Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Sabathia scuffles, but no cause for concern

CC Sabathia continues to mix good and bad starts in 2009. The Yankees ace threw 112 pitches, just half of them for strikes, without getting through the seventh inning against the A's. He walked four, gave up six hits and a three-run homer to Kurt Suzuki. Sabathia's six earned runs in 6 2/3 innings is messy at best, although he avoided a loss as the Yankees rallied to tie and won the game in 14 innings, 9-7.

Fantasy Impact: This is not the first time Sabathia has struggled. While his ERA ballooned to 4.81, Sabathia has just a 3.65 lifetime ERA. Last season's incredible run with the Brewers, in which he won 11 times in 17 outings while posting a 1.65 ERA, was the best stretch of his career. Those stunning numbers probably had some to do with Sabathia facing a league of hitters that had rarely or never faced him before.

Now he's back in the A.L. with DHs and opponents who know him well. We're going to expect that ERA to return to the mid-threes this year. Sabathia is just one good start away from accomplishing that.

Cuban Missle's slow start

Alexei Ramirez went 2-4 with a stolen basen Tuesday in Baltimore, raising his paltry average to .159 in 44 at bats. He's scuffling along, but some believe a night like Tuesday is the kind of performance that will get him started.

Fantasy Impact: Ramirez started woefully slow in 2008, leading some to believe the eventual A.L. Rookie of the Year runner-up was a mistake signing by the White Sox. Ramirez hit just .138 in 29 April at bats last year. After 90 at bats in 2008, Ramirez improved to .234. He batted .295 in May. We're forecasting gradual improvement as the weather heats up.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Debating what's good defense

The Tampa Bay Rays rose to the top of the American League in 2008 in part because of their outstanding defense. Matthew Leach of MLB.com takes a look at MLB teams recent infatuation with analyzing defense, and the statistical information involved.
When it comes to assessing and predicting pitchers, we're getting closer too. The predictive value of strikeouts is clear and well-known. The once revolutionary notion of defense-independent pitching statistics has taken some hold.

But defense remains, in many quarters, a mystery. Fielding percentage is clearly outmoded, but even the numbers that seemed so compelling a few years ago -- such as zone rating and range factor -- have been exposed as limited. Defense is the frontier, and it's not just observers who are trying to figure it out. Teams are. "I think people are putting more resources into it," said Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak. "There's a very healthy debate on how you actually capture it." ">MLB.com's Matthew Leach takes a look at defensive analysis in 2009, which more teams are actively addressing