Saturday, April 18, 2009

Guerrero DL stint good for Wood?

As expected, Vlad Guerrero hit the disabled list Friday with a torn pectoral muscle and will miss at least a month. Speculation has Brandon Wood the likely call-up. His power bat might fit nicely in the middle-end of the Angels lineup.

Fantasy Impact: Guerrero's not a factor for at least a month or beyond. DL him asap. Wood looks like the obvious call-up candidate with his power abilities. He strikes out a ton, however, so in leagues that penalize whiffs, you might have second thoughts.

Sheffield's 500th

Gary Sheffield hit his 500th home run Friday night in a 5-4 Mets win over San Diego. Sheffield pinch hit in the seventh inning, his fifth at bat and first hit of the season. He's the 25th major leaguer to hit 25 home runs.

Fantasy Impact: Mets Manager Jerry Manuel says he wants Sheffield in shape to play the outfield, and that time needs to come sooner rather than later for fantasy owners. For now, Sheffield is nothing more than a one at bat wonder each and every day.

Webb's successful game of catch

After the most anticipated game of catch in the world Friday, April 17th, Brandon Webb said his arm is feeling better.
They threw for about 10 minutes, with manager Bob Melvin and pitching coach Bryan Price watching, but Webb said he needed almost no time to realize how much better he was feeling.

"I was a little apprehensive letting it go right off the bat, but as soon as I started throwing I was like, 'This feels totally different from what it did (before),' " he said.
Fantasy Impact: This is obviously one small step for Webb in the recovery process. He's going to have to clear a couple more hurdles before he even considers pitching in a game again.

Kudos to Kubel on cycle

Jason Kubel's grand slam capped off a cycle against the Angels and a spectacular night for the Twins outfielder. Kubel goes 4-5 with five RBI and two runs in a 10-8 Twins win at the Metrodome.

Fantasy Impact: Kubel is considered part of a platoon in the Twins outfield with Delmon Young, and he's earning quite a few of the at bats. He's good for maybe 450 this season, but if he continues to break out, Kubel will become a full-fledged starter.

Benching Bonifacio

After he struck out seven times in 10 at bats, the Florida Marlins kept Emilio Bonifacio out of the starting lineup Friday night. They're trying to get the youngster to change his approach at the plate. Namely, chasing high fastballs.

Fantasy Impact: Certainly Bonifacio's amazing breakout to start the season was going to cool considerably at some point this season, but to see him go from such a peak to such a valley smacks of a youthful player still becoming accustomed to an every day role as a big leaguer. He'll continue to produce and sputter in waves this season. You'll have to hope for more periods of production than otherwise.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Downs or Frasor after Ryan?

Athlon Sports releases its latest on closer roles up for grabs, expecting Manny Corpas to eventually take over for Huston Street and Jason Frasor potentially winning the Blue Jays job from B.J. Ryan.

For more on closers, see 2009 MLB closers.

Fantasy Impact: There's really no information available on Frasor wresting the job from Ryan or even winning it over setup man Scott Downs, whom Cito Gaston himself considered Ryan's biggest challenger at the end of the spring. The only reason Frasor earned a save this season was he bailed out Ryan in a game against the Indians when Downs had already been used.

Frasor has started using a split-finger pitch this season with solid results. So, while it is possible that Frasor has the stuff to close games, it isn't necessarily likely that he will be the first reliever off the bench when Ryan falters. We'll consider Downs the favorite to see opportunities while Frasor is possibly choice 1A.

The left-handed Maddux?

There's something special about White Sox starter John Danks. Danks threw six innings of two-hit baseball in Tampa Thursday night, striking out eight while giving up a single run. He earned his first win of 2009, a 3-2 nail-biter over the Rays.

At the age of 24, Danks is growing into a legitimate MLB pitcher. He won't wow anyone with his stuff, which is more than adequate but still not overwhelming. His numbers, however, jump off the page in Greg Maddux-like fashion. Take a look at the pitchers' first two seasons in the majors. The comparison is eerie.

2007 JD -- 6-13 ERA: 5.50 IP: 139.0 H: 160 HR: 28 BB: 54 K: 109 WHIP: 1.540
1987 GM -- 6-14 ERA: 5.61 IP: 155.2 H: 181 HR: 17 BB: 74 K: 101 WHIP: 1.638

2008 JD -- 12-9 ERA: 3.32 IP: 195.0 H: 182 HR: 15 BB: 57 K: 159 WHIP: 1.226
1988 GM -- 18-8 ERA: 3.18 IP: 249.0 H: 230 HR: 13 BB: 81 K: 140 WHIP: 1.249

Their rookie seasons are near-mirror images of each other. Danks gave up more home runs while Maddux kept the ball in the yard but gave up more base runners. Year two shows some separation in the numbers as Maddux began his winning ways and threw more innings, but it's not that far off. Danks limited base runners in Maddux-like fashion, and he continued to use his above-average pitches to strike out more batters.

It's hard to draw the conclusion that Danks will continue his meteoric rise as one of the top young arms in baseball based on this comparison to Maddux. The Hall of Famer eventually produced off-the-charts stats, like 20 BB and a 0.946 WHIP in 1997. He did win 355 games for a reason: he averaged 16 wins over his 23 seasons.

Danks is behind a year age-wise, and he's eight wins behind Maddux through two full seasons in the big leagues. He's got the numbers to expect great things ahead, and while a Greg Maddux comparison is not fair to almost any pitcher, the first two years are comparable for John Danks. Maddux entered the big leagues as a young 20-year-old with considerable upside, but his first season in Chicago left some with tempered expectations. Danks is the same type of high-end prospect who met with limited success when he first cracked the surface. Since then, he's been brilliant.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Valverde hurt?

LaTroy Hawkins worked the ninth inning of the Astros' 6-3 victory at Pittsburgh. Both Rotoworld.com and The Sporting News worry that Valverde may have some sort of arm problem. He only threw 16 pitches the night before in a non-save situation.

Fantasy Impact: If Valverde is hurt, Hawkins hasn't had a whole lot of success as a closer.

Who's your Padres?

Break up San Diego, the Padres can't be beaten. Despite a ho-hum pitching performance from Jake Peavy, San Diego knocked around Mets starter John Maine for six runs on seven hits in just five innings. Heath Bell earned his fifth save in five chances and still hasn't allowed a run. 6-5 is the final.

Second-year slow-starter Chase Headley powered the Padres with four hits in four at bats and three RBI. San Diego is 7-3.

Fantasy Impact: Peavy's WHIP of 2.000 in this one was very disappointing, and he only lasted five innings. Peavy still earns his second win. He's fairly solid in his role as a fantasy ace.

Headley brought his average back up to .256. He's a high-end prospect, and if he can overcome the spacious alleys of Petco Park, he might be able to have a breakout season in 2009.

Martis leads Nats to first win

Washington is finally a winner. Behind a solid outing from rookie starter Shairon Martis, the Nationals pounded out eight runs on 13 hits to beat Joe Blanton and the Phillies, 8-2. Washington improves to 1-7 while dropping the Phils to 4-4.

Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes and Alberto Gonzalez all went deep for the Nats, and the bullpen tossed 2 2/3 innings of no-hit ball.

Fantasy Impact: Martis' name was bantered about in fantasy circles this preseason. He put together fairly good numbers in the minors, but walks have been his biggest problem. He only walked two on this night, and if he can keep the ball in the zone, Martis might be a modest sleeper candidate pitching for a bad team.

Halladay outduels Liriano

Francisco Liriano pitched well for the first time this season, but the Twins lefty still lost to the Blue Jays' Roy Halladay, 9-2. While Liriano was busy pitching six strong innings, giving up one run with six strikeouts, Hallady was besting him in nearly every category. Halladay worked seven innings and struck out eight. He picks up his third win. Liriano suffers his third loss.

Toronto, which sent eight batters to the plate hitting better than .300, is now a surprising 8-3. They beat up on the Twins bullpen.

Fantasy Impact: Liriano's effort is a serious relief for owners wondering when he'd lower his lofty ERA. It's down to 5.09 now, which is at least entering respectability.

Halladay is an ace who many allowed to slide in fantasy drafts due to his unlikeliness to win with the Blue Jays. He's 3-0 and can make it halfway to ten before the end of the month.

Cards bats, not Wainwright, beat Cubs

Despite the loss of Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals continue to make one of the best starts in the majors. With a 7-4 win over the Cubs, St. Louis improves to 8-3 on the year.

They got it done with hitting on Thursday with Chris Duncan, Khalil Greene and Brian Barden all going deep. Then again, the Cardinals were facing Cubs fifth starter Sean Marshall while the Cubs dealt with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright.

Fantay Impact: Wainwright actually didn't pitch very well, giving up four runs in six innings while still earning a win. He's giving up a lot of base runners but keeping them from scoring. He'll need to right that ship if he wants to maintain a 3.31 ERA.

Duncan is hitting .389, and Tony La Russa's faith in him against lefties like Marshall is paying off. He picked up three hits today in four at bats.

Guerrero to visit Yocum

Injuries continue to mount in the second full week of the season. Vlad Guerrero, struggling with a bothersome pectoral muscle, is leaving the Angels to take a visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum.
“I want to get back to playing right field,” he said in the clubhouse through an interpreter. “The way I am swinging the bat has nothing to do with this. … I just haven’t gotten into the swing of things.”

He said he first felt discomfort during an exhibition against the Dodgers four days before opening day.

“It progressed to the point that I can’t play the field, and I want to take care of it,” he said.

Asked if the Angels would be OK using Guerrero indefinitely as a DH only, Scioscia said, “We’re going to have to be.

“Obviously (it’s about) what Vlad brings to our team, and the lion’s share of what he brings is hitting right in the middle of the lineup and swinging the bat,” the manager said. “And if we can get that, it goes a long way to building an offense.

“We’ll take it one step at a time. If it’s something where he’s limited to that role, we obviously have enough (outfield) depth to work around that.”
Fantasy Impact: Typically a visit to Dr. Yocum means something serious, but that's with shoulder problems. A strained pec, which Vladdy says doesn't affect his swing, doesn't sound like as big a problem. Then again, Guerrero is leaving the team to make this visit, signaling a potential escalating problem. If the injury doesn't bother his swing, and he can DH all season long, why does he need to take time off to see Yocum?

We're expecting Guerrero to miss some significant time -- maybe as much as a 15-day disabled list stint. Maybe more.

Alex Gordon disabled

Alex Gordon returned from his right hip problem only to suffer further trouble with the injury. He's going on the disabled list with a cartilage tear, and the injury requires surgery. There's no word on his eventual return.

***Update -- 8:39 p.m. CST -- Gordon tore the hip labrum, and he's visiting the same Vail, Colorado doctor who performed surgery on Alex Rodriguez.

Fantasy Impact: Mike Aviles and Mark Teahen played some third with Gordon on the shelf. We'll assume Teahen takes over full-time until Gordon can return. With surgery you have to expect he'll miss at least a couple of months. That's territory for a potential release in fantasy play as Gordon hasn't produced at all this season.

Ross is boss for a day

Cody Ross finally found his power stroke in Atlanta. Ross poked his first home run of the 2009 season, going 3-3 with 4 RBI to push Florida past Atlanta. He's hitting .207 this season after batting .260 with 22 home runs in 2008.

Fantasy Impact: Ross is a full-time starter, but he's a lower-end option in fantasy play. His batting average isn't impressive, he doesn't run and he hits near the bottom of the Florida order. That means his run and RBI totals won't compare to middle-of-the order types at his position. Ross strikes out about a quarter of the time, and he produced a paltry .313 OBP in 2008. He's a stopgap option if one of your slugging starters goes down.

Aramis back, but is the back bad?

Aramis Ramirez returned to the Cubs lineup after back stiffness kept him out of a pair of games against Colorado. During his first at bat, Cubs announcer Len Kasper said Ramirez's back problems actually lingered throughout the spring.

Fantasy Impact: It's not the best news when one of the top five players at a position is dealing with a potentially chronic ailment. If Ramirez continues to miss starts here and there, he becomes an injury-risk starter whose value decreases. We still forecast Ramirez right behind A-Rod, David Wright, Evan Longoria and Miguel Cabrera (who still has eligibility this season) at third. Chipper Jones and Garrett Atkins are his primary competitors as potential top-five players at the hot corner.

Ballpark factor in fantasy baseball

Eric Walker takes a look at the difficulty of analyzing ballpark data and how statistics struggle to help make definite conclusions on the nature of a baseball stadium.

I appreciate Walker's analysis that analysis is inherently flawed. I've always believed that the players playing in the ballpark affect the statistics the park produces more than the stadium itself. Petco Park, for example, cannot escape the fact that the Padres will play in all 81 games she houses in a given year. To compare how Padre players perform at home vs. on the road is not necessarily going to give you good control data to make any conclusions, either. Some players play better on the road than at home in general. Some players play better at night than in day games. Some players randomly produce differently in different places from year to year.

Hoffman throws off mound; closer by committee in Milwaukee?

Trevor Hoffman threw off a mound on Wednesday, experiencing no issues with the oblique injury that sidelined him late in spring training.
"It's good to be back on the slope," Hoffman said. "I didn't throw as many strikes as I would have liked, but I think the key was to come out of it pain-free."

Hoffman will throw off a mound again Saturday in New York. The next step after that is to be determined, according to manager Ken Macha, but Hoffman indicated that he could join the Triple-A Nashville Sounds in Memphis as early as Tuesday to begin a Minor League rehabilitation assignment.
That means Hoffman is at least 10 days away from returning to the big leagues.

Fantasy Impact: The Brewers don't have a great option at closer after Hoffman. They need him back. Manager Ken Macha suggested that a few Brewers relievers might get chances to close games alongside de facto closer Carlos Villanueva, who has struggled in the role. Macha mentioned Todd Coffey, Seth McClung and Mark DiFelice as pitchers throwing better than Villanueva right now.

Perez to push for closer role in STL

The St. Louis Cardinals have the most interesting bullpen in baseball. With the call-up of Chris Perez, St. Louis has three options for saves. Perez will battle Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin for the closer role while Kyle McClellan likely slides into the rotation in place of the injured Chris Carpenter.

Fantasy Impact: Get. Perez. Now. He's only 23, but he can bring the heat. Perez is the sexiest option between the three. Hold your breath and hope he can string together a few solid outings to inherit the role full-time. You'll be glad you took a chance on the future relief star.

Another pothole for Street

Huston Street entered a non-save situation against the Cubs in the ninth inning and turned the game into a save situation for Jason Grilli. Street offered up a home run to Derrek Lee and two more base runners before Grilli entered to close it out. Manager Clint Hurdle said he made the move to "put the game away." Not exactly a ringing endorsement for his closer.
"I'll be fine," Street said. "They're not all going to fall in. The truth is, when we win and I have a bad outing, I don't really care. I do care because my team needs me to start having good outings, but I'm going to have good outings."
Fantasy Impact: Opponents are hitting .533 against Street. Manny Corpas, available to pitch in the ninth, was not Hurdle's choice. The Rockies have issues at the back end of the bullpen that need to be sorted out. Street is the de facto closer until his problems push Corpas, or perhaps Grilli, into the fold.