***Updated: 3/8/10 @ 9:41 AM CST******ON HIATUS THRU MARCH 22ND; PLEASE CHECK BACK ON MARCH 23RD***Analyzing the top fantasy closer options heading into spring 2010. Each pitcher's age he'll turn during the 2010 season is listed next to his name. Stats that follow include his 2009 season vitals and three-year averages:
For 2010 MLB closer depth chart updates, click here.1. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (26)2009: 2.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 36 SV
3-YR: 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 17 SV
***Broxton earned full-time closer duties for the first time in his career in 2009. He strikes more batters than any other relief ace, but sometimes that comes at the cost of a high pitch count. That also seems to be the only thing that can slow him down. Broxton pitches for a good Dodgers team that should earn him plenty of save chances.
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (35)2009: 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 47 SV
3-YR: 1.77 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 41 SV
***Nathan pitched part of the 2009 season not feeling at top form and still produced arguably the best season of any closer in baseball. His 47 saves were second only to Brian Fuentes' 48. Nathan had bone chips removed from his elbow in October, and he was removed from his first outing this spring with elbow soreness. We're not willing to write him off until further news breaks, but Nathan may become one of the enigmas of the 2010 season; he's good enough to be the second-best closer in baseball, but his injury situation may derail his season.
3. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (29)2009: 1.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 38 SV
***Papelbon's season was a tale of two halves. He walked 18 batters and gave up four home runs before the all-star break, then bounced back with just six walks and one homer allowed the rest of the way. He tinkered with his delivery and approach last offseason, so getting used to the changes may have taken their toll early on. In the end, Papelbon remains a relief ace. His 1.84 career ERA speaks to his continuing dominance late in games.
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (40)2009: 1.76 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 44 SV
3-YR: 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 37 SV
***Rivera actually bettered his three-year averages at the age of 39 and posted his best ERA since 2005. He's got to slow down at some point, and he started slowly in 2009. Then he posted better numbers than anyone at the closing position. Pitching for a sure-fire winner this season keeps him near the top of the closer heap.
5. Heath Bell, SD (33)2009: 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 42 SV
3-YR: 2.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 14 SV
***Bell saved 42 games for a Padres team that won just 75 times. The longtime understudy to Trevor Hoffman finally stepped into the closer role and continued to post strong numbers that were a general improvement on his career marks. He had some tough times with the Yankees earlier in his career but no clunker seasons since arriving in San Diego three years ago.
6. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (28)2009: 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 35 SV
3-YR: 2.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 45 SV
***Last season, K-Rod seemed far removed from his record-setting 2008. Rodriguez actually pitched well in his new home, but it was his road troubles (5.52 ERA away from Citi Field) that turned in a mediocre statline. His 6.75 ERA after the all-star break speaks to wearing down at the end of the year and could be a result of averaging 73-plus innings over the last seven seasons. Expect improved numbers from the 28-year-old in 2010, but don't assume he'll ascend to past success.
7. Huston Street, COL (27)2009: 3.06 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 35 SV
3-YR: 3.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 23 SV
***He trends hot and cold, which can be devastating for fantasy owners, but when he's good (which is more often than not), Huston Street is a legitimate No. 1 fantasy baseball closer. After losing his closer role in April, Street regained form and saved 35 games. He's on a Rockies team expected to contend in 2010, an he can dominate when in form, posting WHIP averages of 0.91 over the past three seasons.
8. Brian Wilson, SF (28)2009: 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 3.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 28 SV
***Wilson led full-time closers with seven blown saves last year, but that was the lone blemish on an otherwise outstanding seasons. He improved dramatically in his second full season as Giants closer, giving up ten fewer runs in ten more innings than he did in 2008.
9. Jose Valverde, DET (32)2009: 2.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 25 SV
3-YR: 2.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 39 SV
***Valverde battled injuries and a bad baseball team to put together a stat-strong season outside of his 25 total saves. Now that he's in Detroit pitching for a contender, expect Valverde to turn in his usual productive year. He posted save totals of 47 and 44 before last year's so-so mark. We'll expect him to approach 40 in 2010.
10. David Aardsma, SEA (28)2009: 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 4.31 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 13 SV
***After starting his year behind Brandon Morrow for the Seattle closer role, Aardsma eventually took over and put together easily the best season of his career. The former first-round pick finally made good on his promise, and he could've topped 40 saves with ease had he opened the year as Seattle's stopper. Because he's only put it all together this one time, we'd like to see him do it again before we consider him a sure-fire No. 1 closer. Until then, he's on the edge of the top group.
11. Joakim Soria, KC (26)2009: 2.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11.7 WHIP, 30 SV
3-YR: 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.0 WHIP, 30 SV
***Prognosticators don't particularly like Soria's fantasy outlook because he pitches for the perennially last-place Royals, but that's not our opinion. Two years ago Soria saved 42 games for Kansas City, and the only thing that stopped him from approaching 40 saves again was time spent on the disabled list. His shoulder woes of a year ago were a concern, but he bounced back nicely with 69 strikeouts in 53 innings. His dominant stuff puts him right at the edge of the No. 1 closer group, and a better team would make him an injury-risk top-six or -eight closer. Only pass him up if there's further concern about his arm this spring.
12. Francisco Cordero, CIN (35)2009: 2.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 39 SV
3-YR: 2.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 39 SV
***Reliability is perhaps Cordero's greatest strength. Over the past three seasons, you knew exactly what you were getting. A good ERA, a mediocre WHIP, enough Ks and a solid average of 39 saves. He's not an elite closing option, but he's good enough to demand a spot as a low-end No. 1 closer. With his age creeping up, we'll look for cracks in the foundation or younger emerging stars to pass him by, but he's held them off to this point.
13. Andrew Bailey, OAK (26)2009: 1.84 ERA, 0.876 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 26 SV
3-YR: N/A
***Bailey began the year as the A's third option at closer and wound up winning AL rookie of the year as the team's relief ace. He saved 26 saves and produced stunning ERA and WHIP numbers that will have fantasy owners reaching a little to grab him earlier than he should be valued in year two. Bailey posted an ERA of 3.50 as mostly a starter in the minors while his strikeout rate actually improved at the MLB level. We like him as an outside shot as a No. 1 closer, but really no better than that. If he was on a contender, Bailey would have to jump up into that top tier.
14. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (42)2009: 1.83 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 37 SV
3-YR: 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 36 SV
***No longer the power closer he once was, Hoffman's best seasons are likely behind him, especially now that 2009 is in the rear-view mirror. At age 41, Hoffman turned in an All-Star performance by closing 37 of his 41 save chances. It's hard to believe he can keep it up for much longer, but there's really no reason to doubt his ability after last season. Hoffman is no worse than a high-end No. 2 closer, but he can finish with near-elite status on a decent Brewers team.
15. Billy Wagner, ATL (38)2009: 1.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, 0 SV
3-YR: 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 20 SV
***Write sleeper all over Wagner in 2010. He's a dominant career relief ace who is back from injury, and last season he proved dominant in a setup role for the Red Sox down the stretch. Now with the Braves, he's not on a particularly good baseball team, so his chances may be a bit limited for saves. He's also not expected to pitch on back-to-back days, further limiting saves chances. All things considered, we'd rather bet on Wagner than bet against him. His body of work is nothing short of hall of fame, and he should be a consistently good pitcher even if he can't make it past 30 saves in 2010. We list him as 15th on our closer list, but he can slide up into the top 10 or 12 easily.
16. Brian Fuentes, LAA (35)2009: 3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 48 SV
3-YR: 3.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 32 SV
***Fuentes managed an anomaly of a season, posting a league-high 48 saves with one of the more mediocre closer statlines in baseball. His 7.5 K/9 and 1.40 WHIP expose his inability to dominate, but to his credit he still got the job done for the Angels. Fuentes was largely unchallenged in Anaheim last year thanks to injuries decimating the bullpen. Now he'll have to fend off the likes of Scot Shields and dare we say Fernando Rodney. He's still the man, but if he coughs up a few more saves in 2010, there will be less leeway than last year.
17. Rafael Soriano, TB (30)2009: 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 27 SV
3-YR: 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 13 SV
***Tampa tried nine different pitchers in save situations in 2009, but Soriano figures to get the lion's share this year. He has the stuff to dominate, as evidenced by his impressively low WHIP and high K/9 numbers in 2009. Soriano has battled injuries and some inconsistency in his career, but if he puts it together, he's immediately an elite saves option. Tampa manager Joe Maddon has a track record of trying to find the right matchups for his relievers, so lefty J.P. Howell may take a a couple of handfuls of opportunities away from Soriano, but he's the man moving forward.
18. Frank Francisco (31)2009: 3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 25 SV
3-YR: 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 10 SV
***One of the game's exciting arms is still a bit of a fantasy baseball enigma. Francisco can dominate, but he is prone to struggle at times. He can rattled off a string of saves last season, but he also broke down with injuries. More often than not, he is brilliant. Francisco won the Rangers closer job last season, holding off a decent candidate in C.J. Wilson, and it appears the job is safely his in 2010. Wilson still lurks (if he doesn't make the rotation), as does youngster Neftali Feliz. Francisco can be one of the game's best closers if he can put together a full season.
19. Ryan Franklin, STL (37)2009: 1.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 38 SV
3-YR: 2.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.7 k/9, 19 SV
***In his first full fantasy-ownership-worthy season since he was a starter back in 2003 with Seattle, Franklin put up the best season of his career for five months. Then the wheels fell off in September. Franklin does pitch for a contender in St. Louis, but he doesn't fill out the statline like your typical stopper. He's 37 on opening day, and that means he possesses almost no upside. We'll call 2009 a career year and expect his numbers to slip in 2010.
20. Carlos Marmol, CHC (27)2009: 3.41 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 15 SV
3-YR: 2.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 8 SV
***Marmol is a maddening talent capable of dominating like few other relievers in baseball while simultaneously shooting himself in the foot. He strikes out well over 11 batters per inning for his MLB career, but he hit 12 batters in 2009 and walked almost eight per nine innings. That's not closer material, and yet Marmol wrestled the job away from Kevin Gregg last year and enters 2010 the Cubs' clear-cut favorite to take the reigns. On the positive side, he's never been as wild as he was last season. On the negative, he's going to get himself and potentially your fantasy team in trouble.
21. Bobby Jenks, CHW (29)2009: 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 29 SV
3-YR: 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 33 SV
***This is one of the more difficult projections heading into the 2010 season. Jenks posted the worst save total of his four-year run as White Sox stopper, but he actually improved his strikeout numbers (8.3 K/9 in 2009 vs. 5.5 K/9 in 2008). He's no fantasy ace, and while he remained a No. 2 closer for most of last season, he's no lock to remain the Sox closer this season with people like J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton breathing down his neck. Ozzie Guillen seems to like Jenks, though, and the big man dropped some weight and stopped drinking in the offseason. He's in pretty good shape going into 2010 and still one of the game's top 20 closers.
22. Chad Qualls, ARZ (31)2009: 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 24 SV
3-YR: 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 13 SV
***Possessing the makeup to close, Qualls finally got his shot in 2009. His seems had it's ups and downs, but the only thing stopping Qualls from approaching 30 saves was a dislocated kneecap with a handful of weeks to go in the season. He's on schedule to start the year as Diamondbacks closer, but Juan Gutierrez might push him a little for the job. We expect Qualls to earn the position out of spring training, but there's no reason for the contract player not to be trade bait come the July 31st deadline. Gutierrez might get his chances again late in the year.
23. Leo Nunez, FLA (26)2009: 4.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 26 SV
3-YR: 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 9 SV
***Nunez inherited the Marlins closer job midway through 2009 and did a decent-enough job to hold the position the remainder of the year. He's not overpowering, but he has good stuff. He enters the year as the Marlins full-time closer with room for improvement. He's worth drafting as a third closer or potentially a low-end No. 2.
24. Brad Lidge, PHI (33)2009: 7.21 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 31 SV
3-YR: 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 30 SV
***Lidge is as good as it gets when he's right, and he's incredibly awful when he's wrong. Last year, he was all wrong. Whether he fought injuries or simply struggled doesn't matter, a 7.21 ERA and 1.81 WHIP certainly cost the Phillies and numerous fantasy franchises. He can bounce back with elite numbers, but now at the age of 33, you have to expect Lidge's best days (which were dominant) to be well behind him. We're looking for something along the line of his three-year average in terms of a projection for this year. Anything worse and he could lose his job.
Garnering consideration:
Kerry Wood
Mike Gonzalez
Matt Capps
Jason Frasor
Octavio Dotel
Brandon Lyon
Matt Lindstrom
J.P. Howell
Jim Johnson
C.J. Wilson
Kevin Gregg
Juan Gutierrez
Ryan Madson
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