Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Roll the dice on Daisuke

Daisuke Matsuzaka is finally throwing pitches this spring after a back injury derailed his schedule. His role is hardly defined with the Red Sox in 2010.
There’s no such chance, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona said with a smile that Dice-K is getting closer to at least throwing from a live pitcher’s mound, a first step toward getting him into what figures to be a healthy competition for the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs with Tim Wakefield [stats] and Clay Buchholz.

“Dice had a great day,” Francona said. “It was as good a day as he’s had. Toward the end of the week we’ll get him some mound work. What we’re trying to do is get him ready properly (for the season) and not have artificial deadlines.”
Fantasy Impact: Matsuzaka may be fighting for a rotation spot, but if he's right, he's almost certain to win a job. The 29-year-old right hander owns a 37-21 career record. He gives up base runners, and when he's off his game as he was in 2009, that can spell trouble. He may not open the year a part of the Red Sox rotation due to his slow start this spring, but he's still worth a sleeper pick in the middle to late rounds of any fantasy draft.

After all, Wakefield is only as good as his knuckleball and Buchholz has yet to put it all together for more than a short stretch at the major league level.

Jenks behind schedule despite improved health

At the start of spring training White Sox talk gravitated toward the subject of Bobby Jenks' weight loss. Now we learn that while Jenks may be more svelt this season, he's not on schedule at this point in spring training. Pitching coach Don Cooper isn't one to stress about Jenks.
''Because Bobby worked so hard on his conditioning, plus Bobby had another child, plus the weather in Chicago is bad,'' Cooper said. ''And he told me he had a little difficulty getting somebody to catch him. So he was just playing more catch than actually pitching off a mound. ''But one thing I know about Bobby, every year if you look back everybody is, 'Geez, we've got to get him in shape. Geez, he's not ready.' But when it came to Opening Day, he was always ready. I know he's going to be ready again.''
Fantasy Impact: The White Sox continue to have faith in Jenks, and until we see him falter and get pulled in favor of one of Chicago's many talented relievers, he's still worh a spot on a fantasy roster as a No. 2 closer. He's not the prettiest or safest acquisition, but he's steady enough going into the year.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

ESPN talks to Scout X

ESPN reports various musings from Scout X, a big-league scout with a couple of interesting considerations for the 2010 season. Among them:

He thinks Matt Cain has a better six- to eight-year outlook than Tim Lincecum.

He also likes Phil Hughes over Joba Chamberlain for Yankees fifth starter.

Nothing else really stands out.

Fantasy Impact: It's becoming fairly typical for those doubting the diminutive Lincecum and his unique pitching rotation. We still find the best analysis of his mechanics to be much less of an indictment than what the doubters are saying.

Hughes vs. Chamberlain is certainly a tossup. Neither is a good fantasy option due to their low sample size and MLB inconsistency, but they both deserve flier picks due to playing for the Yankess.

Reyes HGH concerns

Jose Reyes got a visit from the FBI regarding a doctor he worked with in connection with HGH.
“They asked me if he inject me with that, I said no,” Reyes said. “What we do there is basically is he took my blood out, put in some machine, spit it out and put it back into my leg.”

He was referring to a procedure that was intended to help him recover from a hamstring injury.

Reyes said that he met with the authorities for less than an hour and that he was surprised they wanted to meet with him.

“They called me in the morning and said they wanted to meet me,” Reyes said. “I mean, they said this is the F.B.I., and I said, man, what did I do wrong. I was kind of surprised a little, scared, but after that, they said should be no problem with me, it’s just an investigation. Right now I don’t worry because he don’t put nothing like that in my body. I know what he was doing with me, so I don’t have to worry about that because I know I’m fine.”
Fantasy Impact: It would not appear that Reyes is in much trouble, especially if the FBI actually told him there's not a problem. He remains the third best option at shortstop in fantasy baseball after Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. He has the opportunity to place as high as second if healthy.

Gutierrez could be D'backs future closer

The Arizona Diamondbacks like what they've seen from setup man Juan Gutierrez to the point that he might end up Arizona's closer next season. Chad Qualls is the incumbent in 2010.
Gutierrez's performance last year validated GM Josh Byrnes decision to trade former closer Jose Valverde to the Astros after the 2007 season for Gutierrez, Qualls and infielder Chris Burke. While Burke was a bust, Qualls has put together two good seasons and Gutierrez could conceivably slip into the closer's role if Qualls departs as a free agent following 2010.

"He's always had plus stuff, very solid delivery and arm action and multiple pitches," Byrnes said. "He has a lot of pieces in place to be successful. You hoped it would translate, and now that he's had success, he can build off that."

Which is exactly what Gutierrez is trying to do.

"I learned more about how to pitch last year," he said. "I learned how to control your emotions. When you have a bad day you've got to forget about it. You have to say this is a new day and I'm going to show the world what I have."
Fantasy Impact: There's a chance Gutierrez earns the job even sooner than 2011. Consider that Qualls is coming back off a serious injury sustained late in 2010, so he's not necessarily in baseball shape going into the year. Then, there's the chance that the Diamondbacks, who won't be picked any higher than third in the NL West this year, could be sellers come July. If Qualls is moved to a contending team, Gutierrez could be in line for as many as 15-20 saves over the latter half of the season. The D'backs bullpen is definitely one to monitor all summer long.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Brian Roberts' bad back

Brian Robers is still hopeful to be ready for opening day, but the Orioles second baseman's health is in question after revealing he was diagnosed with a herniated disc this offseason.
"I'm not a doctor, so I don't know the repercussions of what certain things are, but, yeah, I think anytime you hear 'disk' and you hear 'back,' it's certainly frightening," Roberts said after doing a light workout. "We tried to do our due diligence and be seen by the right people and get the right advice. I think we did that, and now we're moving forward. It's going to be a little slow probably at the beginning, but it shouldn't set me back hopefully for [Opening Day] on April 6."

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said the club isn't concerned because Roberts has already responded well to medication and treatment.

Head athletic trainer Richie Bancells "has explained it to me that these are things that 90 percent of the time resolve themselves," MacPhail said. "As long as the symptoms keep improving, which they have with Brian, there really isn't anything for us to be alarmed about. We have a lot of time. We have six weeks. The position players aren't the same as pitchers in terms of getting ready, so there really isn't any concern amongst our group."
Then again, Roberts isn't your typical position player. Spring training will tell if Roberts can handle the demands of second base and still put together a productive offensive game that includes stealing bases.

Fantasy Impact: Roberts may say he can go, and the Orioles might be hopeful that he'll play to his all-star calibur, but fantasy owners should take note. We assume Roberts will drop from his standing as one of the top options off the board in a fantasy draft. Here's our second base rankings before and after learning of Roberts' bad back:

Before:
Chase Utley
Ian Kinsler
Aaron Hill
Dustin Pedroia
Ben Zobrist
Robinson Cano
Brian Roberts
Gordon Beckham
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla

After:

Chase Utley
Ian Kinsler
Aaron Hill
Dustin Pedroia
Ben Zobrist
Robinson Cano
Gordon Beckham
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla
Brian Roberts
Jose Lopez
Rickie Weeks
Martin Prado

We now slot Roberts as the 10th most productive second baseman after Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla and just ahead of the versatile Jose Lopez. Roberts has two things against him now - he's 32, meaning his best days (especially as a player whose game is predicated on speed) are beginning to get behind him, and he's dealing with an injury. We'll take guaranteed production from Phillips' and Uggla's potent bats over a guy with a probable bad back who needs his body in optimal shape to produce.

Rodney doesn't want Fuentes' hectic job

Fernando Rodney is saying the right things after joining the Los Angeles Angels. He's not interested in Brian Fuentes' closing job, the one Fuentes says is supposed to be difficult.
Fuentes admits he gave fans reason to be nervous and says his performance last year was "probably not as strong" as he would like.

"I could have been more consistent," Fuentes said. "It's definitely not easy to close out a game but I definitely think I shouldn't have had as low a percentage as I did. I'd like to have had fewer blown saves and been more consistent."

It might have helped if Fuentes had been able to throw a little harder. Early last season, it was obvious his velocity was down, an occurrence that Angels manager Mike Scioscia dismissed as fairly typical for Fuentes and something that would pass as the season went on.

It never did.

"I don't think it ever really came around," Fuentes said, an opinion that is backed up by the numbers.

A study by www.fangraphs.com pegged Fuentes' average fastball in 2009 as being down 1.6 miles per hour from 2008 (when he averaged 92.5 mph) though Fuentes referred to a 4 mph drop. It was one of the biggest drops in baseball last season.
Fuentes says he's not worried so much about his velocity. Mike Scioscia says Fuentes is the man at closer.

Fantasy Impact: We're not so worried about Fuentes losing his job to Fernando Rodney. We'd be just as concerend for him to lose it to Scot Shields, who may prove to be the most productive member of the Angels' relief staff. Fuentes may have job security now, but that's because he hasn't yet thrown a pitch. We expect another rocky road for him late in games in 2010. Velocity is not something 35-year-old pitchers find to improve.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Jenks in shape

White Sox closer Bobby Jenks credits better living in general as the reason for his shaping up for spring training.
"It was a lot of things," said the 6-foot-4 Jenks, who weighed in Sunday at 275 pounds. "Not drinking helps. But really it was a lifestyle choice I wanted to make -- not just for myself but for my family.

"The drinking part was hard. It was up to me to get motivated. That was the tough part. But once you did, it was easy.''

Jenks said he resumed eating smarter "like I used to.''
Those 275 lbs are not a misprint. That was Jenks listed weight last year, which appeared kind from the growth of his belly over the past couple of years.

Fantasy Impact: Jenks' numbers weren't all that bad last year. With an 8.3 K/9 rate, he posted one of the better strikeout ratios of his career. He still saved plenty of games to start for your fantasy team, and he was never in any real danger of losing his job, although that was speculated in late summer. Jenks was just a bit more hittable. It seemed that he wore down in stretches and left the ball over the plate. A little less body to get in the way and a little more focus should keep him a solud bet as a No. 2 closer. That said, J.J. Putz and others are lurking in potentially the deepest bullpen in baseball.

Damon will bat second, Jackson to lead off

Talk that Johnny Damon might threaten rookie Austin Jackson as Tigers leadoff man should disappear for a while now that Tigers manager Jim Leyland says Damon will start off in the No. 2 spot. That gives Jackson the opportunity to take the top spot and run with it.

Fantasy Impact: There's a reason the Yankees gave up Jackson in pursuit of Curtis Granderson - he's young and hasn't taken a single at bat at the major league level. Not only is he unproven, Jackson's minor league stats don't exactly knock you over. He's good, but he's not off-the-page good. Despite his athletic ability and decent size, Jackson slugged just .405 at Triple-A last season. To expect any kind of MLB power surge is silly. He's a good base stealer, but strikes out quite a bit (22 percent of the time in Triple-A last season).

At best, this makes Jackson a late-round sleeper pick in fantasy drafts. We may know more by the end of spring, but Jackson needs to show us something at the major league level before we'd be willing to trust him. Think Carlos Gomez. Don't think Andrew McCutchen.

Myers looking to prove Phils wrong

Astros starter Brett Myers reiterates that he'd like to stick it to the Phillies (in a funny way) for leaving him off last year's postseason roster and his eventual release.
"That would be nice. And I'd like to stick it up their rear end. Just because, you know?" he said happily. "It's just the competitive nature. It's my old team. And I want to beat 'em. I think every guy has incentive to beat his former team. It doesn't have anything to do really with the way they treated me or anything like that. They didn't treat me bad at all. It doesn't have anything to do with that. It just has to do with being competitive and trying to kick their rear end just for the sport of it and try to have fun with it."

On the day he was formally introduced at a news conference in Houston he made similar comments. It got back to him that his remarks were not well-received in Philadelphia.

"If anybody takes that wrong I'm sorry, but that's not the way it's supposed to be meant," he said. "It's supposed to be meant that I want to kick their rear end. And they expect that. I told Ruben that. Whoever I sign with after this, if I pitch against y'all, the old movie, "Major League," my favorite one. You take the ball and fire it off the locker and go, 'Every time I pitch against you I'm going to stick it up your bleepin' bleep.' You know?

"I've always wanted to say that to somebody. In a funny way, though. Because I would think they'd know what I was talking about. I thought that would be funny. But evidently they took it the wrong way up there. People were calling me and saying, 'Why did you say bad things about the city of Philly?' I said, 'I never did and I never will.' "
One thing is for certain; someone is definitely going to take his comments the wrong way.

Fantasy Impact: The Astros signed Myers for $3 million this season, which is a great bargain for a guy with his talents. Between Myers and Wandy Rodriguez, two-thirds of the front of Houston's rotation costs $8 million in 2010. That's incredibly good money-wise, but still not that impressive a rotation. Myers owns a 73-63 career record but the 4.40 career ERA is fairly mid-level, and he gives up a lot of home runs. That's not good in Minute Maid Park. We don't expect a ton of success, even if he's motivated. Myers should hover in the average-to-above pile, which leaves him on the back end of most fantasy baseball starting staffs or just off them, on the waiver wire.

Storen headed to minors?

Washington Nationals manager Jim Riggleman says closer-in-waiting Drew Storen is likely headed for the minors out of spring training.
"Storen did pitch some in the Minor Leagues last year, but we respect the development system and the great staff we have in the Minor Leagues," Riggleman said. "We would probably lean toward starting him down there, but you hear such great things about what he has done -- his delivery, his strike throwing, he has a put-away breaking ball. We are open minded."
Fantasy Impact: We like Storen's makeup, especially his 11.9 K/9. If the Nationals struggle to find a reliable closer at the MLB level he might still be in the mix. Riggleman sounds noncommittal if anything.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Oswalt feeling fine

Roy Oswalt says his back is feeling better this season, and he expects a better effort than his career-worst 2010.
Oswalt, who posted an 8-6 record with career-highs in ERA (4.12) and no-decisions (16), did alter his conditioning routines during the offseason.

He has focused more on core strengthening exercises and less on running, favoring cardio and bike exercises instead.

This year, he also doesn't have to worry about the World Baseball Classic, which is believed to have contributed to Oswalt's back issues.

“I started throwing a little later this year,” Oswalt said . “I don't have to worry about getting some guys out from Japan and Korea.”
Fantasy Impact: He's a former elite fantasy option who hasn't come close to 20 wins or 200 strikeouts since 2005. He has, however, won as many as 17 and 15 games for average to slightly-above average Astros teams in recent seasons. Our bet is on Oswalt to bounce back with around 15 wins and an ERA a few tenths above his 3.23 career mark. He might not be a true strikeout pitcher anymore, but he's still an asset as a third starter on most fantasy teams.

Frank talk on Franklin

The Cardinals are looking at some young pitchers as fallback options for closer Ryan Franklin. The 37-year-old Cardinals closer had a career year in 2009, one we don't expect him to duplicate or even approach. Even Franklin is backing the backup idea.
Franklin, a first-time All-Star last year whose ERA hovered around 1.00 until early September, welcomes the help. He called it a "good idea" and said he just wanted to be part of a winning team.
Fantasy Impact: We're not high on Franklin moving forward, but he's on a good team and he pitched well for the majority of last season. Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs get mentions in the article, and they seem like potential options as the next guys in line. Boggs might end up the Cardinals fifth starter, although Dave Duncan seemingly likes him in a relief role. Motte got first crack as Cardinals closer last season, and failed rather obviously. Franklin is the guy going into the season, but his grasp on the closer role is less than dead-bolt. Let's be honest, teams don't talk about backing up a closer unless they assume they might have to do exactly that.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Mike Gonzalez named Orioles closer

Mike Gonzalez learned he will be the Orioles closer from manager Dave Trembley. That means Jim Johnson will be back in his usual setup role in 2010.
"It definitely tells a whole lot about Trembley and the type of man he is," said Gonzalez, who has 54 career saves, including 10 last year with the Atlanta Braves. "Him knowing that I've obviously been there and done that and obviously I know what I signed for, but hearing that from his mouth and the way he spoke obviously speaks wonders for him as a person and as a manager. It's just an extra respect that you get because he actually comes and sits down and has a talk with you and lets you know where things are going."

Trembley said he felt that it was important to make the official announcement early and begin the process of "slotting everybody else in the bullpen accordingly."
Fantasy Impact: Gonzalez was speculated to win the job, and now he has without much if any competition. The Braves entrusted him with the job only as often as the matchups were in his favor, and the lefty got the job done more often than not. We'll have to see if he fares well in save chances against predominantly right-handed hitters. He might not get the save opportunities pitching for a non-contending Orioles team. Johnson certainly won't now that he's back to setting up.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Cold stops Soriano's first TB outing

The guy who is supposed to stop the revolving door as Rays closer fell sick in his first trip to the hill in 2010. Rafael Soriano only has a chest cold.
Manager Joe Maddon said it was "no cause for concern," and that he was impressed Soriano came out on the field at all. Soriano said it was not a big deal, something he'd had before at the start of camp: "I think it was just too cold for me."

Besides, he said, he doesn't need much work in the spring, planning to wait until next week to throw his first bullpen session and working in only 7-8 games. He said he threw a few bullpen sessions before leaving the Dominican Republic and felt "great."
Fantasy Impact: None. Soriano should be ready to go soon, and he's likely to win the Rays closer job as he's getting paid $7.25 million this year to do exactly that.

Branyan signs with Indians, could cause fantasy ripple effect

The Indians landed cornerman Russell Branyan, signing him to a one-year, $2 million deal. He can slug with the best of them - as evidenced by his 31 homers and .520 SLG, but he's only played more than 100 games three times in his 12-year career.

Fantasy Impact: We can only believe Branyan decided to sign with Cleveland because he has a good shot at starting. With Jhonny Peralta at third and Matt LaPorta at first, Branyan could diminish both players' opportunities in 2010. He's certainly a much-needed power source on a team with a lot of offensive question marks. Fantasy owners hoping LaPorta and Peralta could come through with productive seasons will now have to temper their enthusiasm.

If Branyan takes over predominantly at first LaPorta may need to find at bats in left field, which could reduce the impact of youngster Michael Brantley. That becomes abundantly clear if Grady Sizemore ends up the Cleveland leadoff hitter. The again, if Travis Hafner struggles to hit consistently or merely stay healthy, somebody will take over his spot as DH. The sorting will occur over the next six weeks and probably into the regular season.

Feliz as a starter? Wilson, too?

Neftali Feliz will in fact get a look as a starter for the Rangers this preseason, potentially ending immediate interest in his closer-in-waiting status. With Frank Francisco's designs on the closer role, setup man C.J. Wilson looks to earn a shot as a rotation guy, too.
"It's no secret I don't think I should be limited to the set-up role. I have too many weapons," Wilson said. "Here is the reality. It is real simple. There are not very many guys that have the stuff that I do that would be willing to sign here if they were free agents. There is no experienced pitcher that has my stuff that would sign here, historically."
Fantasy Impact: These two setup men are going up against a competitive group of pitchers for the fourth and fifth spots in the Rangers rotation. Texas has more good arms than perhaps ever before. If either Wilson or Feliz makes the rotation, their value can skyrocket to potential breakthrough sleepers.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Reds pitching updates

2008 pitching phenom Edinson Volquez is progressing well from "Tommy John" surgery, but he won't be ready until at least midseason.

Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, who is said to be able to touch 100 mph on the radar gun, has been given a "pitching plan" for the spring, whatever that means. Doesn't everyone have a plan?

The 22-year-old is considered to be a candidate for Cincinnati's final rotation spot along with six other pitchers.

Fantasy Impact: Chapman sounds like a raw thrower who needs to learn to pitch. His spring development will be interesting to follow.

Volquez's situation is intriguing. Many prognosticators believe he'll be able to make an impact down the stretch. Volquez, however, struggled with his command in his breakout 2008 and wore down in the final months of the season. He's talented but raw, and a long layoff may require some time before he's in control of his very good stuff.

Matsuzaka's sore back

Daisuke Matsuzaka is suffering from what the Red Sox hope is a minor upper back problem. The issue started last Friday, and Matsuzaka hasn't resumed working out since. He's scheduled for a spring physical this Friday which could clear him to resume preparing for the 2010 season immediately.

Fantasy Impact: Matsuzaka had already earned sleeper status thanks to his disastrous 2009, a season in which he only starter 12 games and posted four wins to go along with a 5.76 ERA. The World Baseball Classic was blamed, in part, for Matsuzaka's struggles. After an early start to last season or that competition, it appears the Red Sox will baby him through any early issues this spring. No doubt that will scare away fantasy owners thinking he's now completely damaged goods. At age 30 Matsuzaka still slots as a good No. 3 pitcher in fantasy, and if he slips even further in a draft, take him. We're expecting much better things in 2010.

Verducci effect

Tom Verducci's 10 young pitchers at risk of a blowout include Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez, two guys who had hugely impressive 2009 seasons. Funny that Joba Chamberlain and Max Scherzer made the list. They've already experienced arm troubles.

Dodgers fifth starter candidates

The Dodgers have no less than eight candidates for their fifth starter spot, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. The list includes current and former prospects and major- and minor-league journeymen. Here's our best guess at the initial pecking order this spring:

James McDonald - 26-year-old talent struggled as a starter last year
Scott Elbert - 25-year-old prospect could replace McDonald in bullpen role
Eric Stults - Potential default option, but unimpressive career numbers
Russ Ortiz - Hasn't put together a complete season since winning 15 games in 2004
Charlie Haeger - Knuckleballer with little upside
Carlos Monasterios - Solid minor league control pitcher
Josh Towers - Unlikely candidate who pitched in two games in the majors last year
Ramon Ortiz - Hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007

Fantasy Impact: McDonald looked good out of the Dodgers bullpen last season, but he had rotation written all over him before reaching the majors. You'd expect the Dodgers to take a long look at him this spring. Elbert's injury-plagued past could lessen his chances as a rotation guy, and nobody else exactly jumps off the page. If the youngsters and journeymen struggle, Russ Ortiz or Ramon Ortiz could play caretaker for all or part of the season. The Dodgers should be good in 2010, so the fifth starter could provide some helpful numbers in deeper fantasy leagues. If McDonald or Elbert wins the job, they could be in line for a breakout season. Consider those two sleepers if they make the rotation.

Hanrahan elbow ailing

Pirates reliever Joel Hanrahan will undergo an MRI on Tuesday to check out his ailing throwing elbow. Hanrahan will also visit Dr. James Andrews, which is rarely a good sign. Hanrahan looks like he may miss opening day.

Fantasy Impact: Hanrahan appeared to have an outside chance to beat Octavio Dotel for the Pirates closing job. His chance appears to be shot.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Banking on Blanks

Padres gigantic first-baseman-turned-outfielder Kyle Blanks used the offseason to slim down a bit.
If you haven’t seen No. 8 of late, he’s still fairly easy to find. Yet dietary discipline and workout routine have trimmed Blanks’ 6-foot-6 physique from 288 pounds to, as of yesterday morning, a comparatively compact 273.

He’s still enormous, but plainly leaner. Like one of the Alps after an avalanche.

“He’s not going to be modeling Calvin Klein underwear any time soon,” said Jim Malone, the Padres’ strength and conditioning coach, “(But) When he walked in here a few weeks ago, he looked great. He’s definitely stronger ... probably stronger than he realizes.”
Blanks produced impressive numbers in his first stint in the majors last year, sluging .514 with an OPS of .868 in just 148 at bats.

Fantasy Impact: Blanks needed to slim down for two reasons. First, he needed to get a little lighter on his feet after a bout with plantar fasciitis in 2009. Second, he needed to improve his agility for a potentially full-time opportunity in the Padres outfield. By all accounts, San Diego wants him to succeed.

Offensively, Blanks' impressive numbers - a home run every 14.8 at bats - get that much more impressive when you look back at his offensive production and consistency in the minors. He actually slugged nine points higher at the MLB level than he had in the minors, and while his MLB batting average (.250) lagged behind his minors career mark by .53 points and even his Triple-A average by 33 points, he still showed excellent plate discipline. Blanks reached base at Triple-A last season at an outstanding .393 clip, and while that mark fell to .355 at the MLB level, he still reached base at a mark .105 above his batting average - an improvement over his minor league numbers.

Blanks will still have to prove he can get the job done in left field for the Padres this season, and he's got to put up numbers for a full season. The 42nd round draft pick always outplayed his draft number on his way through the Padres' minor league system, so there's no reason to believe he can't contribute to a fantasy roster. We'll recommend him as a No. 3 outfielder for 2010 who has a chance to produce as a No. 2 with a successful sophomore campaign.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Bergesen's bum shoulder

The Orioles will slow the start of spring training for second-year pitcher Brad Bergesen after Bergesen injured his throwing shoulder in an offseason team commercial.
Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said he is not overly concerned about the setback.

"He did too much too soon, which isn't terribly uncommon. And we expect he'll be ready by Opening Day, maybe be a week or so behind in spring training," he said. "So it wasn't something totally alarming to us, if it works out as we anticipate it will."

MacPhail added, however, that the club will monitor such commercial shoots more closely in the future.

"We have already made some adjustments in terms of making sure we have medical personnel or baseball personnel present for anything we do in the future."
Great idea.

Fantasy Impact: Bergesen was slated anywhere from Baltimore's third to fifth starter. He's more polished than youngsters Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman, but he's not as physically gifted. He doesn't have as much experience as Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie, but he had more success in limited action last year. Bergesen's 7-5 record and 3.43 record with just 65 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings speaks to his ability to pitch. He'll need to be monitored through the spring, but he could emerge as a decent fantasy option if he bounces back from the shoulder injury and the Orioles provide him runs.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Takahashi clouds Mets 5th starter choice

With the Mets close on a deal with Japanese lefty Hisanori Takahashi, their fifth starter slot becomes a bit more complicated. Previously, the Mets had youngster Johnathon Niese and journeyman Fernando Nieve fighting for the final rotation spot. Now Takahashi makes three.

Fantasy Impact: It would appear Niese will get a long look this spring. He suffered a torn hamstring in just his 5th major league start last season but posted a 3.82 ERA and strikeout ratio of 7.8/9 innings in Triple-A at age 22. An injury also ended Nieve's solid 2009 season, where he was 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA. Pedestrian walk and strikeout numbers at both the MLB and minor league levels, however, make him less of an interest than Niese in fantasy play should he win the job this spring.

The New York Times reports Takahashi's numbers as both good and less-good over his career in Japan's Central League, but his makeup is not all that impressive.
He is listed at 5 feet 10 inches and 172 pounds and is said to throw 86 to 90 miles an hour. He has five pitches, all of which he uses at various points in the count to keep hitters off balance, and he does not shy away from challenging hitters.
Soon to be 35, Takahashi signed just a $1M contract that is incentive-laden, which means the Mets are not necessarily expecting to find him in their rotation.

We'll lean on Niese as the likeliest starter of the three, placing our bet on Takahashi to have the upper hand on the spot if the Mets want more of a veteran in the role come opening day. Nieve looks destined for middle relief.

Starting Farnsworth

The Kansas City Royals will be trying Kyle Farnsworth out as a starter in spring training. Farnsworth hasn't thrown regularly in a rotation since his first two seasons with the Cubs. He's turning 34 this season and hasn't reached 100 innings at the big league level since his rookie season.

Fantasy Impact: He's a flier as a starter, at best. Farnsworth actually has a decent shot of sticking in the rotation - not because he's good enough to do it, but because the Royals' starting pitching is lacking enough to consider him. Farnsworth's mid-4 ERA the past several seasons is nothing impressive, but he can help with strikeout totals thanks to a career ratio of better than one per inning. He'll still be an afterthought in most fantasy leagues and is better left undrafted.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Wang to Nationals?

With the Dodgers opting out, there don't seem to be many options for free agent Chien-Ming Wang. It appears the Washington Nationals like their chances of signing the former Yankee.

Fantasy Impact:
The Nationals look like they have just two locks for their starting rotation in 2010: John Lannan and Jason Marquis. After the two top, nobody impresses outside of 21-year-old phenom Stephen Stasburg. With those kind of factors in the equation, it's not a reach to project Wang in the top three of the Nationals rotation. He's a good sleeper pick in fantasy, and might be even more solid an option than that. Wang posted solid numbers up to his recent injury-filled 2008 and 2009. If he's healthy, there's no reason to believe in a competitive ERA and WHIP for a fantasy starter. He won't come close to his back-to-back 19-win season with the Yankees, but 10 victories and better-than-average numbers across the board make him a No. 5 starter on any fantasy roster.

2009 MLB Closers

MLB closer report updated 2/10/10 @ 10:22 AM CST

***For 2010, please see 2010 MLB Closers***


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List of MLB closers and candidates at the close of the 2009 season. Closers are listed at the top under each team name:

Arizona Diamondbacks:
Chad Qualls - 60-day DL, dislocated left knee cap (August 31)
Juan Gutierrez
Esmerling Vasquez
Clay Zavada (L)

Atlanta Braves:
Rafael Soriano
Mike Gonzalez
Peter Moylan
Eric O'Flaherty (L)

Baltimore Orioles:
Jim Johnson
Danys Baez
Chris Ray
Cla Meredith

Boston Red Sox:
Jonathan Papelbon
Billy Wagner (L)
Takashi Saito
Hideki Okajima (L)

Chicago Cubs:
Carlos Marmol
Kevin Gregg
Angel Guzman
John Grabow (L)

Chicago White Sox:
Bobby Jenks
Matt Thornton (L)
Octavio Dotel
Scott Linebrink
Tony Pena

Cincinnati Reds:
Francisco Cordero
Arthur Rhodes (L)
Nick Massett

Cleveland Indians:
Kerry Wood
Chris Perez
Joe Smith

Colorado Rockies:
Huston Street
Rafael Betancourt
Franklin Morales (L)
Matt Daley
Manny Corpas - 15-day DL, right elbow surgery (might be out for season)
Alan Embree (L) - 15-day DL, fractured right tibia (out for season)

Detroit Tigers:
Fernando Rodney
Brandon Lyon
Bobby Seay (L)
Joel Zumaya - 60-day DL, right shoulder soreness (July 18)

Florida Marlins:
Leo Nunez
Matt Lindstrom
Dan Meyer (L)
Kiko Calero
Scott Proctor - 60-day DL, right elbow surgery (out for season)

Houston Astros:
Jose Valverde
LaTroy Hawkins
Doug Brocail
Jeff Fulchino

Kansas City Royals:
Joakim Soria
Juan Cruz
Kyle Farnsworth

Los Angeles Angels:
Brian Fuentes
Jason Bulger
Kevin Jepsen
Darren Oliver (L)
Scot Shields - 60-day DL, left knee surgery (out for season)

Los Angeles Dodgers:
Jonathan Broxton
George Sherrill (L)
Ramon Troncoso
Guillermo Mota
Hong-Chih Kuo (L)

Milwaukee Brewers:
Trevor Hoffman
Todd Coffey
David Weathers
Mitch Stetter (L)
Mark DiFelice

Minnesota Twins:
Joe Nathan
Matt Guerrier
Jon Rauch
Pat Neshek - 60-day DL, right elbow surgery - out for season
Jose Mijares (L)

New York Mets:
Francisco Rodriguez
J.J. Putz - 60-day DL, right elbow surgery (out for season)
Pedro Feliciano (L)
Brian Stokes
Sean Green

New York Yankees:
Mariano Rivera
Phil Hughes
Brian Bruney
Phil Coke (L)
Damaso Marte (L)

Oakland Athletics:
Andrew Bailey
Brad Ziegler
Michael Wuertz
Santiago Casilla
Joey Devine - 60-day DL, out for season (April 4)

Philadelphia Phillies:
Brad Lidge
-or- Ryan Madson
Brett Myers
J.C. Romero (L) - 15-day DL, strained left forearm (July 23)

Pittsburgh Pirates:
Matt Capps
Joel Hanrahan
Tyler Yates - 15-day DL, right elbow surgery - out for season (May 16)

St. Louis Cardinals:
Ryan Franklin
Jason Motte
Kyle McClellan
Denny Reyes (L)

San Diego Padres:
Heath Bell
Edward Mujica
Luke Gregerson

San Francisco Giants:
Brian Wilson
Sergio Romo
Jeremy Affeldt (L)
Bob Howry
Merkin Valdez

Seattle Mariners:
David Aardsma
Mark Lowe
Sean White
Miguel Batista

Tampa Bay Rays:
Troy Percival - 15-day DL, right shoulder tendinits (May 22)
J.P. Howell (L)
Randy Choate (L)
Dan Wheeler
Grant Balfour
Jason Isringhausen - 60-day DL, torn right elbow ligament (June 14)

Texas Rangers:
Frank Francisco
C.J. Wilson (L)
Eddie Guardado (L)
Neftali Feliz

Toronto Blue Jays:
Jason Frasor
Scott Downs (L)
Brandon League
Jesse Carlson

Washington Nationals:
Mike MacDougal
Sean Burnett (L)
Tyler Clippard
Ron Villone

Thursday, September 3, 2009

San Jose wants the A's

Major League Baseball hasn't told San Jose whether it wants to seriously consider moving the A's to town, so the city continues to pursue the idea with a report that says a Major League baseball team makes sense for the area.

Who's not in favor of moving a team to where it is most wanted? Since San Jose is in the Giants' backyard, their "nay" vote doesn't count.

Closers on the cheap

Doug Miller of MLB.com writes up the pleasant surprises at closer in 2009. These are guys who weren't expected to jump into a saves role and exceeded expectations at great values. They are:

David Aardsma, SEA ($419K in 2009/33 saves)
Ryan Franklin, STL ($2.5M in 2009/36 saves)
Frank Francisco, TEX ($1.615M in 2009/22 saves)
Jonathan Broxton, LAD (1.825M in 2009/30 saves)
Heath Bell, SD ($1.255M in 2009/33 saves)
Andrew Bailey, OAK ($400K in 2009/21 saves)

Fantasy Imapct: Aardsma, Franklin and Bailey could all be had off the waiver wire in fantasy baseball this season. Broxton, Bell and Francisco were likely drafted in most leagues. Certainly, all six of these pitchers provided value over and above their salaries for big league clubs, but in fantasy play, Aardsma, Franklin and Bailey provide the kind of steals that can push a team over the top to win a league title. There will be closers like them available again next year - pitchers like Brandon Lyon in Detroit, Neftali Feliz in Texas and Billy Wagner where ever he lands. Closers can always be found on the cheap in fantasy play.

Give 'em Hellickson

Wade Davis might be the Rays choice for their rotation heading down the stretch, but he's not the most exciting pitching prospect in the Rays system. Jeremy Hellickson is, and his minor league performance might force Tampa to bring him up as well.

Fantasy Impact: Davis, a third-round draft pick in 2004, posted a 3.40 ERA at Triple-A this year. He's a 6'5" hardballer who's struck out nearly a batter per inning over his minor league career. He has the potential to contribute immediately if he keeps his walks down. Hellickson's numbers are dominant at all levels. He strikes out better than a batter per inning, and he doesn't walk people. Davis is a nice pickup at this time for his potential. Here's hoping Hellickson gets to the Majors quickly or not at all. He's got a real shot to be a fantasy star, so it might be nice to keep him off the radar until early next year.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Marlins getting ugly

Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez got into it in the Marlins clubhouse Wednesday night. Uggla was apparently upset with Ramirez's lack of effort due to injuries that have been slowing him of late. Uggla also slugged his 25th homer, making him the first NL second baseman to hit at least 25 home runs in each of his first four seasons.

Fantasy Impact: Both players are fantasy assets, but both probably have underachieved a bit in 2009. Ramirez's .355 average can win him a batting title, but his 19 home runs are a touch below what fantasy owners were looking for. He's on pace for 100 RBI, but middle-of-the-order guys usually knock in more.

Uggla's sub .250 average is nothing special, but it wasn't exactly unexpected. He's a relatively early draft pick or keeper due to his pop at second, but a number of players broke out in 2009, including the Blue Jays' Aaron Hill and Rays' Ben Zobrist. Second base is no longer a position of offensive scarcity, meaning Uggla's value declines.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Not Meat - Mitre

Sergio Mitre carried a 6.82 ERA and 1.88 WHIP into play on Saturday and proceeded to improbably shut down the White Sox over 6 1/3 innings of one-hit baseball. The only thing that got to Mitre was an A.J. Pierzynski liner off his right forearm that caused the right hander to leave the game early. Mitre took X-rays at Yankee Stadium which turned out to be negative. The Yankees win, 10-0, and Mitre needed just 73 pitches to improve to 3-1.

Fantasy Impact: This outstanding effort gives Mitre a shot at remaining in the Yankees rotation moving forward, but because of the sudden injury concern, Mitre is not quite a fantasy option just yet. He'll need to prove he can bounce back from the injury and throw back-to-back quality starts before he can be relied on more than a flier option in a pinch.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Anibal is back

Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez is back in the Majors after missing over two months with a sprained shoulder. Sanchez produced mix results in two minor league starts during his rehab stint with Double-A Jacksonville.

Fantasy Impact: The former pitching prospect has always been considered worth a flier when returning from his various injuries, but Sanchez has pitched just 117 1/3 innings since his breakout year back in 2006. If you're desperate for pitching, give him a go, but Sanchez's 5.55 ERA over seven starts this year is not of much fantasy value.

Mauer the mauler

Joe Mauer may be on a tear like no one else right now, but he's going to have to keep it going full-throttle if he wants to hit .400. The Twins catcher batted .524 over his recent 15-game hitting streak, but he's 1-7 over his last two games. That's a .486 mark over his last 17 games. Baseball Musings projects Mauer must hit at least .451 the rest of the way to reach .400 for the season.

Fantasy Impact: There's no doubt Mauer is the best hitting catcher in baseball. His remarkable power surge (.648 SLG pct. in 2009 is 141 points over last season's mark) makes a good thing that much better. Mauer is such a complete hitter than a run at .400 is not out of the question, even if it's highly unlikely.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Wagging Wagner

The New York Mets pitched Billy Wagner for the first time in about a year, and the results look pretty good. Wagner works a two-strikeout eighth inning for the Mets against the Braves in a 3-2 loss. Wagner did not factor into the decision, but he did throw about as well as he possibly could, needing 14 pitches to retire the side.

Fantasy Impact: Francisco Rodriguez is the guy the Mets acquired to fill Wagner's spot, and he's going to remain the Mets closer as far as anyone can tell. Wagner is considered trade bait at this point of his Mets tenure. Pitch well enough, and perhaps a suitor comes along that is willing to take the remainder of his $10.5 M salary for this season and $8 M option for next season. If he continues to pitch this well, the Mets are more likely to find a trade partner, and Wagner's fantasy value may climb to that of a full-time closer in September.

J-Roll in a hole

The Phillies not only have a closer that can't close in Brad Lidge, but they also have a leadoff man who can't (or at least shouldn't) hit at the top of the order. That someone is Jimmy Rollins, who seemed to be a shoe-in as a top-flight shortstop this year. He's still an excellent option at the position, but with a batting average stuck in the .240s and an OBP just 50 points higher, Rollins is hitting like a No. 8 hitter. There are 14 Phillies getting on base more often than Rollins, and three of those players are pitchers. One of those pitchers, Cliff Lee, has just 45 career at bats. Another, Jamie Moyer, turns 47 in November.

Fantasy Impact: If you own Rollins, you've got to be thankful that Charlie Manuel is stubborn enough to keep his players in their assigned roles rather than the roles they're cut out for. Rollins benefits statistically from hitting at the top of the Phillies order. With better players hitting behind him, he stands a better chance of producing despite his struggles. We've been waiting for Rollins to turn things around all year. He's running out of time.

Readdressing Lee

Earlier this year we talked about the trouble in considering Cliff Lee a No. 1 starter in fantasy baseball. Several things contributed to our analysis that Lee should not be regarded as a top-flight pitcher, among them: an average K/9 rate and the dangerous afterglow following a career year.

All things change, however, and Lee's move to the National League has Spitting Seeds rethinking his value down the stretch. Lee tossed a stellar two-hit complete game on Wednesday, dropping his NL ERA to 0.72. Lee's K/9 has climbed by three full points to 9.3/9, putting him on par with elite-level pitchers. That's what a National League full of hitters that have rarely seen you can do for your numbers. Just ask CC Sabathia.

Fantasy Impact: Lee is back at fantasy ace status until further notice. He's 4-0 since joining the Phillies and will certainly get Cy Young consideration even with just a couple of full months in the NL.

Baseball labor peace in 2011?

It looks like there are no issues at this point for baseball's 2011 labor agreement, but with the two sides potentially not getting together until the months leading up to deal time, something could easily pop up. The Sporting News makes mention of owners potentially pushing for a salary cap.
The MLBPA, historically viewed as the strongest of all the major sports unions, has successfully beaten back efforts to install a cap system.

Nevertheless, MLB owners "have been trying for one for 20 years," said labor-side attorney James Quinn, outside counsel to the National Basketball Players Association and the NFL Players Association, who has worked for all four major players unions. "I am sure they will try again."
Here's wondering if the owners have a better shot at a cap in 2011 if the recession holds on for a couple more years. Certainly owners would argue from the standpoint that decreased revenue streams means a cap is necessary.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Indians Recall LaPorta

Hot prospect Matt LaPorta got his much anticipated recall to Cleveland. He takes the roster spot of an injured Trever Crowe and is expected to play regularly, but because of his shortcomings defensively at first in the minors, LaPorta's regular position remains an unknown.
"Anybody that goes over there goes through that," Wedge said. "It's a very underrated position. A lot goes on out there, and you need to know where you need to be."
Fantasy Impact: LaPorta ripped 17 home runs in 338 minor league at bats, so the Indians will find a spot for him. He hit a homer every 16 at bats while in the minors, and his .938 OPS in Triple-A is spectacular. He's poised to be a major contributor down the stretch. He's worth an add and maybe even a start immediately.

Cubs closer up for grabs

Update (8/19/09 @ 1:47 p.m.): Piniella ends up naming Marmol his closer. This is still a developing situation due to Marmol's erratic nature. Guzman should not be ignored in fantasy play, nor should Gregg, as either could be counted on for saves down the stretch.
---
Lou Piniella says he's considering removing Kevin Gregg from the Cubs closer role. The ESPN blurb mentions Carlos Marmol and Angel Guzman as candidates to close.

Fantasy Impact: Marmol is the more obvious choice from a fantasy standpoint, but he's been erratic this year. Marmol has struck out more than a batter per inning, but his 52 walks in 56 1/3 innings is not the stuff for finish off leads. Guzman's numbers are much more stable across the board, but with one career save and just 39 strikeouts in 52 innings, he also leaves something to be desired. This situation could result in Baltimore's George Sherrill removal earlier this year: the Orioles realized Sherrill was still the best option and continued to use him as closer shortly after his demotion. Sherrill is a much better pitcher than Gregg, however, so don't hold your breath on a similar result. Call it "closer by committee" for the Cubs. Marmol should get first shot.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Drew at the top

After slugging 21 homers to go along with a .291 average last season, Stephen Drew, like many of his Diamondbacks teammates, had struggled mightily this year. Now a move to the leadoff spot has rejuvenated his numbers.
He has hit safely in 23 of 25 games in the leadoff spot (35 for 112, .313) with 21 of his 54 runs scored, five of his 10 home runs, eight of his 24 doubles, four of his eight triples, and 16 of his 49 RBIs. "It's one of those things where you get comfortable as a hitter," said Drew, who also stole his fourth base of the season Monday. "And I feel real comfortable right now."
Fantasy Impact: Moving to the top spot in the order certainly limits RBI output, but batting anywhere in the order can do that to a player in Arizona. The D'backs are punchless outside of Mark Reynolds and now Drew. If Drew keeps things up, he's keep-able again in fantasy play.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Hunting for Hunter?

Angels manager Mike Scioscia left Torii Hunter out of the lineup on Monday, just one day after Hunter's sparkiling return from a strained right adducter injury that shelved him for 5 weeks. Hunter went 2-6 with a run and 2 RBI in 13 innings of baseball against the Orioles in that first game back. He sat out Tuesday merely for rest reasons and not because of any kind of reinjury.

Fantasy Impact: Hunter was on his way to a career year prior to going down. He's a nice outfielder to own in fantasy play. If he continues to play as well as he did over the first half, expect big things down the stretch.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Cup check, Beltre

Adrian Beltre might miss the remainder of the season after taking one where in counts and not counting on a protective cup.
Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu said the Gold Glove infielder is out indefinitely, and could need surgery because of bleeding in a testicle.

Beltre was walking stiffly with his legs far apart on Thursday before the Mariners hosted the New York Yankees. He was due to see a specialist, who will decide if surgery is needed.

"They don't want him doing anything, just sitting and resting and icing," Wakamatsu said of trainers.

"They say if it's a major surgery it could be at least a month, maybe more, so there's a chance of that. ... It's healing already, it's just a matter of whether they're going to have to go in and fix it surgically. We'll know shortly."
Fantasy Impact: Ouch! Especially ouch for fantasy owners enjoying Beltre's recent eight-game hitting streak. He's not the best offensive third baseman, so there are other options out there. In fact, Beltre's Thursday replacement filled in quite admirably. Josh Wilson produced the only Seattle run with a home run. He owns three homers over parts of three MLB seasons dating back to 2005. A lifetime .218 career hitter, Wilson won't make many fantasy rosters.

Don't snooze on Kouz

Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is potentially set to take off as a fantasy option after going 5-5 Thursday against the Brewers to up his average to .263. Kouzmanoff has 11 hits in his last three games. An adjustment in Kouzmanoff's hitting approach might be the difference.

Fantasy Impact: Maybe it's something in the water in Milwaukee. Kouzmanoff was hovering in the .240s before the hitting binge against the Brew Crew. Then again, the Padres teed off on Milwaukee as a whole, scoring 28 runs over three games. Therein lays the rub: did Kouzmanoff and the Padres hit this well, or did the Brewers actually pitch this poorly? Kouz hasn't produced to the levels of more stable third basemen over his three full seasons in the Majors, but he's not a terrible option. His numbers compare to a slightly less productive Joe Crede during Crede's better years with the White Sox. Kouzmanoff's strong defense (just three errors in 2009) will keep him in the lineup, too. He's a low-end option as a starter in fantasy play, but he's certainly good enough to be on your roster as a part-time player.

Matsui mashes two homers

Hideki Matsui continues to put together a solid season. The Yankees once-slugging outfielder is flashing power now and again this season, and doing it more often with his third and fourth home runs of August in an 11-1 Yankees whipping of the Mariners. Matsui goes 4-5 with 5 RBI and four runs scored.

Fantasy Impact: Left by many on the fantasy scrap heap for his injury risk and decreased production, Matsui has proven a decent option as a fourth outfielder. He's no longer the power threat he once was, but it's hard to scoff at 19 home runs and that band box the Yankees call home.

Jeter keeps ticking

Derek Jeter is OK. The Yankees shortstop, who left Wednesday's game after taking a pitch off his right foot for X-rays, only missed at bats Thursday because the Yankees blew away the Mariners, 11-1. Jeter found himself at the top of the Yankees order once again, slugging his 14th home run in a 2-4 effort at the plate. Jeter continues to produce as one of the top options at shortstop in fantasy play.

Fantasy Impact: The X-rays must have been precautionary in nature. The 35-year-old Jeter is putting together one of his classic all-around seasons at the top of the Yankees order. He's right there chasing Hanley Ramirez as arguably the next-best option at SS in fantasy play.

Another Hamilton multi-hit game

Josh Hamilton makes it eight multi-hit games the last ten times out, going 4-4 with 2 RBI and a run scored in a 4-1 Rangers win over the Indians. Hamilton rips two doubles, his 12th and 13th of the season, and he ups his average to .260, the high-point since a .263 spike on July 7th.

Fantasy Impact: The sign of things to come? The once substance-addicted outfielder has been under scrutiny for recently admitting to backsliding at least once this offseason. He did take responsibility for the episode with his team and then again with the media, but the issue doesn't help his image much. It's more likely Hamilton's injuries that kept him back this season.

Arroyo dominates

Bronson Arroyo strings together his fourth straight quality start, this time producing his best effort of the year. The reds starter tosses a complete-game shutout, two-hitting the Nationals on his way to his 11th victory. Maybe it's the supplements?

Fantasy Impact: This kind of performance by a mid- to low-end fantasy option is the kind of thing that earns owners a winning week. Arroyo is not, however, in the midst of some sort of awakening as a fantasy play. His first year back in the National League was the most impressive of his career (3.29 ERA/1.19 WHIP/.243 BAA), but since then his numbers have taken a steady rise. Arroyo's 1.40-plus WHIP ever since is the sign of an average pitcher potentially declining. He's avoidable, if possible despite the very occasional gem. If Major League teams take a pass, shouldn't you?

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Gomes goes yard three times

Reds outfielder Jonny Gomes slugs three home runs against the Nationals on Thursday, powering Cincinnati to a 7-0 victory. He's up to 14 homers on the season and is hitting .271.

Fantasy Impact: Power has never been a problem for Gomes, who's hit 21 and 20 home runs over more or less full seasons in the majors in years past. Consistency is a big problem. Gomes began getting regular at bats in the middle of July when reds youngster Jay Bruce hit the disabled list. Since then, Gomes' batting average had been in steady decline, going from .338 on July 1st to .259 the day before his home run binge. He's a stop-gap at best. His playing time will likely decrease come September 1st, when Bruce is expected to return, creating a logjam in the Cincinnati outfield.

Rodney in danger? Not quite

Fernando Rodney tosses a perfect, one-strikeout ninth for his 24th save, a 2-0 Tigers victory over the Red Sox. Despite just one blown save on the year, Rodney has his critics including this blogger, who all but forecasts Rodney's imminent ouster.

Fantasy Impact: The write-up on Rodney is speculative at best, as there are no news reports expecting his demise as Detroit closer. Setup man Brandon Lyon has pitched well since incorporating a cut fastball at the end of May. Sure, his numbers are better than Rodney's, but pitching the eighth is different from pitching the ninth, and managers tend to go with what the know over the unknown. What Jim Leyland knows is Rodney's gotten the job done in 2009. He's seen Lyon close a single game under his watch. Rodney's job is safe unless he comes unglued. Lyon owners will be on the short end of the save chances until then.

Running bases with Pods

Scott Podsednik might be know for his fleet feet, but the White Sox outfielder continues to make base running gaffes. Wednesday night in Seattle, Podsednik made it to third base with one out in the 10th in a 0-0 ballgame but proceeded to be picked off by Seattle catcher Rob Johnson. It wasn't even close. The White Sox eventually lost the game 1-0 in 14 innings.

Fantasy Impact: Pods is hitting .296 after a 2-6 effor against the Mariners. He's stolen 18 bases and scored 51 times this year, but none of his numbers are enough to make him a starter in fantasy play. He's a part-time player for his ability to steal bases and not hurt your team batting average. He should be losing time in the outfield now with Alex Rios on board with the White Sox.

Closers on the hot seat

KFFL considers Leo Nunez and Brad Lidge to be the closers closest to losing their jobs down the stretch. Kevin Gregg received what amounts to honorable mention for his recent struggles. Agreed.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Jeter X-ray negative

Derek Jeter suffered a right foot contusion when Toronto starter Ricky Romero hit him in Jeter's leadoff at bat. The injury didn't stop Jeter from getting around the bases as he scored the game's first run, but he did have to leave the game in the second after grounding out.

An X-ray showed no damage, but there is no word on Jeter's prognosis.

Fantasy Impact: The Yankees play Thursday night in Seattle. It may be wise to leave Jeter out of the lineup if possible.

Re-thinking throwing programs

Wonder how the Texas Rangers finally found success on the mound in 2009? Part of the answer comes with a reconfigured throwing program for Rangers pitchers.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Gonzalez goes gonzo without homering

Adrian Gonzalez exploited Brewers pitching, going 6-6 in a 13-6 Padres romp. Gonzalez doubled once to go along with five singles. He scored twice and knocked in three. Gonzalez's six hits are a career high.

Fantasy Impact: If there's a knock on Gonzalez in fantasy play, it's his mediocre batting average. After recording six hits that average climbs to an unimpressive .262. In all other offensive categories he remains a force. If he weren't playing half of his games at Petco Park and all of his days in San Diego's lineup, he might be one of the top first basemen in all of fantasy. Instead, he's a higher-end option with potential upside if he's traded or the Padres improve.

Youkilis-Porcello brawl

Kevin Youkilis looked like a blitzing linebacker tackling an unprotected quarterback Tuesday night, charging Detroit rookie Rick Porcello in the 2nd inning after Porcello hit him in the back. Both benches emptied, Youkilis and Porcello were ejected, and order was restored.

Porcello's pitch appeared to be retaliation for Boston starter Junichi Tazawa hitting Miguel Cabrera in the hand in the first inning, but the beanballs followed a Monday filled with hit batsmen between the two teams.

Fantasy Impact: Youkilis and Porcello face fines and suspensions, so you can expect to lose Youkilis for the better part of.a week and Porcello for a start. Youkilis' loss certainly hurts more. Porcello hasn't pitched well since a strong May.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Tigers battery a double positive

The youngest battery in the Majors proved effective the first time together as 20-year-old Rick Porcello wins his 10th game of the season and 22-year-old catcher Alex Avila goes 2-4 with a run scored and an RBI in his MLB debut. The Tigers rookies certainly helped the team to a 7-3 victory over Baltimore. Avila wasn't even expecting a call-up this year.

Fantasy Impact: Porcello is an own-able option as a starting pitcher, but Avila's situation is much more amorphous. The backstop might not get many chances at the MLB level with Gerald Laird ahead of him. Laird, however, hasn't hit much for the past month, making Avila worth watching in the case that he begins to steal Laird's playing time.

Porcello finally wins

Tigers rookie starter Rick Porcello wins his 10th game of the season, working 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a 7-3 victory against the Orioles. While it was just Porcello's second win since June 18th, the sinker-baller is still a fixture in Detroit's rotation. He's capable of a handful of more wins by season's end, giving the youngest player in the Majors a shot at 15 wins in his opening campaign.

Fantasy Impact: Porcello's ERA swelled almost a full point from the end of June through August 1st, but this outing was a half-step in the right direction. The 20-year-old is holding his own as a Major Leaguer, and he's proven very impressive over the course of 18 MLB starts. When the matchups are right, Porcello is a nice back-of-the-rotation option for any fantasy team.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Pablo's for real

Pablo Sandoval continues to rake to the point that he can be considered a baby Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder at this point in his young career. Like Pujols and Fielder, Sandoval is hitting a ton at a young age, upping his average to .334 with a 3-4, two run, two RBI effort in a 10-6 Giants win over the Astros. Sandoval knocked his 32nd double to go along with 17 home runs, and he's just about to turn 23 next week.

Fantasy Impact: The portly Sandoval doesn't run the bases very well (4 SB in 6 attempts), nor does he have much patience (22 BB in 386 AB), but he does hit exceptionally well. He poses an interesting dilemma as the trade deadline looms in most fantasy leagues: is the young player good enough to acquire and keep for an even better campaign next season, or is he playing a bit above his head? Well, just like Pujols, his minor league numbers look a lot like his Major League marks. That means your only worry with Sandoval is injury. He's going to be a major star.

There's Lehr

Where's Justin Lehr been? In the minors, for three years. Wednesday he not only won his first game in the Majors since May 18, 2006, Lehr also 4-hit the Cubs in a complete-game shutout. The Reds 32-year-old right-hander was starting just the second game of his career. He may have earned a third.

Fantasy Impact: Almost none. There have to be a few managers out there willing to take a one-game flier on Lehr to see if he can turn the trick again. Here's hoping we're playing one of those managers next week.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Buchholz cruises

Making his first start in almost a full calendar year, Clay Buchholz looks solid in a 4-1 victory over the Blue Jays. While he gives up just one run on four hits, Buchholz doesn't not earn a quality start as he works 5 2/3 innings, throwing 104 pitches.

Fantasy Impact: Buchholz has dominated at the minor league level for the past two seasons, but he needs to put it together for the Red Sox. Right now it looks like Boston is going with a six-man rotation, and Buchholz's performance could force a trade. That means he's got a legitimate shot of sticking. He's worth a flier, but expect mixed results for the interim.

Berkman out a night

Lance Berkman sits out the night after suffering a mild calf strain. It doesn't sound like a problem, although Berkman is thinking about the injury.
"It's just tight and sore," he said. "It's probably a small pulled muscle or something like that. I'm just worried about a lingering issue, which I obviously don't want, especially going into a pretty important stretch for us here in the first part of the second half."
Fantasy Impact: Lingering injuries are never a good thing. They not only keep players out of the lineup now and again, they also impact statlines. Berkman might need to be benched until he gets back in the game.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

2009 MLB closers - first half review

A list of the top MLB closers over the first half of 2009. Criteria used in evaluation: Saves, blown saves, ERA, WHIP, BAA

First Tier:


1. Joe Nathan
2. Heath Bell
3. Mariano Rivera
4. Ryan Franklin
5. Huston Street
6. Francisco Cordero
7. Francisco Rodriguez
8. Jonathan Papelbon
9. Jonathan Broxton
10. David Aardsma
11. Brian Fuentes
12. Trevor Hoffman


Second Tier:


13. Joakim Soria
14. Frank Francisco
15. George Sherrill
16. Bobby Jenks
17. Fernando Rodney
18. Brian Wilson
19. Rafael Soriano
20. Scott Downs
21. Andrew Bailey
22. Kevin Gregg
23. Chad Qualls
24. Matt Capps

Third Tier:

25. Matt Lindstrom
26. Kerry Wood
27. LaTroy Hawkins
28. Brad Lidge
29. J.P. Howell
30. J. Valverde
31. Mike Gonzalez
32. C.J. Wilson
33. Brad Ziegler
34. M. MacDougal
35. T. Percival

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Rebirth of Berkman

Lance Berkman's slow start is appearing to be a thing of the past. The Astros first baseman slugs his 18th home run and extends his hitting streak to 11 games in a 2-4 effort in a 9-4 victory over Washington. Berkman's on pace for right around 100 RBI and 90 runs scored, which is pretty good after his woefully slow start, which included a strikeout rate of more than 30 percent. He's now hitting .277 and looking like he can climb into the .290s by season's end.

Fantasy Impact: Berkman remains one of the game's most consistent performers. His contact hitting has come around dramatically since the end of May. Berkman's struck out just 20 times since June 1st, and he's upped his average 119 points since the end of April. He's a must start, a keepable asset, and one of the top options at first base. It was only a matter of time before he came around.

Richard rocked

Clayton Richard hasn't just suffered a recent run of bad luck, the White Sox starter has pitched so poorly that he's now in danger of losing his rotation spot altogether. Richard gave up six earned runs on three walks and four hits in a single inning of work against the Indians on Thursday. He failed to record a single out in the second inning before getting pulled.

Fantasy Impact: Aaron Poreda owners will be upset, because the young phenom is not even in the running for Richard's rotation spot if he gets pulled. Instead, Bartolo Colon or D.J. Carrasco will get the first shot. The situation is fluid, however, as Richard might make his next start after the All-Star break.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Ross is boss

Ross Ohlendorf throw his best outing in two months as the Pirates ride their big right-hander to a 3-0 victory over the Cubs. Ohlendorf has pitched well in his first full season as a starter, posting a 7-6 record with a 4.41 ERA on a losing team.

Fantasy Impact: Certainly, you can do better than Ohlendorf, but you can also do much, much worse. The young righty continues to pitch well despite his low strike out total. He actually notched eight in seven innings in this one. He's a great low-end rotation option. If you've got him as a 5the or 6th starter, you're exceeding your replacement value.

Ug-Lee

Indians starter Cliff Lee threw the Chicago White Sox batting practice in game two of their series giving up 7 runs on 11 hits in three innings. His ERA soars to 3.39, which is obviously very respectable but still bot that of a frontline fantasy ace.

Fantasy Impact: Earlier in the year we talked about Lee's inflated value after his Cy Young season. Certainly there are fantasy managers out ther who over-valued the solid lefty. The fact of the matter is this: Lee is a good to very good pitcher, but he's not one of the top 10 or even 20 pitchers in baseball. He'll never dominate like the game's best, and therefore he'll continue to be a top-end No. 3 or low end No. 2 fantasy starter. If you drafted him high or kept him, here's hoping you moved him prior to this paltry showing.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Ramirez rehab scheduled

Aramis Ramirez's rehab assignment begins Thursday, which is good news for the Cubs. Ramirez's bat has been sorely missed, but the Cubs are seeing production in his place from rookie Jake Fox. Fox went 2-3 Monday in a 3-1 victory over the Pirates, leaving him at .347 at the Major League level this season. Fox is Chicago's hottest hitter, and taking him out of the lineup would only be counterproductive while he's hitting so well.

Fantasy Impact: If and when Ramirez is ready to come back, the Cubs will have a serious decision to make: do they sit Fox, a below-average defensive player, in favor of Milton Bradley in right field? Ramirez would certainly inherit his third base spot when he's available, meaning Fox will have to slot somewhere else. Right field might be the only option.

Alexei's OK

Alexei Ramirez left the White Sox game against the Indians when a Chris Perez pitch struck him in the head. Ramirez stayed down for a couple of minutes as the White Sox training staff evaluated him on the field. While it was a scary moment, Ramirez says he will be able to play on Tuesday.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Lesson learned?

Did the Brewers learn a valuable lesson last year via the CC Sabathia trade? This year, Milwaukee is not going to deal top prospects like Matt Gamel and Alcides Escobar for high-priced free-agents to be, even if it's badly needed pitching they can acquire in return. Doug Melvin, who giddly said "We're going for it!" last year, has certainly changed his tone regarding a blockbuster deal.
"It's almost impossible. You never say never but it's not my focus at all. Those young players are valuable." After LaPorta was dealt for Sabathia, who led the Brewers to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years, Escobar moved up to the top spot in the organizational prospect rankings by Baseball America magazine, with Gamel at No. 2. As badly as the Brewers need starting pitching help with Dave Bush on the disabled list and Manny Parra in the minors, Melvin said the price would be too high if he included Gamel or Escobar. Gamel has been with the Brewers since May 14 and is batting .244 with two homers and 12 RBI in 32 games.
Middle- to small-market teams like the Brewers who cannot afford a dearth of big contracts need to hang onto their high-end prospects, because in the end, they get nothing. The traded prospect is gone, and so is the player Milwaukee traded for. We ripped Milwaukee for the Sabathia trade last year, saying mortgaging the future wouldn't bring them a title. This time The Brewers wised up.

Lesson learned?

Did the Brewers learn a valuable lesson last year via the CC Sabathia trade? This year, Milwaukee is not going to deal top prospects like Matt Gamel and Alcides Escobar for high-priced free-agents to be, even if it's badly needed pitching they can acquire in return.
"It's almost impossible. You never say never but it's not my focus at all. Those young players are valuable." After LaPorta was dealt for Sabathia, who led the Brewers to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years, Escobar moved up to the top spot in the organizational prospect rankings by Baseball America magazine, with Gamel at No. 2. As badly as the Brewers need starting pitching help with Dave Bush on the disabled list and Manny Parra in the minors, Melvin said the price would be too high if he included Gamel or Escobar. Gamel has been with the Brewers since May 14 and is batting .244 with two homers and 12 RBI in 32 games.
Middle- to small-market teams like the Brewers cannot afford a dearth of big contracts need to hang onto their high-end prospects, because otherwise, they get nothing in the end. The traded prospect is gone, and so is the player Milwaukee traded for. We ripped Milwaukee for the Sabathia trade last year, saying mortgaging the future wouldn't bring them a title. This time The Brewers wised up.

Tulo standing tall

Troy Tulowitzki's resurgence after a tough stretch early in the year may be attributed to altering his batting stance. He's standing more upright at the plate.

Fantasy Impact: Anyone who hits seven homers over 19 games should be worth a start, and after the top shortstops, Tulowitzki remains one of the best options at the position.