Thursday, July 1, 2010

Enright wins, remains in rotation

Diamondbacks rookie Barry Enright earned a win in his MLB debut with five innings of one-run baseball to down the Cardinals, 4-2. Enright will remain in the starting rotation for a while with the demotion of Dontrelle Willis to the bullpen.

Fantasy Impact: Willis immediately loses any kind of fantasy appeal he had left. Enright is a rookie who is worth a look in deeper leagues. The 24-year-old former second-round pick doesn't sound overpowering, but he improved his numbers over three seasons of minor league ball while making the jump from A-ball to Double-A. That says he learned to do a little pitching in his time in the minor leagues. His improved strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine innings this season at Double-A suggests he's got enough stuff to fool some MLB hitters. A low walk rate also helps matters despite the fact that Enright walked four batters over five innings in his debut. He's at least worth a flier, especially with the advantage of facing teams that have never seen him before.

Giants trade Molina; Posey to earn more at bats

The Giants sent catcher Bengie Molina to Texas Wednesday for reliever Chris Ray. The move clears the way for rookie Buster Posey to take over as full-time backstop in San Francisco despite his recent slump. He's hitting just .146 over his last 14 games.

Fantasy Impact: The Rangers were searching for a catcher for quite some time, and Molina is a good fit. He should improve his ho-hum offensive numbers in the Rangers' stacked lineup.

Posey's labored promotion to the big leagues is suddenly accelerated with his promotion to starting catcher. The move means San Francisco is buying into Posey even if he's not hitting consistently at the MLB level. But to say that is misleading. Despite his slump Posey is at .289 for the season, and he routinely makes solid contact. His BABIP of .310 isn't exceedingly high, but it can improve when you consider that Posey has walked just 3 times in 102 plate appearances. That means he's likely chasing pitches early in at bats rather than finding a good pitch to hit. His better selectivity in the minors yielded a career batting average of .333. Once he becomes settled at the MLB level, expect big things.

Ray is less of a strikeout pitcher now (4.5 K/9 in 2010 vs. 7.7 for his career), but he's limiting hitters to just 6.8 hits per game. He'll be a setup-type reliever for the Giants.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

LaPorta resurfaces

Matt LaPorta will return to the majors as a full-time player now that the Indians have traded Russell Branyan to Seattle. LaPorta struggled to find consistency at the plate in his first stint with the big league club this season. Since getting demoted in early June, however, he's hit .353 with a .632 SLG in Triple-A.

Fantasy Impact: LaPorta's career minor league numbers (.296 AVG, .388 OBP, .563 SLG) point to an ability to impact the game at a high level. Through 87 MLB games the production hasn't been there. What to do with LaPorta? It's a more clear-cut situation now in Cleveland with Branyan out of the way at first base. LaPorta owns a singular starting position at first base, and he'll be given every opportunity to play regularly for a poor Indians team. That can mean significant payoff in fantasy ball. LaPorta is an intelligent addition for teams looking for an impact bat in the second half. He may run through streaks of both good and bad, but his minor league numbers represent a positive background for a relatively green major leaguer. Add LaPorta, stash him on your bench and hope the breakthrough is coming shortly.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Bumgarner loses first start

Giants youngster Madison Bumgarner made his much-anticipated first start of 2010 and fared well enough to hang around in the big leagues. After some early hiccups, including two home runs and four earned runs in the first two innings, Bumgarner settled down and pitched seven innings, throwing 66 of his 96 pitches for strikes.

Fantasy Impact: Most teams would take those kinds of numbers from their fifth starter, which is exactly Bumgarner's slot for now. He is, however, much more talented than a back-end pitcher in San Francisco's rotation. Bumgarner is a potential future star with high-end upside. He deserves to be active in all formats.

Heyward thumbs down

Braves outfielder Jason Heyward has revealed that an injured left thumb is hampering his approach at the plate. His average had plummeted 50 points since May 30 with many analysts, writers and bloggers believing he was mired in a typical rookie slump. He's expected to miss at least a couple of games and will visit a hand specialist while he's out.

Fantasy Impact: The good news? This isn't your typical skid for a young player, which means Heyward may still be the fantasy baseball freak everyone was hoping to be landing. He has homered just once in his last 24 games, but the power outage may be due to that thumb issue. Then again, we don't know when the problem perked up. We also don't know how long he'll be out. Any time a player visits a specialist it's a situation beyond your typical aches and pains. Heyward may be out or affected by the injury for much more than a span of two missed games. He's a major keeper candidate, but his stock for 2010 may be slipping.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Meek shall inherit a closer job?

Until now, Evan Meek was just a fireballer with an impressive set of stats (9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 H/9) over a small sample size (19 IP). You know, that flash-in-the-pan type who can't harness his stuff for more than a few outings at a time. Now that he's put it together for all of April, Meek is getting picked up off the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues as a stray-saves hopeful and potential replacement for struggling Pirates closer Octavio Dotel.

Now the speculation on Meek's value reaches a new high; people within the Pirates organization believe the closer job is headed his way.
Meek, a Rule 5 draft pick in December of that year, has a 0.53 ERA through 13 appearances, 17 strikeouts to five walks, a .183 opponents' batting average and a save in his only opportunity to fill in for Octavio Dotel. Among National League relievers, only Colorado's Randy Flores and Washington's Tyler Clippard have lower ERAs.

All that, and his fastball -- which peaked with a 98-mph register a month ago in Phoenix -- as well as a dynamic slider and changeup have many associated with the team feeling it is a matter of time until he closes.
Now, let it be noted that there's no attribution to anyone making this claim other than "many associated with the team," but this is how a story leaks. Meek is still young (27), talented and speculated about. If we're thinking he's got closer written all over him, the Pirates are thinking the same. With Octavio Dotel signed to a one-year deal and likely tradable as a setup man due to his long-standing reputation at the MLB level, there's very little holding the Pirates back. Once they deem Meek ready to handle the pressure, the job is his. It's time to get serious on Meek as a long-term candidate to close in Pittsburgh. Cross your fingers that his production is suddenly legit. The Pirates are.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Wood returns, but for how long?

Kerry Wood returns to the Cleveland Indians as the team's closer and is officially rumored as trade bait by USA Today. This significantly devalues Chris Perez, who now resumes his role as Wood's primary setup man.

Fantasy Impact: A trade would be good for Wood, who doesn't look to get many save chances for the Indians. A trade would also be good for Perez, who would finally get his shot to close games at the MLB level full-time.

Corpas heads Rockies relief corp

Manny Corpas officially gets the nod as Rockies interim closer over other options including Franklin Morales. This wasn't unexpected considering Corpas' success this season, which includes a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. That's great, but Corpas has given up runs in two of his last three outings. He's also not your prototypical closer with career 1.31 WHIP and 6.4 K/9 numbers. His 2010 strikeout total (6.6 K/9) is right on pace with typical Corpas numbers. Remember, this is a guy who both won and lost the Rockies closer job two years ago. He'll be counted on only as long as he is effective.

Fantasy Impact: Huston Street, the Rockies regular closer, is expected back at the MLB level within the next two weeks. Corpas is worth the add, certainly, but he's always a risk to struggle.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

AJacks' achilles

Let me be the second to call him AJax; that was accomplished on April 12th by a Royals-Tigers blogger. Let me be the first to remind you that being called Ajax has its problems. You may remember in Greek mythology Ajax was the warrior of greatest stature, but he was not the greatest Greek warrior. While he put up great numbers killing 28 Trojans at the battle of Troy, he didn't quite make it to the Trojan Horse, the official Greek Plan B after their powerful army had failed them.

Like his namesake, the Tigers' Austin Jackson (.369 AVG, 45 H, .421 OBP, 5 SB) is putting up incredible numbers in his rookie season, making him look like a steal in the Curtis Granderson (.225 AVG, .311 OBP) trade. Such in-credible numbers are, in fact, not credible.

Jackson leads the majors in at bats (122) and hits (45) and is tied for the American League lead in triples with three. He's getting on base frequently at the top of the Tigers order and has stolen five bags. This is all-time rookie-of-the-year type stuff, and, as I pointed out on my blog prior to the season, it's unlikely to last. At that time, I compared Jackson to more of a Carlos Gomez-type than an Andrew McCutchen-type.

AJax also leads the majors in BABIP and strikeouts, which is the molotov cocktail of a hitting fraud. As far as we know, the original Ajax never resorted to IEDs to get his fighting done. What's so concerning about the Tiger's rookie is just how high those numbers are. His BABIP of .523 is so absurdly high that second place David Freese trails him by 79 points. In recent seasons league average usually falls right around .300 for BABIP, placing Jackson 223 points above the norm.

Last season's league leaders in BABIP were: D. Wright (.394), Ichiro (.384), H. Ramirez (.379) and J. Mauer (.373)

That's great company for Jackson but rather lofty expectations considering he is a 23-year-old rookie. Bringing Jackson down to league average for BABIP returns a batting average of .211, and even if he hits like 2009 David Wright the rest of the year he's hitting no better than .278 from here on out.

Jackson's 35 strikeouts prove more alarming. He's whiffing 29 percent of the time, eight points above league average. Of the 2009 BABIP leaders, only David Wright can even approach that number. Jackson struck out 22 percent of the time in Triple-A last year and in Double-A two years ago when he produced averages of .300 and .285 respectively. These numbers, however, indicate he will slip back toward the mean in terms of his batting average, making that .278 mark anticipatory.

Fantasy Impact: All of this likely brings Jackson back to the pack as we move through May and into June. He's a good sell-high candidate who can produce at a respectable-enough level to maintain third or fourth outfielder status in most fantasy formats; he's obviously not as ho-hum as Carlos Gomez, but he's still no Andrew McCutchen. Hey, the original Ajax was no better than second fiddle himself.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Heyward hitting pretty

A lot has been made of Braves rookie right fielder Jason Heyward this spring. That hype will continue after Heyward homered in his first major league at bat on opening day and finished with a 2-5, 2 R, 4 RBI line in his first game. What was most impressive about Heyward, however, was his poise at bat. Only twice in five at bats did he swing at the first pitch he saw, and he typically worked counts to his favor before picking out a pitch to hit.

Before homering off of Carlos Zambrano in the first inning, Heyward remained patient, taking two balls before ripping a sinking fastball into the right field bullpen. In the third, Heyward worked a 1-1 count before slashing a line drive out to first off lefty Sean Marshall's curveball. After getting called out on strikes against lefty James Russell in the fifth, Heyward became more aggressive in his final two at bats. He swung at the first pitch in each of his final at bats - eventually putting the ball in play both times, the second with a base hit in the ninth inning.

Fantasy Impact: Heyward is handling the attention well to this point. He's proving he can be an elite performer as well. With outstanding balance and a solid approach at the plate, Heyward is living up to the hype and continues to play exceptionally well as a 20-year-old. Heyward walked 51 times in 362 at bats at Triple-A last season, and his walk total equaled his strikeout mark. We'll have to wait and see if he can remain selective over 162 games at the MLB level, but there's no reason to doubt his talent at this point. Heyward appears to be the Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria breakout-type rookie of 2010.

Street gets good news on bad shoulder

Rockies closer Huston Street got a second opinion on his ailing throwing shoulder from Dr. James Andrews, and the news is good. He's expected to return on schedule in May.
According to Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd, Street received positive news from Andrews.

"Everything looked great. I was told they didn't see any issues at all, so we are going to keep doing the same thing with him," O'Dowd said after the Rockies' 5-3 opening-day win over Milwaukee. "He wanted a second opinion, and everything came back really good."

Street, 26, received a three-year, $22.5 million contract this winter, the largest deal the Rockies have awarded a reliever. He admitted that a change in his winter routine could have caused the shoulder stiffness that first developed in February. Looking to increase his velocity, Street threw off a mound multiple times before spring training, something he had never done before.
Fantasy Impact: This is good news for the Rockies and fantasy owners alike, but it still means Street will miss more than one-sixth of the 2010 season. He slips to a low-end No. 2 closer until he can prove he's back and consistent as Rockies closer. For now, Franklin Morales owns the de facto closer job in Colorado. He's no more than a high-end No. 3 closer due to his erratic performance the first time out.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

2010 MLB closer rankings

***Updated: 3/8/10 @ 9:41 AM CST***

***ON HIATUS THRU MARCH 22ND; PLEASE CHECK BACK ON MARCH 23RD***

Analyzing the top fantasy closer options heading into spring 2010. Each pitcher's age he'll turn during the 2010 season is listed next to his name. Stats that follow include his 2009 season vitals and three-year averages:

For 2010 MLB closer depth chart updates, click here.

1. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (26)
2009: 2.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 36 SV
3-YR: 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 17 SV
***Broxton earned full-time closer duties for the first time in his career in 2009. He strikes more batters than any other relief ace, but sometimes that comes at the cost of a high pitch count. That also seems to be the only thing that can slow him down. Broxton pitches for a good Dodgers team that should earn him plenty of save chances.

2. Joe Nathan, MIN (35)
2009: 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 47 SV
3-YR: 1.77 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 41 SV
***Nathan pitched part of the 2009 season not feeling at top form and still produced arguably the best season of any closer in baseball. His 47 saves were second only to Brian Fuentes' 48. Nathan had bone chips removed from his elbow in October, and he was removed from his first outing this spring with elbow soreness. We're not willing to write him off until further news breaks, but Nathan may become one of the enigmas of the 2010 season; he's good enough to be the second-best closer in baseball, but his injury situation may derail his season.

3. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (29)
2009: 1.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 38 SV
***Papelbon's season was a tale of two halves. He walked 18 batters and gave up four home runs before the all-star break, then bounced back with just six walks and one homer allowed the rest of the way. He tinkered with his delivery and approach last offseason, so getting used to the changes may have taken their toll early on. In the end, Papelbon remains a relief ace. His 1.84 career ERA speaks to his continuing dominance late in games.

4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (40)
2009: 1.76 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 44 SV
3-YR: 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 37 SV
***Rivera actually bettered his three-year averages at the age of 39 and posted his best ERA since 2005. He's got to slow down at some point, and he started slowly in 2009. Then he posted better numbers than anyone at the closing position. Pitching for a sure-fire winner this season keeps him near the top of the closer heap.

5. Heath Bell, SD (33)
2009: 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 42 SV
3-YR: 2.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 14 SV
***Bell saved 42 games for a Padres team that won just 75 times. The longtime understudy to Trevor Hoffman finally stepped into the closer role and continued to post strong numbers that were a general improvement on his career marks. He had some tough times with the Yankees earlier in his career but no clunker seasons since arriving in San Diego three years ago.

6. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (28)
2009: 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 35 SV
3-YR: 2.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 45 SV
***Last season, K-Rod seemed far removed from his record-setting 2008. Rodriguez actually pitched well in his new home, but it was his road troubles (5.52 ERA away from Citi Field) that turned in a mediocre statline. His 6.75 ERA after the all-star break speaks to wearing down at the end of the year and could be a result of averaging 73-plus innings over the last seven seasons. Expect improved numbers from the 28-year-old in 2010, but don't assume he'll ascend to past success.

7. Huston Street, COL (27)
2009: 3.06 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 35 SV
3-YR: 3.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 23 SV
***He trends hot and cold, which can be devastating for fantasy owners, but when he's good (which is more often than not), Huston Street is a legitimate No. 1 fantasy baseball closer. After losing his closer role in April, Street regained form and saved 35 games. He's on a Rockies team expected to contend in 2010, an he can dominate when in form, posting WHIP averages of 0.91 over the past three seasons.

8. Brian Wilson, SF (28)
2009: 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 3.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 28 SV
***Wilson led full-time closers with seven blown saves last year, but that was the lone blemish on an otherwise outstanding seasons. He improved dramatically in his second full season as Giants closer, giving up ten fewer runs in ten more innings than he did in 2008.

9. Jose Valverde, DET (32)
2009: 2.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 25 SV
3-YR: 2.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 39 SV
***Valverde battled injuries and a bad baseball team to put together a stat-strong season outside of his 25 total saves. Now that he's in Detroit pitching for a contender, expect Valverde to turn in his usual productive year. He posted save totals of 47 and 44 before last year's so-so mark. We'll expect him to approach 40 in 2010.

10. David Aardsma, SEA (28)
2009: 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 4.31 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 13 SV
***After starting his year behind Brandon Morrow for the Seattle closer role, Aardsma eventually took over and put together easily the best season of his career. The former first-round pick finally made good on his promise, and he could've topped 40 saves with ease had he opened the year as Seattle's stopper. Because he's only put it all together this one time, we'd like to see him do it again before we consider him a sure-fire No. 1 closer. Until then, he's on the edge of the top group.

11. Joakim Soria, KC (26)
2009: 2.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11.7 WHIP, 30 SV
3-YR: 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.0 WHIP, 30 SV
***Prognosticators don't particularly like Soria's fantasy outlook because he pitches for the perennially last-place Royals, but that's not our opinion. Two years ago Soria saved 42 games for Kansas City, and the only thing that stopped him from approaching 40 saves again was time spent on the disabled list. His shoulder woes of a year ago were a concern, but he bounced back nicely with 69 strikeouts in 53 innings. His dominant stuff puts him right at the edge of the No. 1 closer group, and a better team would make him an injury-risk top-six or -eight closer. Only pass him up if there's further concern about his arm this spring.

12. Francisco Cordero, CIN (35)
2009: 2.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 39 SV
3-YR: 2.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 39 SV
***Reliability is perhaps Cordero's greatest strength. Over the past three seasons, you knew exactly what you were getting. A good ERA, a mediocre WHIP, enough Ks and a solid average of 39 saves. He's not an elite closing option, but he's good enough to demand a spot as a low-end No. 1 closer. With his age creeping up, we'll look for cracks in the foundation or younger emerging stars to pass him by, but he's held them off to this point.

13. Andrew Bailey, OAK (26)
2009: 1.84 ERA, 0.876 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 26 SV
3-YR: N/A
***Bailey began the year as the A's third option at closer and wound up winning AL rookie of the year as the team's relief ace. He saved 26 saves and produced stunning ERA and WHIP numbers that will have fantasy owners reaching a little to grab him earlier than he should be valued in year two. Bailey posted an ERA of 3.50 as mostly a starter in the minors while his strikeout rate actually improved at the MLB level. We like him as an outside shot as a No. 1 closer, but really no better than that. If he was on a contender, Bailey would have to jump up into that top tier.

14. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (42)
2009: 1.83 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 37 SV
3-YR: 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 36 SV
***No longer the power closer he once was, Hoffman's best seasons are likely behind him, especially now that 2009 is in the rear-view mirror. At age 41, Hoffman turned in an All-Star performance by closing 37 of his 41 save chances. It's hard to believe he can keep it up for much longer, but there's really no reason to doubt his ability after last season. Hoffman is no worse than a high-end No. 2 closer, but he can finish with near-elite status on a decent Brewers team.

15. Billy Wagner, ATL (38)
2009: 1.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, 0 SV
3-YR: 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 20 SV
***Write sleeper all over Wagner in 2010. He's a dominant career relief ace who is back from injury, and last season he proved dominant in a setup role for the Red Sox down the stretch. Now with the Braves, he's not on a particularly good baseball team, so his chances may be a bit limited for saves. He's also not expected to pitch on back-to-back days, further limiting saves chances. All things considered, we'd rather bet on Wagner than bet against him. His body of work is nothing short of hall of fame, and he should be a consistently good pitcher even if he can't make it past 30 saves in 2010. We list him as 15th on our closer list, but he can slide up into the top 10 or 12 easily.

16. Brian Fuentes, LAA (35)
2009: 3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 48 SV
3-YR: 3.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 32 SV
***Fuentes managed an anomaly of a season, posting a league-high 48 saves with one of the more mediocre closer statlines in baseball. His 7.5 K/9 and 1.40 WHIP expose his inability to dominate, but to his credit he still got the job done for the Angels. Fuentes was largely unchallenged in Anaheim last year thanks to injuries decimating the bullpen. Now he'll have to fend off the likes of Scot Shields and dare we say Fernando Rodney. He's still the man, but if he coughs up a few more saves in 2010, there will be less leeway than last year.

17. Rafael Soriano, TB (30)
2009: 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 27 SV
3-YR: 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 13 SV
***Tampa tried nine different pitchers in save situations in 2009, but Soriano figures to get the lion's share this year. He has the stuff to dominate, as evidenced by his impressively low WHIP and high K/9 numbers in 2009. Soriano has battled injuries and some inconsistency in his career, but if he puts it together, he's immediately an elite saves option. Tampa manager Joe Maddon has a track record of trying to find the right matchups for his relievers, so lefty J.P. Howell may take a a couple of handfuls of opportunities away from Soriano, but he's the man moving forward.

18. Frank Francisco (31)
2009: 3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 25 SV
3-YR: 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 10 SV
***One of the game's exciting arms is still a bit of a fantasy baseball enigma. Francisco can dominate, but he is prone to struggle at times. He can rattled off a string of saves last season, but he also broke down with injuries. More often than not, he is brilliant. Francisco won the Rangers closer job last season, holding off a decent candidate in C.J. Wilson, and it appears the job is safely his in 2010. Wilson still lurks (if he doesn't make the rotation), as does youngster Neftali Feliz. Francisco can be one of the game's best closers if he can put together a full season.

19. Ryan Franklin, STL (37)
2009: 1.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 2.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.7 k/9, 19 SV
***In his first full fantasy-ownership-worthy season since he was a starter back in 2003 with Seattle, Franklin put up the best season of his career for five months. Then the wheels fell off in September. Franklin does pitch for a contender in St. Louis, but he doesn't fill out the statline like your typical stopper. He's 37 on opening day, and that means he possesses almost no upside. We'll call 2009 a career year and expect his numbers to slip in 2010.

20. Carlos Marmol, CHC (27)
2009: 3.41 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 15 SV
3-YR: 2.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 8 SV
***Marmol is a maddening talent capable of dominating like few other relievers in baseball while simultaneously shooting himself in the foot. He strikes out well over 11 batters per inning for his MLB career, but he hit 12 batters in 2009 and walked almost eight per nine innings. That's not closer material, and yet Marmol wrestled the job away from Kevin Gregg last year and enters 2010 the Cubs' clear-cut favorite to take the reigns. On the positive side, he's never been as wild as he was last season. On the negative, he's going to get himself and potentially your fantasy team in trouble.

21. Bobby Jenks, CHW (29)
2009: 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 29 SV
3-YR: 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 33 SV
***This is one of the more difficult projections heading into the 2010 season. Jenks posted the worst save total of his four-year run as White Sox stopper, but he actually improved his strikeout numbers (8.3 K/9 in 2009 vs. 5.5 K/9 in 2008). He's no fantasy ace, and while he remained a No. 2 closer for most of last season, he's no lock to remain the Sox closer this season with people like J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton breathing down his neck. Ozzie Guillen seems to like Jenks, though, and the big man dropped some weight and stopped drinking in the offseason. He's in pretty good shape going into 2010 and still one of the game's top 20 closers.

22. Chad Qualls, ARZ (31)
2009: 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 24 SV
3-YR: 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 13 SV
***Possessing the makeup to close, Qualls finally got his shot in 2009. His seems had it's ups and downs, but the only thing stopping Qualls from approaching 30 saves was a dislocated kneecap with a handful of weeks to go in the season. He's on schedule to start the year as Diamondbacks closer, but Juan Gutierrez might push him a little for the job. We expect Qualls to earn the position out of spring training, but there's no reason for the contract player not to be trade bait come the July 31st deadline. Gutierrez might get his chances again late in the year.

23. Leo Nunez, FLA (26)
2009: 4.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 26 SV
3-YR: 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 9 SV
***Nunez inherited the Marlins closer job midway through 2009 and did a decent-enough job to hold the position the remainder of the year. He's not overpowering, but he has good stuff. He enters the year as the Marlins full-time closer with room for improvement. He's worth drafting as a third closer or potentially a low-end No. 2.

24. Brad Lidge, PHI (33)
2009: 7.21 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 31 SV
3-YR: 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 30 SV
***Lidge is as good as it gets when he's right, and he's incredibly awful when he's wrong. Last year, he was all wrong. Whether he fought injuries or simply struggled doesn't matter, a 7.21 ERA and 1.81 WHIP certainly cost the Phillies and numerous fantasy franchises. He can bounce back with elite numbers, but now at the age of 33, you have to expect Lidge's best days (which were dominant) to be well behind him. We're looking for something along the line of his three-year average in terms of a projection for this year. Anything worse and he could lose his job.

Garnering consideration:

Kerry Wood
Mike Gonzalez
Matt Capps
Jason Frasor
Octavio Dotel
Brandon Lyon
Matt Lindstrom
J.P. Howell
Jim Johnson
C.J. Wilson
Kevin Gregg
Juan Gutierrez
Ryan Madson

Nathan's elbow tight

Joe Nathan threw 20 pitches and had to leave his spring training debut with tightness in his right elbow. Nathan needed offseason surgery to clean out bone spurs in that same elbow, so this is potentially significant news.
"[There was] some tightness, achiness. We didn't want to push through anything," Nathan said of his elbow. "I think it's more being careful than anything right now. [We are] taking things slow because we still have a lot of time."

Nathan had recorded just one out in the contest when he was removed from the game. He struck out the first batter he faced and then issued two walks. Nathan appeared upset with the final pitch he threw, which resulted in a walk to J.D. Drew.
Fantasy Impact: Nathan is consistently one of the top closers in baseball, but now that he's approaching the latter years of his career and has an injury concern, confidence in him may begin to falter. He's capable of posting some of the best closer numbers in baseball if he's right. Right now, he's not and needs monitoring.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Hamilton still hurting

Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton is pushing his return from a shoulder ailment back to next week.
"I figure if a guy's going to have some down time, have it early," Washington said. "It's no concern."

Hamilton said he wants to make sure he gets healthy so the pain doesn't linger.

"I need to patient with it so I know when I go back out it's not going to hurt and I'm not going to have a setback," Hamilton said. "I don't want to make it mad again."
Fantasy Impact: He missed nearly half of last season with nagging injuries, so this news has to cause some concern. Hamilton had slipped to the middle rounds after an all-star performance in 2008 and then a subpar 2009. We expect him to produce like a No. 2 outfielder with the potential for major upside. If this spring injury continues to linger, call him no better than a No. 3 option due to injury concern.

Blue Jays closer up for grabs

The Blue Jays have three pitchers vying for the closer job: Jason Frasor, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg. At this point The Globe and Mail suggests Gregg is the front runner in spring training.
"He has the stature," Blue Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton said. "He's big, he don't look real nice, and I don't think he is nice when he gets out on the mound. He has that appearance that he's going out there and he doesn't even want to see you foul a ball off. That's pretty special."

If anyone has the inside track, it is probably Gregg, won signed a one-year, $2.45-million (U.S.) contract in the off-season.

After totalling 61 saves in two seasons with the Florida Marlins, Gregg was traded to the Chicago Cubs, but 2009 was a struggle as he went 5-6 with 23 saves and a 4.72 ERA. He also surrendered 13 home runs, tying him for the major-league lead among relief pitchers, and eventually lost his closer's job last August.
Fantasy Impact: Stature didn't help Gregg hold down the Cubs closer job. Both Chicago and Florida were willing to give him up in back-to-back offseasons, which doesn't say much for the veteran. We don't believe Gregg is a favorite in the race for Jays closer. We're leaning toward Frasor earning the job at this time. This is likely the best battle in terms of closers this spring, but the winner might not get a ton of save chances for a potentially last-place Tortonto team.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Sizemore to bat second

The Cleveland Indians will drop Grady Sizemore out of the leadoff spot and insert Asdrubal Cabrera in his place. Sizemore will bat second, giving him more chances to drive in runs.
Acta thinks Sizemore's average yearly output of 25 homers will produce more runs if he avoids hitting many of them with nobody on base. As he reiterated Monday, ''Grady was guaranteed to come to the plate 150 times with nobody on base as a leadoff hitter.''
It's an intelligent move. Cabrera bumped his average up 49 points last year to .308, and his .361 OBP is good enough to lead off, even if it's not ideal. We'd like to see Sizemore in the No. 5 spot, where he's likely to drive in a lot of runs and have the chance to steal bases in front of lesser hitters.

Fantasy Impact: This impacts both players. Cabrera should see plenty of pitches to hit at the top spot, so we expect him to be able to maintain a high average and score at least 85 or 90 runs. He stole 17 bases last season but has just 21 for his career. It's hard to say if he'll become more of a threat.

Sizemore should benefit in most categories other than steals. He's never tallied more than 100 RBI in a season, so this year could be his first. At full health, he's a 5-tool fantasy player and a steal in drafts if he falls below the 3rd round.

Roll the dice on Daisuke

Daisuke Matsuzaka is finally throwing pitches this spring after a back injury derailed his schedule. His role is hardly defined with the Red Sox in 2010.
There’s no such chance, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona said with a smile that Dice-K is getting closer to at least throwing from a live pitcher’s mound, a first step toward getting him into what figures to be a healthy competition for the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs with Tim Wakefield [stats] and Clay Buchholz.

“Dice had a great day,” Francona said. “It was as good a day as he’s had. Toward the end of the week we’ll get him some mound work. What we’re trying to do is get him ready properly (for the season) and not have artificial deadlines.”
Fantasy Impact: Matsuzaka may be fighting for a rotation spot, but if he's right, he's almost certain to win a job. The 29-year-old right hander owns a 37-21 career record. He gives up base runners, and when he's off his game as he was in 2009, that can spell trouble. He may not open the year a part of the Red Sox rotation due to his slow start this spring, but he's still worth a sleeper pick in the middle to late rounds of any fantasy draft.

After all, Wakefield is only as good as his knuckleball and Buchholz has yet to put it all together for more than a short stretch at the major league level.

Jenks behind schedule despite improved health

At the start of spring training White Sox talk gravitated toward the subject of Bobby Jenks' weight loss. Now we learn that while Jenks may be more svelt this season, he's not on schedule at this point in spring training. Pitching coach Don Cooper isn't one to stress about Jenks.
''Because Bobby worked so hard on his conditioning, plus Bobby had another child, plus the weather in Chicago is bad,'' Cooper said. ''And he told me he had a little difficulty getting somebody to catch him. So he was just playing more catch than actually pitching off a mound. ''But one thing I know about Bobby, every year if you look back everybody is, 'Geez, we've got to get him in shape. Geez, he's not ready.' But when it came to Opening Day, he was always ready. I know he's going to be ready again.''
Fantasy Impact: The White Sox continue to have faith in Jenks, and until we see him falter and get pulled in favor of one of Chicago's many talented relievers, he's still worh a spot on a fantasy roster as a No. 2 closer. He's not the prettiest or safest acquisition, but he's steady enough going into the year.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

ESPN talks to Scout X

ESPN reports various musings from Scout X, a big-league scout with a couple of interesting considerations for the 2010 season. Among them:

He thinks Matt Cain has a better six- to eight-year outlook than Tim Lincecum.

He also likes Phil Hughes over Joba Chamberlain for Yankees fifth starter.

Nothing else really stands out.

Fantasy Impact: It's becoming fairly typical for those doubting the diminutive Lincecum and his unique pitching rotation. We still find the best analysis of his mechanics to be much less of an indictment than what the doubters are saying.

Hughes vs. Chamberlain is certainly a tossup. Neither is a good fantasy option due to their low sample size and MLB inconsistency, but they both deserve flier picks due to playing for the Yankess.

Reyes HGH concerns

Jose Reyes got a visit from the FBI regarding a doctor he worked with in connection with HGH.
“They asked me if he inject me with that, I said no,” Reyes said. “What we do there is basically is he took my blood out, put in some machine, spit it out and put it back into my leg.”

He was referring to a procedure that was intended to help him recover from a hamstring injury.

Reyes said that he met with the authorities for less than an hour and that he was surprised they wanted to meet with him.

“They called me in the morning and said they wanted to meet me,” Reyes said. “I mean, they said this is the F.B.I., and I said, man, what did I do wrong. I was kind of surprised a little, scared, but after that, they said should be no problem with me, it’s just an investigation. Right now I don’t worry because he don’t put nothing like that in my body. I know what he was doing with me, so I don’t have to worry about that because I know I’m fine.”
Fantasy Impact: It would not appear that Reyes is in much trouble, especially if the FBI actually told him there's not a problem. He remains the third best option at shortstop in fantasy baseball after Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. He has the opportunity to place as high as second if healthy.