasons. Ramirez is far too young for the Marlins to give up on him as a shortstop. He turns 25 just two days before Christmas and has the athletic ability to eventually iron things out. Even if he doesn't, Florida is hard-pressed to find another player for the position who can be even half as productive as Ramirez is offensively. Including this season's statistics, he's hitting .314 for his career with 115 SB and 277 R. Ramirez is on pace to blast over 30 HR for the first time in his relatively short time in the majors. Keeping Ramirez at short gives the Marlins an advantage the rest of major league baseball doesn't have, a slugging shortstop with burner speed. It's a rare combination of that is worth a few extra errors in the field.

Fantasy Impact: Virtually none. The Marlins are not moving Ramirez and apparently they're not even talking about it despite all the errors. Ramirez is the top shortstop in baseball production wise, and might be the best all-around offensive player in fantasy play right now.

Jim Edmonds is old; Cubs interested

So, the Cubs are sniffing at Jim Edmonds these days. The guy who always came up roses in center field now has a fragrance that can be described as "oderiferous" in recent seasons. Edmonds is very apparently in the twilight of his career, but credit Chicago for exploring every option to shore up their pathetic platoon in center of Reed Johnson and Felix Pie.

That combo's combined stat line vs. Edmonds this year:

Johnson/Pie: .243 avg./2 HR/20 RBI in 173 AB
Edmonds: .178 avg./1 HR/6 RBI in 90 AB

Certainly the Cubs see something in the 37-year-old who smoked them for a quarter of his 12 home runs with the Cardinals in 2007. For eight long years he tracked down their gap-shots and took home runs away at Busch. Edmonds, however, is just a shell of his former self. His numbers have been in steady decline for three-plus seasons now. His HR totals for the four seasons prior to 2008: 42/29/19/12. The Padres, who need outfield help, released him due to his poor performance both at the plate and in the field. He once dominated defensively, and to add insult to injury, the Padres called-up former Cubs scrub Jody Gerut to take his place.

If the Cubs sign Edmonds it's only because they have little or no faith in Johnson and Pie. Remember, Johnson's always had a light bat, and he was released by the Toronto Blue Jays in spring training. Johnson couldn't make a roster with the likes of Shannon Stewart and another former Cub, Matt Stairs holding down left field.

Fantasy impact: If Edmonds is signed he likely platoons with either Johnson or Pie, not both. The Cubs just don't have room on the roster for that many outfielders. Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome aren't going anywhere, and Daryle Ward is a good left-handed bat off the bench who can also spell Derrek Lee at first. If Edmonds comes to Chicago, expect Pie, who hasn't hit a bit, to be moved back to Triple-A. Edmonds, who bats left-handed and Johnson (right-handed) would likely form a platoon in center, splitting up at bats and diminishing fantasy value. There wasn't much value there in the first place. Dear Cubs, sniff elsewhere. P.S. Fantasy owners should, too.

Gagne: "I come out there and kill that rally"

Everything sounds rough and messy in French. "Rally-killer" sounds ugly in any language. That's what French-Canadian closer Eric Gagne called himself recently, as he's been killing Brewers' rallies all season and aiding inside-out hat time for opponents. On Sunday Gagne got his much needed "mental break" (see Jason Isringhausen) from the Milwaukee closer role. How Milwaukee fills that role in the interim now becomes one of the great mysteries in baseball (along with Nate McLouth's breakout from oblivion and Ryan Howard's inability to hit anything).

The Brewers now turn to a stable of mediocrity. If you want horses out of the 'pen, they've got donkeys (asses). If you want a stopper, these guys are starters. Actually, they're not starters, they're far worse than that, and that's why they're career middle relievers. Oh, but not in Milwaukee. Here they're closers, maybe. Brian Shouse, David Riske, Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres will star in "Closer by Committee," a movie you shouldn't see and a fantasy option you should avoid. Shouse is 39 and picked up just his fifth Major League save on Sunday. Riske, like his name, is a risky option at best having struggled when called upon to close games in the past. He's with his fifth team in five years. Mota is nearly 35 and has never held a closer role. Torres lost his only shot at it in Pittsburgh, of all places, and then nearly retired in the offseason.

Fantasy Impact: Didn't we just say you should avoid these people? Yeah, these stiffs might get you a save or two, but Gagne's the only one in the bunch that's got the makeup for the role and he's downright scary (must be out of concealer) in recent years. Milwaukee cannot conceal the fact that the back end of their bullpen has been exposed for the fraud that it is. If you must absolutely grab someone off the waiver wire, it's Riske. He signed an incentive-laden deal with Milwaukee just days before Gagne inked his. Riske got the first look in early April when Gagne's struggles got started. Honestly, though, don't do this. Once it all plays out you'll be saying 'merci!' to Spitting Seeds for saying 'non' to this putrid 'pen.

Chris Perez - this close to closer

Chris Perez is big, nasty and in Triple-A. While the Cardinals split closer time between Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer in order to give Jason Isringhausen a "mental break," Perez continues to dominate that very role with the Memphis Redbirds. Perez would appear to be the prototype closer the Cardinals haven't had since 2002-'05 Isringhausen and before that Tom Henke in 1995 (no we didn't forget Dave Veres and Dennis Eckersley, they just weren't as good as Izzy or Henke... alright, actually, we did forget about Veres and Eckersley because we weren't Cardinal fans and they didn't provide memorable seasons like Izzy or Henke).

If Franklin and Springer fail to close games this week (Franklin looked solid the first time around), keep a close eye on what the Cardinals decide to do. St. Louis manager Tony La Russa might be forced to say Isringhausen's break is over and give the job back to the guy everyone figures will be re-inheriting the job. If Izzy falters again, however, Perez would become a very intriguing candidate who is already getting tabbed as "the man" in certain circles. Provided he continues to dominate in the minors, Perez's installation as the anchor of the Cardinals' bullpen may be just two to three weeks away.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Two-start pitchers (5/12-5/19)

Because of Sunday's rain in Chicago, the Cubs pushed ace Carlos Zambrano's scheduled start back a day. That means Zambrano becomes a two-start pitcher for this upcoming fantasy week. Sliding Shorts has a couple more two-start pitchers that could make or break your fantasy week.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Howard vs. Lincecum

Ryan Howard, the major league strikeout leader as a hitter with 52 entering the day faced top-10 strikeout pitcher Tim Lincecum (45 K in 42.1 IP entering today) in the first-inning at spacious AT&T Park and promptly launched a home run. It was only the 2nd home run Lincecum had given up all year, and the hit brought Howard's batting average up to .173. I love baseball. You just never know.

Belisle rocked again

Cincinnati Reds starter Matt Belisle coughed up five earned runs in five innings while allowing seven hits against the Mets Saturday, ballooning his already balloon-like ERA to 7.45. While he's only made four starts this season, the Reds have been through this before and likely don't need to see much more to know what they're getting. Belisle lost nine games last year and posted a 5.32 ERA. He's never been more than back-end starter in recent seasons, and Cincy has top-of-the-line prospect Homer Bailey still waiting his turn in Triple-A Louisville. It would seem we're closer than ever to Bailey time. In fact, a call-up is practically overdue at this point.

While Bailey struggled with his control last season, posting 28 BB in 45.1 IP in the Majors, he's back in a groove at Louisville. Bailey's notched 39 Ks in 46.1 IP in the minors this year, walking only 12. In his last outing Bailey went seven solid innings, giving up four runs in a 4-1 loss, but opponents are hitting just .222 against him thus far, and the just-turned 22-year-old needs a chance to compete at the highest level sooner than later. Pick him up now. The Reds need help in the rotation.

Belisle's only hope is that manager Dusty Baker and GM Walt Jocketty, both new to the Cincinnati organization, think the 27-year-old right hander still possesses some upside. Certainly they know Bailey possesses more.

Izzy's out, for now

Tony La Russa announced Saturday that Jason Isringhausen will no longer close games for the St. Louis Cardinals. In the International Herald Tribune La Russa said, "(Isringhausen's) still prepared to pitch important innings, but for a while we'll try to keep him out of the ninth inning." He also said, "It needed to be done. It's a mental break more than anything."

While Spitting Seeds expected Isringhausen to stay in the closer role and iron out his problems, La Russa seems to be willing to get him away for a while. It will only be a short time before he's back closing games, however, as setup men Russ Springer and Ryan Franklin 24 times less experience than Izzy nailing down wins. If Springer and Franklin falter La Russa might soon need a mental break of his own.

Ortiz agrees: yank your Yanks

David Ortiz' somewhat ancient comments further reinforce the argument of Yanking your Yanks (at least with regard to Kei Igawa). After Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees starting pitchers have little to offer, and their offense is mediocre. Sounds a lot like the Texas Rangers.

No longer banking on Yanks

In years past the best source for a win was a New York Yankees starter. No matter who climbed the hill for the Bronx Bombers you knew that Bronx Bombing lineup would be enough to help get the job done more often than not. Not anymore. For starters, Yankee starters Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa are changing that notion thanks to their utter futility. Hughes (DL), Kennedy (sent to minors) and Igawa (struggled in his first 2008 start) can't seem to hold down the last starting spot in the Yankees rotation, and thanks to Hughes' injury the pinstripes turned to the not-so-spectacular Darrell Rasner. He's underwhelming statistically, but Rasner did win his first start of the season and was once a freshman All-American at Nevada (14-2 record in 2000).

Pitching, however, is not the Yanks main problem. Instead, it is the once opponent-terrorizing offense which suddenly looks terrifyingly offensive by Ruthian standards. New York is 15th in runs scored in the Majors with 162 touches of home plate entering the weekend. That sandwiches the biggest payroll in baseball between the penny-pushing Marlins and the underachieving Rockies. With Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada on the DL plus Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano struggling to hit their own weight, it might be a while before NY pitching (especially the back end of the staff) can be counted on to win each time out. As a whole the Yanks stand one game under .500 through 35 games this spring.

Rasner and Igawa are not worth much based on their own merit. Without above-average run support, they become below-average fantasy options in terms of earning wins. And if this option comes stumbling into the House that Ruth Built anytime soon, well, packing it up for that new home in 2009 might be the Yankees only option in real baseball terms.

Dizzy Izzy

Jason Isringhausen sure knows how to ruin Friday night in St. Louis. For the third TGIF in a row, ONII (Oh No, It's Izzy) blew a save. He's been downright awful this year, posting a 7.47 ERA and 1-4 record in 15.2 innings of work. That's typically grounds for losing your closer's role, but not in the Gateway City. Tony La Russa's best options after the fantasy flub that is Isringhausen are Ryan Franklin (2 career saves), Russ Springer (8) and Randy Flores (4). No thank you. Izzy owns 292 career saves including 11 this year. It's his ship to right for right now, otherwise the STL bullpen likely becomes a gateway to opponents' victories. None of the pitchers listed but Isringhausen is even worth owning in fantasy play right now.

Hey, Aaron Cook, that's enough!

Apparently Colorado Rockies starter Aaron Cook doesn't realize who he is. The guy whose career was partially derailed because of blood clots is now stopping the blood-letting that is the Colorado Rockies. While his team flounders below .500 and eight games out of first, Cook has been his usual, dominant self (at least for this year). He worked 7 strong innings, giving up 3 hits to pick up his 6th win of the season against San Diego Friday night. Colorado's actually won three in a row now, the first time they've won more than back-to-back games since a four-game win streak in mid-April. Cook is looking like a poor man's fantasy ace. His 2.40 ERA, however, would appear to be destined to climb with a lifetime mark at 4.34. Enjoy him while he's hot.

Friday, May 9, 2008

Jered Weaver: "They've figured me out."

After Thursday night's dismal outing, Jered Weaver's ERA ballooned to 5.59 and he lost a league-worst 5th game. As if those numbers aren't bad enough, perhaps most disturbing of all is what Weaver had say so after Thursday night's game. Sliding Shorts has the full story...and its FREE. Or you can just read more frightening Jered Weaver info below....

You dropped Jered Weaver!? Oh, OK

Startled by the perceived ingnorance of one owner in my fantasy baseball league for dropping Jered Weaver, I nearly made the mistake of my fantasy season: picking up Jered Weaver from the waiver wire and placing him on my team. Yikes! After checking out the numbers, Ignorant Owner, you're no longer ignorant. You're taking a calculated risk, and I think you might be on to something. To analyze, first we must understand Jered Weaver is not Jeff Weaver. Then we must compare the two to scare ourselves to the point of making a rational decision and not an emotional one. Again, Jered is not Jeff, not yet, anyway. It does, however, look like he might be well on his way to following in older brother's footsteps if this kind of thing keeps up.

Jeff Weaver is a tough player to statistically analyze due to his wild swings from effective to ineffective starter. His first few years on the Tigers proved to be productive if not remarkable. After imploding with the Yankees, he found it (whatever it is) again in Los Angeles. After going from the Dodgers to the Angles, however, he lost it again. Save for a brief stretch-run including a World Series shocker with the Cardinals he hasn't been a good fantasy option since, especially now that he's stuck in the minors.

Jered Weaver's recent success as a young pitcher trumps his brother's early track record. Over his first two seasons with the Angels, Jered dominated the American League with ERAs of 2.56 and 3.91. What's most impressive are his 24 victories in less than two actual full seasons of baseball. He won more than half of his starts and 73 percent of his decisions.

Unfortunaley for Jered, 2008 is a much different story. He's 2-5 with a Jeff-like 5.59 ERA. His home runs allowed are up, averaging about one per outing, and for the first time in his career Jered's given up more hits than innings pitched. While his walk rate 2.7/9 (2008) vs. 2.5/9 (career) has undergone a minuscule increase, his strikeout rate 6.0/9 (2008) vs. 6.8/9 (career) is in more discernible decline, and actually improved over his three recent shellings. Jered's biggest issue might be leaving the ball up. He used to induced twice as many groundballs as fly balls. This year the ratio is practially one to one.

Spitting Seeds recommendation: Jered Weaver is still the only Weaver brother worth owning in fantasy ball. While he's been a huge disappointment, he still carries value as a No. 4 starter at this time and is more likely to bounce back than not (he carried a 5.15 ERA into the 2nd week of May last year and finished at 3.91). Next week he's got two starts lined up, including one against the red-hot John Danks and the White Sox. Hang on to Weaver for now, although if you're a dice-roller, there might be something better out there. If he's on the waiver wire, you might be better off waiting for him to clear and become a free agent. Clayton Kershaw is certainly more worth of a waiver claim at this time.


Greg Smith: full-time starter?


Rookie Greg Smith pitches tonight for the Oakland A's. My interest in Smith is two-fold. First, I covered his career in high school at Alexandria Senior High in Alexandria, LA. Second, his fantasy value -- as well as other A's pitchers' fantasy values -- could be in store for a big change with what happens against the Texas Rangers tonight.

A few years back, Smith starred as both a pitcher and first baseman for the ASH Trojans, the same school Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre attended. Smith was groomed to play a high level of baseball by ASH coach Don Boniol, who sent several players to LSU. Boniol is connected to big-time sports on multiple levels. He also coached football at ASH, which typically sent a player or two to the college ranks. Boniol's son Chris kicked for the Dallas Cowboys. If it is possible for a high school to prepare a kid for the next level, ASH certainly has the credentials. Boniol definitely did a great job with his son, Pierre and Smith.

Back to tonight's Oakland game with Texas. Smith throws in what will be just his seventh MLB start. That it's his seventh start is not nearly as significant as it is the first time Smith will be throwing against a team he has already faced. On May 4th the Rangers managed just three hits in six innings against the 24-year-old left hander, striking out 10 times. If Smith can duplicate these numbers after Texas has seen and scouted him, his outstanding start to the season (2-1, 2.54 ERA, 31 K) should keep him in the Oakland rotation.

Smith already received a vote of confidence just last night when the A's moved righty Chad Gaudin out of the rotation to make room for Rich Harden, who is returning from the disabled list. Many speculated that either Smith or fellow first-year Athletic Dana Eveland would be demoted to the bullpen or to Triple-A Sacramento. That the A's chose to go with Smith and Eveland (24) over Gaudin (25) speaks volumes of their faith in the relatively untested left handers. That faith will only be reinforced tonight if Smith can make it two straight strong outings against a Major League ballclub. If not, Gaudin waits in the wing. He won a starting job just last season and has now lost it while still pitching well. It proves the A's are not necessarily committed to whom they give initial opportunities. Smith needs to take note.

Spitting Seeds' recommendation: Smith's been great at this point, but he and Eveland are like coal miners now that there are so many starting options in Oakland; they walk around on shaky ground.

Ludwick is a big lug


It's time to take a flier on the the Cardinals' Ryan Ludwick. The Minor League journeyman connected twice against the Rockies on Thursday, sending out his sixth and seventh Major League home runs in just 91 ABs. That puts him on pace for around 35 this season. At this point he's platooning in the Cardinals' four-man outfield rotation, but because his bat's been the biggest of the group, he could start getting even more ABs, which could lead to even more home runs. He has now hit safely in his last eight games, including three home runs in his last two. Ludwick has more home runs than Albert Pujols at this point of the season. He's tied with Pujols in runs scored, and he's just three RBI behind the Cardinals' slugger in 32 less ABs.

Can we expect upwards of 35 to 40 bombs from Mr. Ludwick this season? Tough call. The safest bet is no. Over parts of eight Major League seasons Ludwick has totaled enough ABs for a just over a full season as a starter. In that time he has a pedestrian .265 avg. and a solid .485 slugging percentage, making his isolated power .200. While the power numbers are above average by MLB standards, they are below the mark of a true power hitter. Ludwick also strikes out 27 percent of the time he comes to bat while walking just 65 times in 773 plate appearances. Both numbers are unspectacular considering he's more of a power hitter than a contact guy. So few walks indicate pitchers are willing to challenge Ludwick rather than pitch around him. They're not afraid.

That fact that Ludwick is lugging what are truly All-Star type numbers over the first six weeks of the season is probably a statistical aberration. Over time numbers tend to come back to reality, and there's no doubt the .363 and .758 slugging percentage will come down quite a bit. He's never even approached those kind of numbers at any level, and as he earns more at bats over a full major league season, the Ludwick we've seen in the past is more likely to emerge than the one currently doing so much damage to MLB pitching. With 26 Ks in 91 ABs, Ludwick is striking out more often than ever before, meaning the balls he's put in play are miraculously finding the turf of the seats at a rate that cannot continue. The more he plays, the more fielders get a glove on the balls he hits. With history as our guide, the strikeout rate won't change much. Ryan Ludwick's attractiveness will.

Spitting Seeds' suggestion: Take him while he's hot, so your opponents can't use him against you. This might last another month or so but certainly not for a full season.


Monday, May 5, 2008

Son of a Boggs? No.

Thanks to MLB.com I get a chance to watch prospects play in games I normally wouldn't get to see. Sometimes it's intentional, other times I stumble upon someone who just got the call to the Big Leagues. Tonight it's Texas' Brandon Boggs, whom I hadn't paid much attention to -- and according to sportsline.com it's with with good reason -- "Boggs is not a top prospect." He's not going to be on my fantasy team any time soon.

That said, when I saw his name listed in various fantasy reports I wondered if he was related to the great Wade Boggs. He isn't.

Cueto bounces back

Johnny Cueto appears to be beyond his years in terms of pitching acumen. Tonight he looked solid in a Monday night start against the top run-producing team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs (189 R). After back-to-back rough outings against Houston and at St. Louis (Sliding Shorts attended the game at Busch and had nothing good to report except that his brother got an autograph from Johnny C! Smart move, brother!), Cueto's solid back at home. His line: 6 inn, 6 H, 3 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, 8 K. He recorded his 2nd Major League win.

Prospects: 3 Up, 3 Down

We'll play a little 3 up, 3 down with some of baseball's "top" prospects. Some familiar names mixed with some names you might NOT have heard before.

...see Sliding Shorts to find out if your prospect is on the list...


Mad Monday - Today's pitching oddity

PHI: Moyer (1-2) vs. ARZ: Scherzer (0-0), 9:40 p.m. ET
Jamie Moyer is 45 years old. Monday Night he faces "Mad" Max Scherzer in Phoenix, the first start for Scherzer in his young Major League career. If he's anything like his relief debut, Scherzer is the odds-on favorite here. Moyer pitched his first major league game on June 16, 1986 for the Chicago Cubs. Exactly 41 days later the St. Louis-born Scherzer turned two.

Max Scherzer update - MLB team catching on... quickly...

Apparently the Arizona Diamondbacks read Spitting Seeds. Prize pitching product Max Scherzer made one appearance out of the bullpen, and is now set to throw his first Major League start on Monday night in Phoenix. We just wanted to point that out. If you want the insightful suggestion for the D'backs we posted days ago, read here...

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Ian Stewart update - media catching on... slowly...

So all that media buzz about Ian Stewart playing second for the Rockies is finally catching up with Spitting Seeds' notion that no sort of move would be made. All it took was an injury to Rockies star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki for people to catch on. Not only is Stewart not coming up to the Big Leagues, Triple-A regular Omar Quintanilla is now up with Colorado while Jeff Baker is playing 2nd base. Yikes. Stewart's staying at third in Colorado Springs. Garrett Atkins is better than him, so he'll remain the Rocks' third baseman. Stewart appears to be trade fodder at best, unless Colorado tanks. If that happens Atkins looks like he could be dealt, with Stewart eventually taking his spot at the Major League level. This might take a while.

Two-Start Pitchers (5/5-5/11)

We're taking a look at this coming week's (5/5-5/11) two-start pitchers. Obviously guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka (@ DET, @ MIN) and Javier Vazquez (@ TOR, @ SEA) are going to be slam dunks this week, but unless you have these guys on your team, it doesn't do you much good. We're going to dig a little deeper and find a few guys who might be available in your league that will be good two-start pitchers this week.

Partner-site Sliding Shorts has names you need to know this week...and its FREE

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Its pronounced HO-chay-ver

Fantasy owners thinking about picking up or trading for Kansas City hurler Luke Hochevar, think carefully before you pull the trigger. At first glance, he seems like a slam dunk: 24 years old, former #1 overall pick, no pressure on a bad Royals team, low 90s fastball. Sure he might end up being a slam dunk, but I'm not willing to bet on it right now.

...see Sliding Shorts for full article...

Thursday, May 1, 2008

All-Star balloting on May 1? Dumb.

Welcome to May. It's time to vote for the MLB all-star teams! Major League baseball is getting the word out on its site, asking fans to vote up to 25 times for their favorite players. 25 times! That's at least 24 times too many. Why should someone get 25 votes? It's kind of an arbitrary figure, isn't it, 25? Why not 250? Why more than once? Why should fans get to vote at all? How about you get one vote to pick players for the All-Star game. There aren't 25 of me, and if there are 25 of you I'm concerned for all 26 of us. Actually, I'm concerned for more than just us.

I'm also concerned that MLB thinks May is a good time to start voting. May is the fifth month of the calendar year, but in baseball it only comes second. April, May, June and part of July must all be played prior to All-Star Week. This pushes back the Mid-Summer Classic just past the halfway point of the season, which is good, because the All-Star Game historically has rewarded the players that have performed well over the first half of the season, not the first third of the season. This year's game is scheduled for smack dab in the middle of the season's fourth month, July 15th. So, in honor of that famous day, which is also the date of the First Crusade back in 1099, lets go on a short crusade of our own and slaughter the system that is voting for the All-Star teams. It's outdated, and it's dumb.

By starting voting during the first week of May, baseball gives fans a chance to vote for players who have not yet performed for one third of the time they'll have to play prior to the break. Oh, and you can vote 25 times right now. So lets say a pitcher like Cliff Lee gets all 25 of alot of peoples' votes right now, and then turns back into the real Cliff Lee, the one who's never been better than good. He'll keep all those votes, whether he deserved them or not, and that's not right.

I understand why voting started so early in years past. Back in say, 1982, when going to the ballpark was your best chance to get a ballot to vote for the likes of MVP candidate Jim Rice & company baseball gave fans one opportunity to vote per ballgame attended. If you only had a chance to go to a single game between May and July you still got some say in who started in the All-Star Game. It made sense back then. It doesn't make sense now. In this day in age we've got a little something called the internet which allows us to vote online for this year's MLB All-Star Game. Why not push voting back to the first week of July, so fans can use their 25 votes to pump the players that actually deserve to be in the next week's game? Why not limit the vote to one per fan, so everyone gets an equal say whether they could get to a ballpark or not.

Whether we like it or not (I don't), the All-Star Game matters. The winning league earns home-field advantage in the World Series. Therefore, we need a system that more accurately determines who's worthy of playing in the game. That said, why the heck are fans picking the starting lineups in the first place? Shouldn't the leagues choose the players they want to help them earn home-field advantage? That would be truly democratic and not dumb.

Liriano: A long way from fine

Well it could be awhile before we see Francisco Liriano return to form. I, for one, have been a believer in this guy all along, but I'm now coming to grips with the fact that it might be awhile before we see the "old" Liriano again.

In 3 big league starts since returning from injury, Liriano showed no signs of being the ace the Twins hoped he'd be:

...see Sliding Shorts for full article...