Sunday, March 8, 2009

Dominican Republic sends Panama packing

The Dominican Republic rebounded from an embarrassing loss to The Netherlands, shutting out Panama, 9-0. Panama is the first team from Pool D to be eliminated. Miguel Olivo powered out two home runs while Nelson Cruz added a third.

And what is it about Johnny Cueto in the month of March? Inferior competition? Cueto worked 4 2/3 innings, striking out five to pick up the win. He allowed three hits and walked one. The Reds would like to see more of that in the regular season.

The Mexican Coors Field

Cuba is taking on South Africa at Foro Sol in Mexico City. The stadium is 7,345 feet about sea level. That's over 2,000 feet higher than the thin-aired Coors Field in Denver. The stadium features fences at 417 to center, 326 down the line to left and 333 down the line to right. That makes it two feet deeper to straightaway center, but much shorter to the gaps and corners than Coors.

You can imagine how the ball might carry at Foro Sol, and it has already. Frederich Cepeda hit an opposite field home run in the first inning to give Cuba a 1-0 lead.

Update (1:48 pm CST): The rare air is proving to be a problem for South African starter Barry Armitage. Frederich Cepeda lifted a two-run, opposite-field home run to right in the second inning. It's 3-0 Cuba.

Update (2:01 pm CST: Cepeda just homered again. This one was a no-doubter. It was a pull shot to right that didn't need the help of thin air. 5-0 Cuba in the third.

Update (2:33 pm CST: Hector Olivera homers the opposite way to right to lead off the Cuban half of the 5th. Another home run potentially aided by altitude. 6-0 Cuba.

Update (6:44 pm CST: The Cubans end up with six home runs, although South Africa did get on the board in the ninth. Cuba wins, 8-1.

South Korea advances from Pool A

After a 14-2 whipping by Japan, South Korea bounced back with a 14-0 shutout of China to advance to round two of the World Baseball Classic. The Koreans join Japan to repeat their respective advancement from 2006. That year Japan won the classic, eliminating South Korea in the semifinals.

South Korea and Japan now battle each other to determine seeding for the second round.

A-Rod opts for surgery

Alex Rodriguez has decided on immediate hip surgery. He's going to miss at least the rest of spring training at the first month of the regular season.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, hip specialist Marc Philippon and team physician Chris Ahmad made the announcement in a conference call.

"The goal here is to allow Alex to rehab rapidly in a safe manner," Philippon said, "by just going in arthroscopically, repairing his labrum and part of the impingement."

After the year, Philippon plans to do a more complete surgery that could require up to four months of rehabilitation. Rodriguez's labrum tear is technically described as a femoroacteabular impingement (FAI), which involves too much friction in the hip joint. He has two types of impingement, "pincer" and "cam," and Philippon will only repair the pincer impingement on Monday.

Philippon said he is confident "in the 85-to-90 percent level" that Rodriguez will be able to get through the season healthy after this surgery. Philippon, the Yankees and Rodriguez all feel that this intermediate approach will keep both their short-term and long-term interests intact. Rodriguez is entering the second season of a 10-year, $275-million contract, so the Yankees want him healthy not only this year but for the eight following seasons.
A-Rod would have to undergo a more invasive surgery after the baseball season to fully repair the torn labrum in his right hip.

Fantasy Analysis: Expect A-Rod's numbers to drop at least a sixth this season and perhaps more. There's not guarantee that he'll come back at optimum form, and there's still the outside chance that he misses even more time. Consider A-Rod an injury-risk third baseman capable of hitting around .300 and 30 home runs. He's most likely a third round pick at this point.

Who is Mike Johnson?

If you were wondering who the heck Canada's Mike Johnson was and why he was starting against a powerful Team USA, here's the answer. Johnson not only pitched in the major leagues, he had an impressive year in China.
The 33-year-old right-hander from Edmonton, who last pitched in the majors as a member of the 2001 Montreal Expos, was considering calling it a career before last season as he continued to struggle coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2005.

But Johnson decided to give it one last shot when the La New Bears of Taiwan called. Then, "for some reason, my arm just kind of went over a hump," he recalled yesterday.

Johnson went 20-2 with a 2.45 ERA and won the Chinese Professional Baseball League MVP.
Johnson looked like the right choice when he struck out Chipper Jones and David Wright to end the first, but he eventually faltered giving up two home runs and four runs in four innings. In the end, he earned the loss, 6-5.

All of Trader Jim's deals

Nationals GM Jim Bowden resigned on March 1, leaving his position vacant as Washington closes in on the 2009 season. His shoes will be big to fill. MLB Trade Rumors says "Trader Jim" made 168 deals during him time as a GM with both Cincinnati and Washington. That's a lot of activity from one GM.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Rapidly aging Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero is one year older than previously thought. He's 34, not 33.
In a morning interview session with reporters, Scioscia said Guerrero's October surgery to clean out scar tissue and repair cartilage damage in his right knee could "point to a guy maybe turning back the clock a couple of years."

Relayed that quote through an interpreter, Guerrero smiled and said, "I feel good. I can't say [like] 25, because, you know, I'm 34. But I feel a lot better. That's where I'm at right now."

The Angels list Guerrero's birth date as Feb. 9, 1976, which would make him 33. Guerrero admitted to a team executive later in the day that he was born on the same date in 1975, making him 34.

The team plans to change the media guide to reflect Guerrero's correct age.

Though Guerrero, as it turns out, is one of hundreds of players from the Dominican Republic who faked their age when signing contracts with major league teams, the timing of Friday's discovery could be costly.

Guerrero, who will make $15 million this season, is in the final year of a contract, and any new extension he signs probably will be for one less year than he would have signed for, which would cost him millions.
I'm wondering if Vlad might be even older than 34.

Fantasy Impact: This revelation means Guerrero's slip in numbers last season might not be an off year as much as it could be the beginning of the end. His .521 SLG and .302 AVG were his worst since 1997. His 27 home runs matched his 2008 total, but both were also his worst since '97 when he only played a half-season. Guerrero is still a viable fantasy option, but he's no longer a second-round draft pick. If he slips to round five, however, Guerrero could be a major steal, especially if offseason knee surgery helps him bounce back.

Venezuela kings Italy

Felix Hernandez looked like the king of the hill Saturday in Toronto. The Venezuelan ace over matched Team Italy, striking out four in four innings on the way to a 7-0 victory. King Felix gave up just three base runners.

Hernandez looks like he's dropped weight. He was in solid form, and might be able to put up some gaudy fantasy numbers. He's only 23, and he's already won 39 MLB games.

Anyone think the Italians uniforms looked like the Dodgers?

Japan jumps Korea

Japan whipped Korea 14-2 to become the first team to advance from pool play in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

All five MLB players in the Japanese starting lineup contributed in the lopsided win: Ichiro recorded three hits and three runs. Kenji Johjima had three hits, two runs and two RBI. Kosuke Fukudome had a hit and a run. Akinori Iwamura scored twice on a pair of walks.

Daisuke Matsuzaka picked up the win, giving up two runs in four innings.

Puerto Rico rips Panama

Pudge Rodriguez certainly took to auditioning for a MLB job. He hit two home runs for Puerto Rico, going 4-4 in his home country's 7-0 win over Panama. Pudge contributed three runs and four RBI.

John Kruk mentioned Houston, Florida and the NY Mets as the three teams he expects to contend for Rodriguez's services behind the plate. Houston especially should give Pudge a look. Look at the bind they got into last year with the J.R. Towles experiment.

Also worth a mention: Carlos Delgado had three hits and a homer in four at bats. Delgado took a lot of heat for his inabilities early last season. Everyone said his bat looked slow and he was no longer the power hitter he once was. Then Delgado went nuts in the second half, hitting 27 home runs and driving in 80 runs in his last 84 games. He looked far from washed up.

Team USA defeates Canada

Team USA got off on the right foot with a 6-5 win over Canada, but it was a tough win. The Canadians have a nice lineup with Russell Martin, Joey Votto, Justin Morneau and Jason Bay occupying the No. 2 thru 5 slots. Votto stole the show with a 4-5 afternoon, including a home run and a ninth-inning RBI double to halve the American lead at 6-5. J.J. Putz, however, was able to get out of his own jam for the save.

The USA now plays the winner of Italy and Venezuela.

Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn and Brian McCann provided the power for Team USA, each connecting for a home run. The three bombs accounted for five of the six American runs. I don't think they're necessarily a station-to-station team, however, and the USA should be manufacture runs with probably the best lineup in the classic.

One more note on Votto. The Canadian coaching staff must be very high on him if they're willing to bat Votto ahead of Morneau and Bay in the third slot.

Dutch Treat even with Dominican dominance on the hill

Quite the shocker in the WBC. The Dominican Republic fell to the Netherlands, 3-2, despite DR pitching staff holding the Netherlands to three hits. In fact, the Dutch team struggled to make solid contact, failing to record an extra base hit. Two first-inning errors led to a three-run first from which the Dominicans never recovered.

With Randall Simon and Gene Kingsale the only Dutch players in the starting lineup with significant MLB experience, DR pitchers mostly had their way. Edinson Volquez struggled with the strike zone at times, missing the zone with 21 of his 58 pitches. He still managed three strike outs in three innings.

Pedro Martinez looked better than Volquez, zipping 32 strikes on 40 pitches. He struck out four in three innings, giving up just one hit. There was no gun available in the telecast, but here's guessing this outing turned the heads of several scouts regardless of the velocity.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Velez might get to run

With Dave Roberts released by the San Francisco Giants, a roster spot opens for one of a number of younger players. A San Francisco Chronicle writer thinks that slot has Eugenio Velez's name all over it.
This is a really good sign for Eugenio Velez, the team's most influential baserunner and a potential backup at either second base or the outfield. It now seems likely that Velez will make the team, if for no other reason than the speed he brings off the bench.
Velez still fights for time with Emmanuel Burris and Kevin Frandsen. That means his fantasy value is limited to steals until he cracks the lineup on a regular basis. Even then he might be limited to merely stolen bases.

Still don't bet on Tampa

The Tampa Bay Rays have certainly moved up in the world. Last year the Rays faced some of the longest odds in baseball in terms of winning the world series. Many sports books had the Rays between 150/1 and 200/1. This year, Bodog has Tampa at 18/1 odds.

The Yankees, at 4/1, are odds-on favorites. The Red Sox follow with 13/2 odds. That means Bodog doesn't expect Tampa to make the playoffs.

In the National League, the Cubs own the best odds at 17/2 with the Phillies coming in second at 14/1.

No naming rights, at least on these jerseys

There's no such thing as freedom of speech when it comes to buying personalized jerseys from MLB.com. There you can get A-Rod's No. 13 jersey with almost anything you like on it, but don't ask for A-Fraud. That's a no-no.
Any fan hoping to make fun of New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez can no longer get a No. 13 Yankees jersey with the word "A-Fraud" on the back.

MLB.com has banned the new A-Rod nickname from the personalization feature on replica jerseys on MLB.com. MLB.com spokesman Matt Gould told CNBC that the league does not allow fans to personalize products with anything that is deemed inappropriate, derogatory or profane.

Fans haven't been able to personalize their jerseys on the site with the word "steroids" since 2005, but as of this afternoon, fans can get A-Rod's drug of choice, "Boli," on the back of jerseys. They can also get "Sucart," the last name of A-Rod's cousin, who has been part of the story.
Here's guessing "Boli" and "Sucart" won't draw nearly the interested that A-Fraud was getting.

Requesting the Cubs

An interesting article at MinnPost.com explains how baseball scheduling is done today. I had no idea that teams make special solicitations as specific as requesting the Cubs for a home series.
It's far too late to make any radical changes to the 2009 Major League Baseball schedule. So Twins President Dave St. Peter offered two special requests to pass along to the firm that produces the 2010 sked: No road trips longer than nine games, and one interleague visit by the Cubs. "Because they do draw fans," St. Peter said.
Stunning, really. The article goes on to explain that most requests are more substantial, such as the Rockies needing to be out of Denver during last year's Democratic National Convention. Makes sense.

America or else

Tommy Lasorda gave Team USA a pep talk prior to the World Baseball Classic.
"We cannot allow those clubs to beat us. It's our game," the former Los Angeles Dodgers manager said Thursday. "Remember one thing: In your hearts, you better pull for the USA or you may not get into heaven."

"It's our game. Baseball is America's game. It doesn't belong to the Italians or the Cubans or the Koreans or the Japanese," he said. "It's our game, and we're not going to let them beat us."
Lasorda might be xenophobic when it comes to baseball, but he's willing to flip the switch for this year's world tournament despite his hostility toward everyone but the USA.
Lasorda, the Hall of Fame manager and Classic global ambassador, was there with Major League Baseball executive vice president of business Tim Brosnan and Empire State Building general manager Jim Connors for the official lighting ceremony of the Classic.

That evening, once the sun dipped below the Hudson River to the west, the Empire State Building was geared up to shine red, green, blue and yellow on each of the four sides of the building in honor of the World Baseball Classic colors.

"The colors on the building shows it's big-time," said Lasorda. "All of the country now will know about the Classic."
Yes, all of the country, indeed. Not all of the world. I'm guessing Lasorda wished that building was made up of the three primary colors. Well, his three primary colors of red, white and blue.

Fat Fausto

It's hip to have a hip problem, and Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona was well ahead of the trend with last year's hobbler which caused him to miss two months. It's not the hip, however, that was the concern when Cleveland opened spring training.
Fausto Carmona said he did report to spring training overweight, but is in better condition now.

"I've lost a few pounds," said Carmona, dripping sweat after his postgame sprints Wednesday. "I'm feeling much better."

Carmona, listed at 6-4 and 230 pounds, threw two scoreless innings Wednesday in the Tribe's 5-4 exhibition victory over the Cubs.

"Mentally, I've been just trying to throw the ball to the middle of the plate and not try to do too much," said Carmona, who walked 70 and struck out 58 last year.
If Carmona isn't keeping his weight in check, his stats could continue to take that hip check they suffered last year.

Fantasy Analysis: Two years ago, Carmona was hip as a fantasy staff ace. He won 19 games, and he finished fourth in Cy Young voting. His numbers, however, did not overwhelm. He gives up a high number of base runners for a top-tier pitcher, and he doesn't strike people out. At best, Carmona is a three-category starter in a five-category league, and that's if he can keep that WHIP down. He's no better than a middle-round option at this point.

Skipping on Schumaker

The Cardinals' "Schumaker at second" project continues with the pint-sized outfielder adjusting to his assignment in the pivot.
Schumaker misplayed a couple of routine choppers Sunday, suffering the first setback in his transition from outfield back to infield.

“Those ground balls the other day are outs,” Schumaker said. “Pitchers expect those balls to be out and so do I. So I have to get that down.”

On the first play, he stayed back on the ball, then rushed his catch-and-flip to get the force-out at second base. He cuffed the ball as a result.

On the second play, Schumaker backed up on a chopper -– and the last bounce ate him alive.

“Once I backed up, I was praying the ball would go into my glove,” he said after the game. “It didn’t.”
Good luck, Schu. Here's hoping for your sake things work out, but I'm not entirely certain you're the right fit for the Redbirds at second long-term. And it's not your glove I'm worried about. It's your bat.

My point about Schumaker's bat is this: last season the average Major Leaguer hit .260 with a slugging percentage of .413. That means a player's isolated slugging percentage was 153 points higher than his batting average. Schumaker's ISOSLG was just 104 points above his batting average (.406-.302=.104). He gets slap hits, but a .300 hitter without pop has a lot less impact on a game than a guy who hits .280 with average power.

Neither Adam Kennedy (.092 SLG) nor Aaron Miles (.081 ISOSLG) were better options than Schumaker bat-wise at second for St. Louis. That said, Schumaker offers very little pop, and his lack of base stealing and less-than-ideal OBA for hitting leadoff (.359) make him expendable down the road.

In fact, all of these second baseman put up better "pop" numbers than Schumaker last season (ISOSLG):

Mike Fontenot, CHC (.167)
Ricky Weeks, MIL (.161)
Kaz Matsui, HOU (.134)

That's just the NL Central. Freddie Sanchez, PIT (.100) was the only 2B in the Central with less pop than Schu last year, but his career ISOSLG is .117. Schumaker's minor league ISOSLG is only .095.

That said, the Cardinals must be considering Schumaker their best option right now at second base but not necessarily for the future, and certainly not considering he is already 29. You can find players much younger than Schu who have more upside. I like Skip, but not enough to bank on him long-term.

Nasty Boys part II?

All three of the Cardinals closing candidates -- Chris Perez, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin -- looked good against the Dominican Republic today.
Veteran Ryan Franklin, dazzling in his first outing, retired all six men he faced. Young Chris Perez, who had struggled in his first two outings, had a perfect inning; Josh Kinney, who had walked four hitters in two previous innings, didn't walk anybody and Jason Motte worked his third straight scoreless inning.
That has me wondering: might the Cardinals end up going with a three-man closer like the Cincinnati Reds of yesteryear? I'm not saying Perez / Motte / Franklin will ever be as talented as Randy Myers / Rob Dibble / Norm Charlton, but maybe it's time to bring back the three-headed committee approach.

Now that I look at it, Charlton wasn't much of a closer. Myers did most of the work for the 1990 Reds while Dibble closed out more games in 1991. Tim Layana equaled Charlton with two saves in '90! Ted Power had the third most for Cincy in '91 with three. What a bullpen!