Saturday, October 11, 2008

Tampa Bay's devastating double

A loss for Tampa Bay tonight might be devastating. If it happens, forget all the stats you'll hear about a team dropping the first two games at home and then attempting to come back to win an ALCS and just hear this. For the Rays, losing at home is something they simply don't do, and falling in the first two at Tropicana Field would have to shake the team's confidence considerably.

Tampa hasn't dropped back-to-back games at the Trop since losing their first two of three to the Yankees on September first and second. Those two losses provided the Rays with their first losing series in St. Pete since falling in two of three against Houston from June 20-22. Prior to that, you have to go back to a three-game set with the White Sox from April 18-20 to find the last time the Rays fell in a home series. The last time they lost two in a row at home prior to the Yankees "twin" wins in September? It was a pair of losses to the Yankees back on April 14 and 15, which was part of an overarching slide that saw Tampa Bay fall six times in nine games.

If the Rays lose games one and two, they'll fall into near unprecedented territory. It might put major chinks in a young team's confidence. After losing those first two of their series against the Yankees in early September, the Rays got game three. Then they turned around and lost three straight on the road in Toronto. The good news? Tampa next visited Boston, and after the BoSox took game one to make it four straight road losses for the Rays, Tampa took the next two.

Down (a bit) on Upton's defense

B.J. Upton appears to be a very good defensive center fielder. He threw out 16 runners in 2008, almost double the number of any other center fielder. He appears to have a lot of range. His range rating (2.84) was third in baseball this year for his position, behind only the speedy Carlos Gomez (3.15) and the somewhat surprising Aaron Rowand (2.95). Upton's speed allows him to play shallow and get to a number of balls other player couldn't reach.

That said, he might be lacking in a single area. I think he plays too shallow. Maybe the Rays encourage this, thinking Upton can make up ground behind him with his impressive speed, but it doesn't seem to do so in actuality. Two cases in point - I've seen Upton now have no chance on what would've been potentially routine fly balls this postseason, because he was playing too shallow. The first came against the White Sox, the second came tonight with a Coco Crisp ground-rule double in the ninth of game two in the ALDS. Upton also carries a below average zone rating for center fielders. That means he's not getting to a number of balls considered to be hit to his area.

Are the balls he struggles to get hit mostly over his head? Baseball should follow this stat (balls hit over outfielders head) to help us determine how often a fielder tends to be in position. There could also be stats kept on balls that get past fielders to their left and right. We'd get a pretty good idea of which players overplay in certain directions versus other fielders. Tendencies of incorrectly overplaying fielders could be examined regarding how teams position their players for certain batters, pitchers, etc. Just a thought.

Update: Upton just ran one down at the track - another ball that almost got over his head.

Not even seeing about Seattle

Buster Olney says Athletics assistant general manager David Forst will not interview with Mariners officials regarding their GM opening.
"There's going to be plenty of room for growth for David in the Oakland organization," said Billy Beane, the Oakland general manager, on Friday. "He wants to stay here and be a part of what we've started."
I'm shocked he would flatly turn down the opportunity. Does that mean the Marniners organization is not attractive? I can't believe staying in small-market Oakland as second in command could beat running a team in Seattle.

Friday, October 10, 2008

San Francisco steamin'

I guess San Francisco can't get over its hatred for Tommy Lasorda and the Dodgers. This is ridiculous.
Tommy Lasorda has withdrawn as grand marshal of Sunday's Italian Heritage Parade due to public stink about his selection and because organizers couldn't assure that he would get to Los Angeles in time to see his beloved Dodgers play Game 3 of the National League Championship Series.

San Francisco Supervisor Michela Alioto-Pier threatened to introduce a resolution calling for Lasorda's ouster from the parade because of the Dodgers-Giants rivalry. Alioto-Pier called the former Dodgers manager "enemy No. 1" in San Francisco. She never introduced the measure.

"I'm not going to go. They made a big thing out of it," Lasorda said today as he watched the Dodgers' batting practice in preparation for their game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Alioto-Pier's resolution also called Dodger fans "boastful and smug."

Asked if the episode bothered him, Lasorda said, "Sure it did, putting up a resolution to get me not to be the grand marshal. How would you feel?

"I wanted to do it because I love San Francisco, I really do. I love the city. We have a rivalry there. What the hell? That's the way it is."
Never should something like this be "the way it is." This is insane. The guy was already booked for the parade; then they raise the stink?

Enemy no. 1? I'm sure San Francisco can do better than Tommy Lasorda for their most hated enemy. How about fault lines or obscene cost of living?

Dodger Blues

Dodgers turning into Cubs? Bill Plaschke thinks so.
Who is this team that, one week after boldly sweeping the Chicago Cubs, is timidly collecting at the same dust pan after losing the first two games of the National League Championship Series to the Philadelphia Phillies?

The final score here in Friday's Game 2 Phillies' victory was 8-5, but it wasn't that close, because the Dodgers just weren't that good.

Who is this manager who allowed his starting pitcher to wilt for a second consecutive game? What happened to the great Joe Torre?

Who is this outfielder who has one bloop hit in seven at-bats, zero hits in five chances with men on base and one big center-field boot? Where is the likable Matt Kemp?

What about the leadoff hitter who has one hit in nine at-bats, a game-changing wild throw, and all sorts of uncomfortable grimaces? Who took the beloved Rafael Furcal?

The Dodgers didn't just leave Citizens Bank Park field Friday, they were thrown out by a Phillies team that pushed them to the door just before snatching their swagger.
My sentiments, exactly.

Canseco caught with illegal drugs

The Jose Canseco saga enters a new chapter of his troubling life as the former slugger is caught trying to smuggle fertility drugs across the border from Mexico.
Canceco was detained at San Diego's San Ysidro border crossing Thursday after agents searched his vehicle and said they found human chorionic gonadotropin, which is illegal without a prescription, said his attorney, Gregory Emerson.

Emerson declined to say if Canseco -- who admitted to using steroids in a 2005 book that also alleged steroid use by other baseball players -- had the drug, which is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency for use in males. The drug helps restore production of testosterone lost in steroid users.
This would appear to be the desperate move of a desperate man.

Manny being Manny, Phillies being World Series bound

Back-to-back four-run innings push the Phillies past the Dodgers, 8-5. Chad Billingsley, the young Dodger ace who looked unflappable at Wrigley last week, got slapped hard by the men in red. The Phillies nickel and dimed him to death for seven earned runs charged to Billingsley in just 2 1/3 innings of work. Shane Victorino's two-run triple in the third capped off the barrage of scoring. It was over after three.

Manny Ramirez did pull three runs back in the fourth with his third home run of the postseason, but it wasn't nearly enough. A sloppy Brett Myers gives up five earned in five innings, and still gets the win.

Up 2-0, the Phillies are in the driver's seat. LA probably needs to win all three at home starting Sunday.

Dice rolls

Very impressed watching Daisuke Matsuzaka tonight. The Boston ace went seven strong innings, striking out nine and not allowing a run. Thanks to timely-enough hitting, Boston squeezed out a couple of runs to beat Tampa Bay, 2-0. That puts all the pressure on the young Rays in game two.

Conine going extra

162 games of baseball is often referred to be like a marathon. Jeff Conine wanted to see if he could push things a bit further. The former MLB player will participate in his first Ironman triathlon in Hawaii Saturday.
Conine, a member of the Marlins' two World Series championship teams, must swim 2.4 miles, bike 112 miles and run 26.2 miles in 17 hours to claim Ironman status.

''There's nothing that I've done that will come close to this,'' Conine, 42, said Wednesday by phone from Hawaii. ``I'm nervous. I'm anxious. I'm fearful because I've never done all three [disciplines] in one day at this distance. You don't know how your body will react and how you will get through it.''
For the first time, I might actually check out the results of a triathlon this weekend.

Manuel's mother passes

Charlie Manuel's mother passed away. Manuel will still manage game two of the Phillies-Dodgers NLCS. The Phillies manager is one of ten surviving children.
June Manuel, who was 87, reportedly suffered a heart attack on Wednesday and died Friday at Roanoke Memorial Hospital in Virginia. She lived in Buena Vista, Va.
What a difficult moment for the Phillies and Manuel. He'll certainly have the support of his team and the tough Philly crowd after this. All the best to Charlie.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

WBC on ESPN and MLB Network

The World Baseball Classic will be split between ESPN and the MLB Network. That's not necessarily bad news. MLB Network is getting distributed by a number of the providers that butted heads with the NFL Network, because those providers own a share of MLB's Network.
Thanks to negotiations, some bizarre and some fractious, the MLB Network will begin with an endowment of more than 50 million subscribers, which will provide the channel with a level of cash that Werner said would make it break even immediately.

Baseball is swapping one-third ownership of its channel with DirecTV, Comcast, Time Warner and Cox for wide distribution, thus avoiding the kind of ongoing distribution turf war that the NFL Network is having with Big Cable.
Smart business, and there's a good chance you'll get to see the games.

So-so, so far

Spitting Seeds' playoff picks? Just OK for the first round of the postseason.

My pre-playoff pick for World Series has no chance of materializing, but a Cubs-Red Sox clash felt very possible going in.

Boston did defeat 100-game winner Los Angeles in the ALDS, but the White Sox couldn't keep up with the Rays. I've been picking against Tampa all year. I thought the Red Sox would catch them by the All-Star break, and they did, but they couldn't hold it for long as the Rays won the division. I'm still taking the BoSox in the ALDS, although these Rays are making me more of a believer. I don't like picking against them, because I do think they have a good team. They just don't impress me like others do. Boston better win one of the first two, however, because this series seems likely to return to St. Petersburg, and it would do them good to have a little confidence winning in the dome for the return trip.

In one NLDS series, the Cubs got swept by the Dodgers, whereas I thought the Cubs would carry the broomstick. Philly made quick and easy work of Milwaukee, as expected. I love the Phillies-Dodgers NLCS matchup, and while I don't like picking against Joe Torre's club, my gut goes with Philadelphia. I think the series goes seven games.

Monday, October 6, 2008

CC you in NY or LA

Ken Rosenthal releases his CC Sabathia odds as the lefty hits the free agent market in November. Only the top two (Yankees at 5-2 and Angels at 4-1) seem possible to this Spitting Seeds. Nothing else in the list seems to work even remotely at this time.

Soriano: "We can't sprint"

Alfonso Soriano has a theory on why the Cubs didn't win in the postseason. Soriano says the Cubs can't win in series play.
"Yeah, it's tough," he said. "We tried, but it just didn't happen. We played all year like a very good team and we expected a little bit more, but it didn't happen."

While he didn't pass the buck, Soriano said he believes the Cubs were built for a marathon, not a sprint.

"We're a very good team for [162] games, but we don't do nothing after that," he said. "That's the difference. We're not put together for [a short series]."
I think this assessment is only fair in terms of the Cubs being too right-handed in terms of their power. Only Jim Edmonds brought a routinely robust bat from the left side. When the Cubs face a team like the Dodgers with a righty-only rotation, this right-handed stacking can only hurt their opportunity to score runs.

The Cubs, however, still thrived against all sorts of pitchers all season long. They dominated the National League, winning 97 games, and they might be the most well-rounded team in baseball. Their rotation trotted out three aces against the Dodgers, yet each looked extremely hittable. Well-rounded teams with front-line pitching is perfectly built for the postseason. The Cubs just failed to put anything together in any facet of the game. Call it tightening up, choking or poor playing; the Cubs were built to succeed but didn't.

Cursed Kenney

Something that went under-published in recent days: Cubs chairman Crane Kenney, who isn't much of a baseball man in the first place, hired a Greek Orthodox priest to lift the "curse" on the Cubs. Cubs players didn't know about it until they saw the curse removal on TV. A TBS camera man happened to catch it.
The story began a couple days ago, when Cubs Chairman Crane Kenney left a message on Greanis’ voice mail to call him. Greanis thought his friends were playing a prank on him, but when he eventually got in contact with Kenney, he found out the reason for the call.

“He said, ‘I’m a devout Catholic, and I’m not superstitious, but if there is anything there, I want to take care of it,’” Greanis said Thursday.

The Billy Goat curse was placed on the Cubs in 1945 when Billy Goat Tavern owner William Sianis was denied entrance to a World Series game at Wrigley Field because he wanted to bring in his goat. The curse was immortalized in newspaper columns over the years, particularly by syndicated columnist Mike Royko, and gained widespread attention during the 2003 postseason when Fox played it up during the Cubs-Florida match-up in the National League Championship Series.

Kenney told Greanis that they wanted a Greek Orthodox priest to bless the dugout, since the alleged curse was placed by a Greek-American.
Cubs management really doesn't get it, do they? I mean, this sort of thing just promotes the lugubrious hex that some say haunts the Cubs. Get a clue, Crane Kenney. It's a joke that someone in his position would believe in such a silly superstition as a curse. His odd attention to something Lou Piniella himself deems ridiculous only adds distraction to the matter at hand.

On the other side of the same coin, Cubs players should be able to shrug off this sort of misstep by their organization.

Dodgers: Cubs buckled

Whether or not we buy it, the Dodgers are saying that pressure got to the Cubs. Joe Torre may know a thing or two about the pressure of the postseason.
"Starting in Chicago may have been a benefit for us," Torre said. "Because I just thought that with everything going on with them having the record they've had, I've experienced it before.

"It's a lot of pressure when you're playing at home. I may be off base, but that's just my feeling."

Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre, the former Cub, shared Torre's opinion that the Cubs were under big-time pressure.

"In Chicago, everybody worries about the Cubs and you can't relax and go out and play without hearing the hype and it definitely adds pressure, because you're supposed to win," Pierre told MLB.com. "They'd have done better if they opened on the road.

"The fans there are craving it for so long, it escalates and snowballs as soon as any little thing goes wrong, and everybody starts thinking about the past."

White Sox willing to fight

The White Sox 5-3 win in front of a "black out" crowd at Wrigley means the Sox live to fight another day against the Rays. A three-run fourth proved enough to rattle the Rays in their first opportunity to clinch, and the Sox looked comfortable the rest of the way.

Afterwards, A.J. Pierzynski said this was the "loosest" team he's been on in terms of big games. Pierzynski must be on to something. These Sox have won four straight elimination games in the past two weeks, including three straight over three different teams to get into the posteason; something that's never been done before. Closing them out will be tough for the Rays, a feelgood bunch that looked on a roll in the first two games of the series.

Gavin Floyd goes against Andy Sonnanstine Monday afternoon at the Cell. Floyd is extremely tough to hit at home, posting a .209 batting average against.

Angels survive thanks to mercurial Napoli

Mike Napoli continues to baffle with wild streaks of productivity and slump. Tonight, productivity won out in Boston as Napoli belted two home runs and scored the game's winning run in a 5-4 Angels survivor win at Fenway. With the win, Los Angeles forces game four Monday night.

Napoli, who continues his September rampage that saw his average climb from .212 to .273, was down at .197 for a day in mid June before rebounding to .223 in August. He started April off at a solid clip before bottoming out to .218 by the end of the month. He got it back up to the .260's and then .258 in early June before the slide sub-Mendoza.

Overall, his numbers have generally improved over his first three seasons. He's at least a candidate to earn more playing time if he stays hot, but has yet to reach 300 at bats in his career. That makes him an iffy fantasy option again next year, unless youngster Jeff Mathis finally gets his act together. He started hot, but then slumped to .197 himself. Even so, he ended up with more at bats than Napoli.

A steal, or not a steal?

Jacoby Ellsbury's attempted steal of second base tonight, a simple caught stealing in the box score, deserves a little more attention, I think.

For as long as baseball's been scored, players stealing second, who then fall off the bag as Ellsbury did, have been considered "caught" stealing. I've always thought this was a flawed scoring of the play, and I think the remedy should be to give the player a steal and a caught stealing on the same play. Statistically this credits the player with reaching the bag before the throw, giving us a better indicator of his ability to steal, but also explains to us why he was out (over-sliding the bag).

Just an idea I've been kicking around forever. Baseball is unlikely ever to adopt this practice as the could not possibly go back and find out how many caught stealing calls were actually steals and then tag outs. Oh well.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

TBS troubles

Anyone notice all the issues TBS is suffering from covering these MLB playoff games? Craig Sager's interview with Mike Napoli is echoing like the two are talking in a tunnel. The same happened during Joe Blanton's postgame interview live on the field in Milwaukee.

TBS has experienced a few technical glitches, as well, with pops in broadcasts and audio dropouts at times. They also employ Chip Caray, which doesn't help their reputation any better. Also, their strike zone indicator appears a bit off on some pitches.

One more note, Ernie Johnson and TNT's pregame/postgame shows are a lot more watchable than MLB's cast. Dennis Eckersley, Curtis Granderson and Cal Ripken don't seem to have the same spark as Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley. I think the problem is that TBS is almost entirely copying the way they analyze NBA games for a baseball show. I don't think you can do any two shows on two different sports the same way. Something doesn't sit right, and this comes from a person who's spent a number of years in broadcasting. I can't quite figure it out, but I'm uncomfortable watching the shows. Maybe it's that I feel like baseball needs a ton of analysis and less playfulness among the analysts, where as basketball is sometimes the opposite.

Update: For instance, the TBS panel just talked about a pop fly that dropped into center field, explaining why the ball dropped between Howie Kendrick and Torii Hunter. Whether or not that play matters very much, they spend too much time talking about something that any fan can discern from their couch at home. Yawn.