Saturday, February 28, 2009

'Shoe' fitting at second

The Skip Schumaker experiment at second base continued for the Cardinals today, making this Schumaker's third start at the position in four spring games. MLB.com wrote about Schumaker's development at the position on Friday.
"The first three or four plays have been the best for me," said Schumaker, who fielded a popup and a soft liner in his second-base debut on Wednesday. "Getting acclimated, I couldn't ask for an easier way to get kind of settled in. To get into the game and get involved and stop thinking about what's going to happen for that first play is big. So I'm glad it finally happened."

It's still far too early to weigh in with any kind of judgment on the level of success of Schumaker's move. But at least he hasn't done anything to play himself out of the position yet.

"He needs game situations where he's got to run and he can make plays," said manager Tony La Russa. "But he's handling it in a way that makes you want to keep trying."
Schumaker's first full season as a starter was impressive to a degree. At the age of 28 he it .302 with a .359 OBP but with limited power. His eight home runs leave a lot to be desired from an outfielder, whether he's in center or a corner spot. That, and the Cardinals lack at second base, is the reason for his transition to infield.

Fantasy Analysis: It's intriguing to look at the possibilities of Schumaker moving to the infield. His average certainly competes favorably at the position, and he's in a productive lineup, meaning he can be a fairly safe bet to score 80-100 runs if he plays every day. That said, Schumaker is quite a bit below average (even at the second base position) in terms of pop. He turned in a measly .754 OPS in 2008 and hasn't stolen enough bases in recent years at any level to be considered a value in that category. He does, however, merit a look in larger or deeper leagues as a player than can be productive enough not to hurt you at his position. He's potentially worth a roster spot as a reserve or middle infielder if he wins the job.

Carpenter successful in first outing

Chris Carpenter took a solid first step in his attempt to return from a series of injuries dating back to opening night, 2007. He threw 19 pitches and 13 strikes in a spring training start against the Washington Nationals today, working the first two innings to pick up a win.
On Saturday, though, he looked every bit as sharp as ever. He retired the first batter he faced on a ground ball to second base, then hit Lastings Milledge. After that, Carpenter sat down the next five batters. Three hitters flied out to center field, though none of the balls were hit hard. His outing ended when Jesus Flores and Jose Castillo each grounded out to third base.

Carpenter threw 11 pitches in the first inning, eight for strikes. Five of his eight offerings in the second inning went for strikes. He is scheduled to start again on Friday at home against the Mets.
There's no word on Carpenter's mechanics or velocity, but 13 strikes in 19 pitches is a good sign. We'll stop short of glowing over this development as he only threw two innings and 19 pitches. He'll have to show a lot more than that if he wants to return to the Redbird rotation. That said, this is a positive outing, and Carpenter must be watched closely by fantasy owners throughout the spring.

Santana's arm issue a reality drops fantasy value a touch

It's still early in the Johan Santana saga, but his scratched start from Friday is resulting in some speculating from the New York Times that Santana might miss his Opening Day start.
Twenty days after arriving in Florida, he has yet to face a batter.

“We talked about taking everything easy and not going crazy,” Santana said. “Jerry will make a decision on when I will pitch again, and in the meantime I’m going to get myself ready. He doesn’t want me to put myself in any situation where it gets any worse.”

“For me to go out there right now without facing any hitters would be the wrong thing to do,” Santana added. “So we have a plan where I have to throw some light B.P. like I’ve done in the past, and we’ll go from there.”

Still, he would not say for sure whether or not he would start on opening day, April 6 in Cincinnati.

“If it’s going to be me or somebody else, it’s tough to say,” he said. “But right now, on paper, I’m supposed to be the one.”

Santana, who has been throwing every other day, said that he had not had a magnetic resonance imaging exam, but that team doctors told him that his elbow tightness was related to his triceps tendon. He played down the severity, insisting that there are still five weeks until opening day.

As Manager Jerry Manuel put it Friday, the Mets are being “extra, extra, extra cautious.”
Severe or not, this issue is enough to drop Santana behind Tim Lincecum as the most attractive pitcher on fantasy draft day. Lincecum meets or exceeds Santana in every category but wins, and with Johan possibly missing time, Lincecum can beat him there, too.

Fatansy Analysis: It is Spitting Seeds' opinion that Tim Lincecum is the safer bet to have a better 2009 at this time. Santana has plenty of time to get it going this spring, but any arm troubles this early in the year are a cause of concern. Stay tuned.

Friday, February 27, 2009

White Sox have an army of arms

The White Sox are excited about the prospects of their tweaked pitching staff this season, and there's good reason for optimism. The staff features a nice blend of young and not-so-young talent, including Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Mark Buehrle, Clayton Richard, Lance Broadway Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon.
...with five weeks remaining in spring training and plenty of candidates, Cooper has plenty of options for what likely will be a 12-man pitching staff.

There's a groundswell of optimism that Contreras and Colon, who will complete their throwing programs Friday, will be ready to make their first regular-season starts April 10-11 against the Twins.

In fact, manager Ozzie Guillen said Contreras and Colon won't have any restrictions placed on them once they join the rotation. Cooper also has ruled out opting for a six-man rotation to start the season even though the Sox successfully preserved Buehrle's left arm last year by giving him extra rest in April.

"We're looking to leave [spring training] with the guys we feel can win ballgames, and they have a track record, they have an edge," Cooper said Thursday. "Heck, one is a Cy Young Award winner [Colon], and the other is a World Series playoff hero [Contreras]. If they're throwing well, they're going to be in there. If not, we have some other guys to turn to."
While there's uncertainty regarding the timetable for return of both Colon and Contreras, the Sox can get by with a pretty decent group until one or both will be ready. It's hard to believe Baseball Prospectus projected this team to be last in the American League Central. I have a hard time picking them behind Kansas City. Chicago has both good pitching depth and a solid lineup.

Carpenter goes Saturday

The top pitcher to follow Saturday in a spring training game is Cardinals hurler Chris Carpenter, who attempts to prove he's on the road to making the team's rotation.
The Cardinals concede Carpenter's recovery from nerve transposition and an unrelated season-ending nerve condition is the camp's No. 1 concern. Carpenter would prefer the attention go elsewhere.

"Like I've said all along, everybody else is making a bigger deal out of it — understandably," Carpenter said.

Carpenter will face Washington at Roger Dean Stadium and be limited to 40-45 pitches. Manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan will fixate more on Carpenter's mechanics and recovery than any instant statistical gratification.

"I know with the way that I feel that I'm not too concerned about it," Carpenter said. "I feel good. I feel strong."
He's the Cardinals number one priority in terms of monitoring progress this spring, and he should be a top priority to follow for every fantasy owner. Carpenter's draft position could slide wildly to either end of the spectrum because of a productive or unproductive performances through the end of March. Watch him closely every time out. He's probably capable of returning to his ace status. Then again, with all the injury problems over the past two years, he's also capable of becoming Mark Prior.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Maine on the mend

While most teams get set to play their first exhibition games today, the Mets got good news from a scrimmage on Tuesday: John Maine is pitching pain-free.
"My arm feels great. My body feels great," said Maine, who went 10-8 with a 4.18 ERA last season. "I just feel like it's been such a long time. The mechanics are a little off and I was rusty a little bit, but other than that, and more importantly, my arm feels good."
Fantasy Impact: A healthy Maine can be the difference for New York this year. Without him down the stretch the Mets struggled and so did some fantasy teams. When healthy, Maine is a solid second or third option in a fantasy rotation, capable of producing wins and strikeouts.

Boof goes poof

Scratch Boof Bonser's name from the starting lineup, and perhaps even from the Twins' setup role this season. He's undergoing shoulder surgery and could be out months.
The decision to have surgery comes after Bonser had two MRI exams and a cortisone shot since the end of last season. The exams showed no structural damage, and the cortisone shot, given a few days before Bonser reported to camp, yielded minimal results.

The surgery will be performed by Tampa Bay Rays team physician Dr. Koco Eaton in St. Petersburg.

"They're going to go in and clean up," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "They know that there's a little small spur that's part of the problem. ... There's no timetable right now because first you have to see exactly what happens in the surgery and what else they find. They'll check everything out as they go through it, in a scope fashion."
Bonser's already damaged fantasy value just hit the floor. What happened to this high-end prospect?

San Jose A's?

The San Jose Mercury News believes the "San Jose Athletics" has a nice ring to it. Now that the A's Fremont move has fallen through, the team will restart it process to find a place for a new stadium.
Does MLB want to have two strong and healthy franchises in the Bay Area — or will it continue forcing one team to play in an outdated, mutated multi-purpose stadium in the wrong area code?

I realize that's not how the fundamental question about the A's future is usually framed. Instead, it goes this way: Will the Giants allow the A's to build a ballpark in Santa Clara County, where the Giants own territorial rights?

Wrong. As I have noted, those "territorial rights" do

not "belong" to the Giants. Those "rights" are the property of Major League Baseball, which permits the Giants to claim them. But the "rights" can be overturned with one swift vote by MLB owners.
I think the "territorial rights" argument will be a tough sell: see Orioles/Peter Angelos vs. proposed Washington Nationals. It's a complicated process, however, moving the A's. This will probably play out a while.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Tampa at the brink

According to Tampa Bay principal owner Stuart Sternberg, the Rays pushed their payroll to the absolute limit this offseason in fine-tuning the 2009 roster.
"We, quite frankly, can't really afford what we've got on the field this year. But at least we were able to spend the money on a lot of value, we think, and pieces that will give us the opportunity to grow the franchise over the long haul and give us the best opportunity for success this year."

The number of season tickets sold and the Rays' attendance as a whole this season could impact the ultimate decision on that front.

Sternberg said season-ticket sales are up from last year (single-game tickets go on sale this week), but the Rays expect only one major-league team - the Marlins - to sell fewer season tickets this season.
The Marlins happen to be the only team to also underspend the Rays on their roster last year. Tampa spent $43,820,597 on personnel in 2008. Florida's players cost $21,811,500.

Making just one major signing in Pat Burrell this offseason, the Rays will have to hope the Yankees and Red Sox aren't that improved. If the World Series runner up struggles to get competitive in ticket sales and payroll, how long can they stay at the top? Tampa's relative youth would seem to offset any precipitous downfall, but downward trends are certainly more likely the harder it is to compete financially.

Prospecting the prospects

Baseball America's top 100 prospects list is out, and I'm a bit surprised that Matt Wieters headlines the group in front of David Price. Price is my pick to make the biggest impact in his career and this year in terms of the top 20 players in the list.

I'm expecting Price, Wieters, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin and Trevor Cahill to make an impact this year at the Major League level. Alicides Escobar is my dark horse for service time, especially if Ricky Weeks falters for the Brewers at second base.

WBC - We Barely Care

World Baseball Classic rosters came out today. I'm finding it hard to care. My only real interest in the games are that players like Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy do not get injured for fantasy baseball purposes. Call me jaded, but when rosters are hodgepodge consortia of stars and no-names there's no real interest. We're not watching the best of the best, the pitchers haven't had a chance to settle into spring ball and there's no connection to these games except that it's baseball on television.

I'll be watching, so I know whom not to draft when they end up getting injured.

All we have to Fear is Fehr

Donald Fehr says the "steroid problem" has been fixed?
"Everybody understands that there were things which happened in the early part of the decade, which we wish hadn't, that that's not the case anymore," Fehr said Monday at the Florida Marlins' camp in Jupiter, Fla., the first stop on his annual tour of spring training sites.

"We fixed the problem and we need to look forward, as (commissioner) Bud (Selig) has said many times.

"So far as I know, there is not a hint or suggestion that there is anything inappropriate or that it's not functioning right or that it isn't doing the job in 2005, '06, '07 or '08," Fehr added. "And somehow that gets lost in what I can basically call the sensationalism around what happened five years ago."
As long as the chemists want money and the designer drugs stay ahead of the tests, a number of players will be doing steroids. We'll probably only catch their usage when newer tests become available.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Samardzija might start

Moments after his value plummeted following comments by Lou Piniella on WGN news tonight that he wouldn't be in the closer competition, Jeff Samardzija rebounded with this report in the Chicago Tribune. Samardzija is getting the first stab at the Cubs' open fifth starter spot.
All I ever ask for is an opportunity to make it happen on the field," Samardzija said. "You can talk about what you want to do or what your plans are as much as you want. But until you go out and physically prove your point, it's all just talk."

Sean Marshall will start the second game against Milwaukee, with Ted Lilly slated to go in Game 3 against Texas. They're scheduled to work two innings apiece.
Fantasy Impact: This is just an opportunity and should be monitored through the spring. If Samardzija loses the starting spot to someone like Marshall, he might not have any value at all. There's a chance he would start the season in Triple-A if the Cubs feel more seasoning is needed before he starts at the big league level. If that happens, Marshall or whomever inherits the number five spot earns value for at least the first month or two of the season.

Murphy's job in left for Mets

Daniel Murphy is the Mets starter in left field, according to manager Jerry Manuel. Murphy was expected to platoon with Fernando Tatis, but instead Tatis will likely share time with Ryan Church in right field.
"I don't want him to get into a strictly platoon situation," Manuel said. "I think he's a little better player than that. Also, with Church being a lefthanded hitter, I kind of see Murphy being a better hitter right now at this time, so Tatis could go that way [in rightfield]. It all depends on how well they're doing. If they're not getting hits, they're not going to play. Development or whatever, they've got to perform."

That's the one caveat with Murphy: He's only 23 and essentially was promoted straight from Double-A Binghamton last season. Murphy played one game at Triple-A New Orleans before he joined the Mets in Houston and started that same night against the Astros at Minute Maid Park.
This smacks of taking pressure off a young man the Mets would like to see succeed. Or does it put more pressure on Murphy? Either way, the Mets want him to win the job, but if he doesn't, this could be a three-way platoon with Tatis switching from left to right on a given day.

Lugo vs. Lowrie begins

Does Julio Lugo become this year's Coco Crisp for the Boston Red Sox? A veteran player talented enough to play every day, but who can't do enough to keep a youngster out of the lineup? Last year Jacoby Ellsbury nudged Crisp into a utility role. Now Jed Lowrie is poised to bounce Lugo from the lineup.
A quadriceps injury ended Lugo's season July 11, although he said he could have played if Boston reached the World Series. He batted .263 with one homer and 22 RBIs after hitting .237 with eight homers and 73 RBIs in his first season with the Red Sox.

"This is a big spring for Julio," Francona said. "He feels like he has a lot to prove."

The 33-year-old Lugo could win the job or enhance his trade value with a solid spring. He heard rumours during the off-season about being dealt for Detroit pitcher Dontrelle Willis, who missed most of last season with a knee injury.

"This is a business," said Lugo, playing with his fourth team since reaching the majors with Houston in 2000. "You want to be where people want you. That's it. If I don't get traded it's because (the Red Sox) want me."

Lowrie has more experience at the other infield spots so might be a better fit as the utility player. He could spell AL MVP Pedroia at second base and Mike Lowell, recovering from off-season hip surgery, at third.
At 25, Lowrie isn't exactly the face of youth, but he's still got growth potential and put up halfway decent numbers on his way up the ladder. He can probably outperform Lugo in every offensive category except for steals.

Fantasy Impact: Something tells me Boston doesn't trust either one of these two. They trusted Ellsbury. That's why Lugo was jettisoned in the offseason. Lowrie and Lugo were both brought back, and my guess is they share time at second. Lugo will get more time, Lowrie will play more of that dreaded utility role. Leave them alone, unless you're dying for Lugo's wheels.

Oh, Odalis

Odalis Perez is getting himself into trouble over what is now a contract holdout with the Nationals.
Perez has expressed his dissatisfaction with his contract since he gave his agent the OK to sign a non-guaranteed minor league deal with Washington on Feb. 5 that would pay him $850,000 if he makes the team, the same stipulation he faced last year.

General manager Jim Bowden hasn't yet spoken with Perez, and doesn't know if he'll show.

"He's not returned my calls, he's not returned (manager) Manny's (Acta) calls and he hasn't returned his agent's calls, so we're waiting to hear back from him," Bowden said. "We're looking at all of our options. We're taking the position that we have an agreement with the player and we're expecting the player to honor the agreement. But we'd like to talk to him first, so we're going to wait until he calls us back and then address the other options at that point."
I'm surprised to learn Perez doesn't make millions considering he's been in the league for a number of years now as a starting pitcher.

Fantasy Impact: Perez is a low-end fantasy option, and the longer he's out, the less of an option he becomes. He's good for a win or two, or maybe some innings eating, if he gets a very favorable matchup.

Teahen at second

This article is mostly about Ryan Shealy and Ross Gload, who are competing for mere roster spots with the Royals at this time. More interesting, however, is where Mark Teahen was playing.
The two starting intrasquad lineups each included two designated hitters in a 10-player format:

CF Coco Crisp, SS Mike Aviles, LF David DeJesus, DH Ross Gload, 1B Billy Butler, C John Buck, 2B Willie Bloomquist, 3B Esteban German, RF Derrick Robinson and DH John Suomi.

CF Mitch Maier, SS Tony Peña, 1B Mike Jacobs, DH Ryan Shealy, 3B Alex Gordon, C Miguel Olivo, 2B Mark Teahen, DH Alberto Callaspo, LF Chris Lubanski and RF José Duarte.
Rumored to play some at second base this year, Teahen owners in deeper keeper formats may want to pay attention.

Fantasy Impact: Teahen's been more of an afterthought in recent fantasy seasons. If he was in your starting lineup, you were likely looking for a better alternative. With this look at second, his fantasy value becomes intriguing. Teahen at second is much more valuable than Teahen in the outfield or at the corner. He'd become an instant rival for Orlando Hudson in terms of one of the higher end options at the position.

Crawford clawing back

Rays left fielder Carl Crawford, who was hampered by a hamstring injury last season, is apparently back to full health again. Crawford is expecting bigger things in 2009.
''I changed my offseason workouts and focused on the hamstring,'' Crawford said. ``I still worked out, I just addressed the hamstring more than in the past.''

Instead of going to Phoenix where he always did his offseason regimen, Crawford stayed at home in Houston, ran on grass instead of artificial turf to aid his hamstring and worked out with a local Houston trainer.

The hope is to play in more games and bring the numbers back to normal. Last season was the first time Crawford's batting average dipped. He had hit over .300 for three consecutive seasons before batting .273 last year. The hamstring issues cost him on the bases, too. Crawford stole only 25 bases last season.

He averaged 51 steals over the previous five seasons, and in 2007 he became just the eighth player in history to reach 250 stolen bases and 1,000 hits before his 27th birthday. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said he believed Crawford was even more focused and ready for a big year.
Crawford could get turned loose this season as the Rays need to max out in order to win the improved AL East.

Fantasy Impact: Crawford typically went in the second round of most fantasy drafts, but not this year. I saw him slide to he fourth or fifth round in some mock drafts after his subpar season. I think the former is too early for his abilities, and the latter is too low. Crawford is a solid late third or early fourth round pick. He'll deliver in at least three categories, and with an improved team around him for a full season, he could mark consistently in four.

Willis working his way back

When talking about potential American League Comeback Players of the Year, look no further than Dontrelle Willis, who is back to his usual smiling self in Tigers camp. Jim Leyland thinks his veteran lefty could be back on track, potentially for a shot at the team's fifth starter spot.
For Willis, Saturday marked the beginning of the beginning, the revving of the engine before the qualifying heats. The exhibition season opens Wednesday.

Leyland said of Willis' work Saturday: "It's probably the best I've seen him since we acquired him. His delivery was good. He was around the plate. He had some depth to his breaking ball. We'll see how that translates when other guys (opposing teams) start showing up."

Willis' windup looked more compact and fluid Saturday than it did last season. "I accomplished what I wanted to ... today," said Willis. "You live for today." He said more than once that he has punted last season from his mind.
Willis has had two outstanding seasons in his career, his rookie campaign of 2003 and his third season in which he won 22 games. There's every expectation that he can regain his form.

Fantasy Impact: Draft him. Seriously. He's only 27, he's bouncing back from the first major setback of his career, and if he feels right, he's Cy Young potential. Willis will be off some people's draft radar, so watch him slide into the later rounds, then draft him before he's gone. He could be a difference-maker in 2009.

More steals, sure, but we need even more from Taveras

Willie Taveras stole 68 bases in 75 attempts last season, double his career high. Now he's looking to do even more.
"I think with a .350 on-base I can steal 100 bases," he said.

The last player to steal 100 bases in a season was Vince Coleman, who took 109 for St. Louis in 1987.

"It can happen," Reds manager Dusty Baker said of Taveras. "He's hard to throw out. He studies. I'm beginning to realize he's smarter than a lot of people give him credit for, which is how I think he likes it. Sometimes, it's better if people don't think you're smart."

But, again, getting to first base is the first step.

"He's got to get on base a lot more than he has before," Baker said.

Taveras doesn't help himself with walks. In 2007, when he missed time with a quad strain, Taveras walked 21 times in 408 plate appearances. Last year, he walked 36 times in 531.

"I think, to be honest with you, I was very consistent in 2007," he said. "I hit the ball more solid. I was in and out of the lineup a lot of times last year. Sometimes, you work hard and you still struggle. It's a new year. (Last year's) in the past."
Taveras isn't a keeper in most leagues, so look for his value to go up if this story gets a little bit more publicity. He's almost a lock to steal 50 bases, which could lead the league in an average season.

Fantasy Impact: Be careful in your draft with this info. I don't believe a base stealer like Taveras makes enough of a diffence in any other category to be more than a middle-tier selection. You can get stolen bases elsewhere, if needed. You don't need the top dog to win the hunt.