Rapidly aging Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero is one year older than previously thought. He's 34, not 33.

In a morning interview session with reporters, Scioscia said Guerrero's October surgery to clean out scar tissue and repair cartilage damage in his right knee could "point to a guy maybe turning back the clock a couple of years."

Relayed that quote through an interpreter, Guerrero smiled and said, "I feel good. I can't say [like] 25, because, you know, I'm 34. But I feel a lot better. That's where I'm at right now."

The Angels list Guerrero's birth date as Feb. 9, 1976, which would make him 33. Guerrero admitted to a team executive later in the day that he was born on the same date in 1975, making him 34.

The team plans to change the media guide to reflect Guerrero's correct age.

Though Guerrero, as it turns out, is one of hundreds of players from the Dominican Republic who faked their age when signing contracts with major league teams, the timing of Friday's discovery could be costly.

Guerrero, who will make $15 million this season, is in the final year of a contract, and any new extension he signs probably will be for one less year than he would have signed for, which would cost him millions.

I'm wondering if Vlad might be even older than 34.

Fantasy Impact: This revelation means Guerrero's slip in numbers last season might not be an off year as much as it could be the beginning of the end. His .521 SLG and .302 AVG were his worst since 1997. His 27 home runs matched his 2008 total, but both were also his worst since '97 when he only played a half-season. Guerrero is still a viable fantasy option, but he's no longer a second-round draft pick. If he slips to round five, however, Guerrero could be a major steal, especially if offseason knee surgery helps him bounce back.

Venezuela kings Italy

Felix Hernandez looked like the king of the hill Saturday in Toronto. The Venezuelan ace over matched Team Italy, striking out four in four innings on the way to a 7-0 victory. King Felix gave up just three base runners.

Hernandez looks like he's dropped weight. He was in solid form, and might be able to put up some gaudy fantasy numbers. He's only 23, and he's already won 39 MLB games.

Anyone think the Italians uniforms looked like the Dodgers?

Japan jumps Korea

Japan whipped Korea 14-2 to become the first team to advance from pool play in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

All five MLB players in the Japanese starting lineup contributed in the lopsided win: Ichiro recorded three hits and three runs. Kenji Johjima had three hits, two runs and two RBI. Kosuke Fukudome had a hit and a run. Akinori Iwamura scored twice on a pair of walks.

Daisuke Matsuzaka picked up the win, giving up two runs in four innings.

Puerto Rico rips Panama

Pudge Rodriguez certainly took to auditioning for a MLB job. He hit two home runs for Puerto Rico, going 4-4 in his home country's 7-0 win over Panama. Pudge contributed three runs and four RBI.

John Kruk mentioned Houston, Florida and the NY Mets as the three teams he expects to contend for Rodriguez's services behind the plate. Houston especially should give Pudge a look. Look at the bind they got into last year with the J.R. Towles experiment.

Also worth a mention: Carlos Delgado had three hits and a homer in four at bats. Delgado took a lot of heat for his inabilities early last season. Everyone said his bat looked slow and he was no longer the power hitter he once was. Then Delgado went nuts in the second half, hitting 27 home runs and driving in 80 runs in his last 84 games. He looked far from washed up.

Team USA defeates Canada

Team USA got off on the right foot with a 6-5 win over Canada, but it was a tough win. The Canadians have a nice lineup with Russell Martin, Joey Votto, Justin Morneau and Jason Bay occupying the No. 2 thru 5 slots. Votto stole the show with a 4-5 afternoon, including a home run and a ninth-inning RBI double to halve the American lead at 6-5. J.J. Putz, however, was able to get out of his own jam for the save.

The USA now plays the winner of Italy and Venezuela.

Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn and Brian McCann provided the power for Team USA, each connecting for a home run. The three bombs accounted for five of the six American runs. I don't think they're necessarily a station-to-station team, however, and the USA should be manufacture runs with probably the best lineup in the classic.

One more note on Votto. The Canadian coaching staff must be very high on him if they're willing to bat Votto ahead of Morneau and Bay in the third slot.

Dutch Treat even with Dominican dominance on the hill

Quite the shocker in the WBC. The Dominican Republic fell to the Netherlands, 3-2, despite DR pitching staff holding the Netherlands to three hits. In fact, the Dutch team struggled to make solid contact, failing to record an extra base hit. Two first-inning errors led to a three-run first from which the Dominicans never recovered.

With Randall Simon and Gene Kingsale the only Dutch players in the starting lineup with significant MLB experience, DR pitchers mostly had their way. Edinson Volquez struggled with the strike zone at times, missing the zone with 21 of his 58 pitches. He still managed three strike outs in three innings.

Pedro Martinez looked better than Volquez, zipping 32 strikes on 40 pitches. He struck out four in three innings, giving up just one hit. There was no gun available in the telecast, but here's guessing this outing turned the heads of several scouts regardless of the velocity.

Velez might get to run

With Dave Roberts released by the San Francisco Giants, a roster spot opens for one of a number of younger players. A San Francisco Chronicle writer thinks that slot has Eugenio Velez's name all over it.

This is a really good sign for Eugenio Velez, the team's most influential baserunner and a potential backup at either second base or the outfield. It now seems likely that Velez will make the team, if for no other reason than the speed he brings off the bench.

Velez still fights for time with Emmanuel Burris and Kevin Frandsen. That means his fantasy value is limited to steals until he cracks the lineup on a regular basis. Even then he might be limited to merely stolen bases.

Still don't bet on Tampa

The Tampa Bay Rays have certainly moved up in the world. Last year the Rays faced some of the longest odds in baseball in terms of winning the world series. Many sports books had the Rays between 150/1 and 200/1. This year, Bodog has Tampa at 18/1 odds.

The Yankees, at 4/1, are odds-on favorites. The Red Sox follow with 13/2 odds. That means Bodog doesn't expect Tampa to make the playoffs.

In the National League, the Cubs own the best odds at 17/2 with the Phillies coming in second at 14/1.

No naming rights, at least on these jerseys

There's no such thing as freedom of speech when it comes to buying personalized jerseys from MLB.com. There you can get A-Rod's No. 13 jersey with almost anything you like on it, but don't ask for A-Fraud. That's a no-no.

Any fan hoping to make fun of New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez can no longer get a No. 13 Yankees jersey with the word "A-Fraud" on the back.

MLB.com has banned the new A-Rod nickname from the personalization feature on replica jerseys on MLB.com. MLB.com spokesman Matt Gould told CNBC that the league does not allow fans to personalize products with anything that is deemed inappropriate, derogatory or profane.

Fans haven't been able to personalize their jerseys on the site with the word "steroids" since 2005, but as of this afternoon, fans can get A-Rod's drug of choice, "Boli," on the back of jerseys. They can also get "Sucart," the last name of A-Rod's cousin, who has been part of the story.

Here's guessing "Boli" and "Sucart" won't draw nearly the interested that A-Fraud was getting.

Requesting the Cubs

An interesting article at MinnPost.com explains how baseball scheduling is done today. I had no idea that teams make special solicitations as specific as requesting the Cubs for a home series.

It's far too late to make any radical changes to the 2009 Major League Baseball schedule. So Twins President Dave St. Peter offered two special requests to pass along to the firm that produces the 2010 sked: No road trips longer than nine games, and one interleague visit by the Cubs. "Because they do draw fans," St. Peter said.

Stunning, really. The article goes on to explain that most requests are more substantial, such as the Rockies needing to be out of Denver during last year's Democratic National Convention. Makes sense.

America or else

Tommy Lasorda gave Team USA a pep talk prior to the World Baseball Classic.

"We cannot allow those clubs to beat us. It's our game," the former Los Angeles Dodgers manager said Thursday. "Remember one thing: In your hearts, you better pull for the USA or you may not get into heaven."

"It's our game. Baseball is America's game. It doesn't belong to the Italians or the Cubans or the Koreans or the Japanese," he said. "It's our game, and we're not going to let them beat us."

Lasorda might be xenophobic when it comes to baseball, but he's willing to flip the switch for this year's world tournament despite his hostility toward everyone but the USA.

Lasorda, the Hall of Fame manager and Classic global ambassador, was there with Major League Baseball executive vice president of business Tim Brosnan and Empire State Building general manager Jim Connors for the official lighting ceremony of the Classic.

That evening, once the sun dipped below the Hudson River to the west, the Empire State Building was geared up to shine red, green, blue and yellow on each of the four sides of the building in honor of the World Baseball Classic colors.

"The colors on the building shows it's big-time," said Lasorda. "All of the country now will know about the Classic."

Yes, all of the country, indeed. Not all of the world. I'm guessing Lasorda wished that building was made up of the three primary colors. Well, his three primary colors of red, white and blue.

Fat Fausto

It's hip to have a hip problem, and Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona was well ahead of the trend with last year's hobbler which caused him to miss two months. It's not the hip, however, that was the concern when Cleveland opened spring training.

Fausto Carmona said he did report to spring training overweight, but is in better condition now.

"I've lost a few pounds," said Carmona, dripping sweat after his postgame sprints Wednesday. "I'm feeling much better."

Carmona, listed at 6-4 and 230 pounds, threw two scoreless innings Wednesday in the Tribe's 5-4 exhibition victory over the Cubs.

"Mentally, I've been just trying to throw the ball to the middle of the plate and not try to do too much," said Carmona, who walked 70 and struck out 58 last year.

If Carmona isn't keeping his weight in check, his stats could continue to take that hip check they suffered last year.

Fantasy Analysis: Two years ago, Carmona was hip as a fantasy staff ace. He won 19 games, and he finished fourth in Cy Young voting. His numbers, however, did not overwhelm. He gives up a high number of base runners for a top-tier pitcher, and he doesn't strike people out. At best, Carmona is a three-category starter in a five-category league, and that's if he can keep that WHIP down. He's no better than a middle-round option at this point.

Skipping on Schumaker

The Cardinals' "Schumaker at second" project continues with the pint-sized outfielder adjusting to his assignment in the pivot.

Schumaker misplayed a couple of routine choppers Sunday, suffering the first setback in his transition from outfield back to infield.

“Those ground balls the other day are outs,” Schumaker said. “Pitchers expect those balls to be out and so do I. So I have to get that down.”

On the first play, he stayed back on the ball, then rushed his catch-and-flip to get the force-out at second base. He cuffed the ball as a result.

On the second play, Schumaker backed up on a chopper -– and the last bounce ate him alive.

“Once I backed up, I was praying the ball would go into my glove,” he said after the game. “It didn’t.”

Good luck, Schu. Here's hoping for your sake things work out, but I'm not entirely certain you're the right fit for the Redbirds at second long-term. And it's not your glove I'm worried about. It's your bat.

My point about Schumaker's bat is this: last season the average Major Leaguer hit .260 with a slugging percentage of .413. That means a player's isolated slugging percentage was 153 points higher than his batting average. Schumaker's ISOSLG was just 104 points above his batting average (.406-.302=.104). He gets slap hits, but a .300 hitter without pop has a lot less impact on a game than a guy who hits .280 with average power.

Neither Adam Kennedy (.092 SLG) nor Aaron Miles (.081 ISOSLG) were better options than Schumaker bat-wise at second for St. Louis. That said, Schumaker offers very little pop, and his lack of base stealing and less-than-ideal OBA for hitting leadoff (.359) make him expendable down the road.

In fact, all of these second baseman put up better "pop" numbers than Schumaker last season (ISOSLG):

Mike Fontenot, CHC (.167)
Ricky Weeks, MIL (.161)
Kaz Matsui, HOU (.134)

That's just the NL Central. Freddie Sanchez, PIT (.100) was the only 2B in the Central with less pop than Schu last year, but his career ISOSLG is .117. Schumaker's minor league ISOSLG is only .095.

That said, the Cardinals must be considering Schumaker their best option right now at second base but not necessarily for the future, and certainly not considering he is already 29. You can find players much younger than Schu who have more upside. I like Skip, but not enough to bank on him long-term.

Nasty Boys part II?

All three of the Cardinals closing candidates -- Chris Perez, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin -- looked good against the Dominican Republic today.

Veteran Ryan Franklin, dazzling in his first outing, retired all six men he faced. Young Chris Perez, who had struggled in his first two outings, had a perfect inning; Josh Kinney, who had walked four hitters in two previous innings, didn't walk anybody and Jason Motte worked his third straight scoreless inning.

That has me wondering: might the Cardinals end up going with a three-man closer like the Cincinnati Reds of yesteryear? I'm not saying Perez / Motte / Franklin will ever be as talented as Randy Myers / Rob Dibble / Norm Charlton, but maybe it's time to bring back the three-headed committee approach.

Now that I look at it, Charlton wasn't much of a closer. Myers did most of the work for the 1990 Reds while Dibble closed out more games in 1991. Tim Layana equaled Charlton with two saves in '90! Ted Power had the third most for Cincy in '91 with three. What a bullpen!

Can the Cardinals-Pedro talk

The buzz centered around a meeting between the Cardinals and Pedro Martinez on Thursday morning, but as soon as the headlines rolled around for Friday, it was over. Pedro Martinez is not, and will not become, a closer candidate for the Redbirds (last graph).

Intrigue over approaching former Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez as a potential closer will go no farther. The club now views projected set-up man Ryan Franklin as its alternative to Chris Perez and Jason Motte should the younger pitchers not assert themselves this spring.

Something tells me Pedro still wants to start. If he can get a gig as a fifth starter somewhere else, he'll take it.

Fantasy Impact: Much has been made of Jason Motte's makeup as a future closer, but what's not to like about Perez? This battle could go on and on and on.

Banged-up BoSox on the mend

It must be hip to have a hip problem. First Chase Utley, then A-Rod and then, well, before A-Rod, actually, there was Mike Lowell.

Lowell is progressing nicely from right hip surgery and could play his first exhibition game "within a week," according to manager Terry Francona.

"We're getting into that area now where we can maybe think about DHing [him] a couple of at-bats, and then [have him] play third," Francona said. "But I bet you were getting close enough where it will be within a week. He's doing good. He's doing fine. He's running the bases. Every step he's supposed to do, he's done. We'll do our best to ease him in as much as we can where he gets comfortable baseball-wise."

The Red Sox need Lowell now as much as ever. He was really their fallback option at third this season when any chance to sign Mark Teixeira was nixed when the Yankees signed him. If Tex went to Boston, Kevin Youkilis would slide to third and Lowell would be the odd man out.

J.D. Drew is also back to baseball after a cortisone shot in his back.

In fact, Drew said that his lower back has been at its best of late when he's on the field. It's normally when he's sitting at home or doing some other idle activity when it tightens up.

"It seemed like the more I got it loose and moving around, I wasn't really having any issues out there playing," said Drew. "That was encouraging. But it is aggravating to be sitting at home and what we call dancing in the chair, back and forth, trying to get in a position that doesn't really stiffen up. I had good days and bad days, and hopefully, this will give me the benefit of getting freed up and having a lot of good days."

The purpose of the shot was to get some scar tissue out of the facet joint and reduce the inflammation.

Drew played just 109 games last season with injury problems, but he did hit the 140-game mark each of the two seasons prior.

Fantasy Impact: Drew and Lowell are big time gambles in fantasy ball this year. If you draft one of the two, chances are you got them as a high risk, high reward type in the second half of your draft. Take other third baseman and outfielders before drafting Lowell or Drew. Ideally, Lowell is more of a corner infielder or a backup while Drew is a fourth outfielder who hits like a No. 3 if he can hit that 140-game plateau.

Yankees third base options

Peter Gammons, commenting on the possibility of Alex Rodriguez missing an extended period of time this season with his hip injury, brought up two possible trade candidates for New York in terms of replacement third baseman. Adrian Beltre, who's coming back from a shoulder problem, is likely on the block in Seattle. Garrett Atkins, who has a one year deal through 2009 in Colorado might also be attainable via trade.

Update: Oddly enough, Atkins was scratched from today's Rockies game due to a hip flexor injury.

If A-Rod can't come back...

Boston's coverage of Alex Rodriguez's hip injury included this forward-looking musing on the outside chance that the ailment becomes career-threatening.

The Rodriguez news, changing by the hour, has more immediate impact on the Sox. A-Rod seems certain to miss the beginning of the season, could be out until late summer, and may have a career-threatening condition with $275 million still owed from the Yankees.

While that money could impact the Yankees over the years, with YES Network money and the New Yankee Stadium set to open in April, I don't see New York entering any financial straits, perhaps, ever.

Winners and losers in Manny deal

I find the LA Times coverage of Manny Ramirez's signing odd, if not overly cynical. The Times' headline on Wednesday's agreement between the Dodgers and Ramirez: Manny Ramirez deal with Dodgers: Who won?

Bill Plaschke says Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti was the big winner, "correctly reading the market and holding firm despite a winter's worth of criticism.''

You can follow Plaschke, by the way, at twitter.com/latbillplaschke.

Jeff Passan of YahooSports! writes that all the stalling still didn't give the Dodgers enough time to recognize "the gravity of their mistake.''

As for Ramirez, he reportedly will appear at a news conference tomorrow in Arizona, but he spoke to T.J. Simers last night and revealed that he was close to returning to Mannywood.

I guess it's not just the paper that has the cynical view of the deal being between enemy combatants "The Dodgers" and "Manny Ramirez." Jeff Passan obviously sees it that way, too, that the Dodgers and Ramirez were at war over the contract, and there's obviously a winner and a loser between the two.

That's hard to say, and it's not really what negotiating is about. I remember early on in my career, when negotiating my work contracts, I was told the best deal resulted in both sides feeling like they could've done better, meaning each gave a little to get closer to what they wanted. What someone wants vs. what they get is not necessarily winning and losing. It's what's attainable vs. what isn't attainable at the time. The Dodgers, in a bad economy, decided they could only spend so much. Manny Ramirez found he couldn't get more money elsewhere and took the best offer he could get from Los Angeles.

There's no winner or loser here. Ramirez got a ton of money ($45M over 2 years). The Dodgers got one of the top offense outfielders in baseball. If anyone lost, it is the National League West, and perhaps whoever else offered up Ramirez a contract.

Even with a torn labrum A-Rod should shine

So Alex Rodriguez will attempt to play through pain. A torn labrum in his right hip could eventually require surgery, but A-Rod will tough it out for now.

"There's two courses of action concerning what he has," Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman said Thursday from Tampa, Fla. "There is treat it conservatively, which would imply rest, exercise and treatment. Or you can treat it aggressively, which is by surgery. At this point in time, we are going to go the conservative route."

There have been comparisons of A-Rod's injury to Chase Utley's. Utley played last year with his own hip injury and is just getting back to playing baseball again after surgery in late November.

Recently we have seen other high-profile baseball players undergo surgery to address labral injuries, including Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell. Utley, for one, had labral surgery in late November and is optimistic that he'll be ready for Opening Day. "Optimistic" is not "certain," though, and the time lapse between Utley's surgery and Opening Day will be about 19 weeks.

So, let's see how much Utley's numbers suffered from 2007 to 2008 to see what kind of impact we might see in A-Rod's 2009 season, assuming he can play through the pain like Utley did.

Utley
2006 - AB: 658 R: 131 HR: 32 RBI: 102 SB: 15 OBA: .379 SLG: .527 AVG: .309
2007 - AB: 530 R: 104 HR: 22 RBI: 103 SB: 9 OBA: .410 SLG: .566 AVG: .332
2008 - AB: 607 R: 113 HR: 33 RBI: 104 SB: 14 OBA: .380 SLG: .535 AVG: .292

A-Rod
2006 - AB: 572 R: 113 HR: 35 RBI: 121 SB: 15 OBA: .392 SLG: .523 AVG: .290
2007 - AB: 583 R: 143 HR: 54 RBI: 156 SB: 24 OBA: .422 SLG: .645 AVG: .314
2008 - AB: 510 R: 104 HR: 35 RBI: 103 SB: 18 OBA: .392 SLG: .573 AVG: .302

Utley's numbers over the past two years were most significantly impacted with his broken hand back in 2007. That injury caused him to miss several weeks in the late summer, retarding what might have been a career year. That said, Utley might've been on a growth trend that was further retarded in 2008 with the hip injury. His numbers in 2008 included a better slugging percentage than in 2006 and a better batting average, showing that despite the hip injury he was still playing at a very high level.

Of note: Utley stole 14 bases in 2008 despite the hip problem, which was just a couple of bags short of his career high and one short of his 2006 total when he batted 51 more times.

Fantasy Impact: If he can tolerate the pain, A-Rod has every ability to play with this injury and play well. Utley did not experience much of an impact in terms of matching his stellar numbers from previous seasons. A-Rod shouldn't either. If you think it's worth risking an eventual surgery or midseason shutdown, A-Rod is still a first round draft pick and high-end candidate to anchor your fantasy team's offense.