Saturday, August 29, 2009

Not Meat - Mitre

Sergio Mitre carried a 6.82 ERA and 1.88 WHIP into play on Saturday and proceeded to improbably shut down the White Sox over 6 1/3 innings of one-hit baseball. The only thing that got to Mitre was an A.J. Pierzynski liner off his right forearm that caused the right hander to leave the game early. Mitre took X-rays at Yankee Stadium which turned out to be negative. The Yankees win, 10-0, and Mitre needed just 73 pitches to improve to 3-1.

Fantasy Impact: This outstanding effort gives Mitre a shot at remaining in the Yankees rotation moving forward, but because of the sudden injury concern, Mitre is not quite a fantasy option just yet. He'll need to prove he can bounce back from the injury and throw back-to-back quality starts before he can be relied on more than a flier option in a pinch.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Anibal is back

Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez is back in the Majors after missing over two months with a sprained shoulder. Sanchez produced mix results in two minor league starts during his rehab stint with Double-A Jacksonville.

Fantasy Impact: The former pitching prospect has always been considered worth a flier when returning from his various injuries, but Sanchez has pitched just 117 1/3 innings since his breakout year back in 2006. If you're desperate for pitching, give him a go, but Sanchez's 5.55 ERA over seven starts this year is not of much fantasy value.

Mauer the mauler

Joe Mauer may be on a tear like no one else right now, but he's going to have to keep it going full-throttle if he wants to hit .400. The Twins catcher batted .524 over his recent 15-game hitting streak, but he's 1-7 over his last two games. That's a .486 mark over his last 17 games. Baseball Musings projects Mauer must hit at least .451 the rest of the way to reach .400 for the season.

Fantasy Impact: There's no doubt Mauer is the best hitting catcher in baseball. His remarkable power surge (.648 SLG pct. in 2009 is 141 points over last season's mark) makes a good thing that much better. Mauer is such a complete hitter than a run at .400 is not out of the question, even if it's highly unlikely.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Wagging Wagner

The New York Mets pitched Billy Wagner for the first time in about a year, and the results look pretty good. Wagner works a two-strikeout eighth inning for the Mets against the Braves in a 3-2 loss. Wagner did not factor into the decision, but he did throw about as well as he possibly could, needing 14 pitches to retire the side.

Fantasy Impact: Francisco Rodriguez is the guy the Mets acquired to fill Wagner's spot, and he's going to remain the Mets closer as far as anyone can tell. Wagner is considered trade bait at this point of his Mets tenure. Pitch well enough, and perhaps a suitor comes along that is willing to take the remainder of his $10.5 M salary for this season and $8 M option for next season. If he continues to pitch this well, the Mets are more likely to find a trade partner, and Wagner's fantasy value may climb to that of a full-time closer in September.

J-Roll in a hole

The Phillies not only have a closer that can't close in Brad Lidge, but they also have a leadoff man who can't (or at least shouldn't) hit at the top of the order. That someone is Jimmy Rollins, who seemed to be a shoe-in as a top-flight shortstop this year. He's still an excellent option at the position, but with a batting average stuck in the .240s and an OBP just 50 points higher, Rollins is hitting like a No. 8 hitter. There are 14 Phillies getting on base more often than Rollins, and three of those players are pitchers. One of those pitchers, Cliff Lee, has just 45 career at bats. Another, Jamie Moyer, turns 47 in November.

Fantasy Impact: If you own Rollins, you've got to be thankful that Charlie Manuel is stubborn enough to keep his players in their assigned roles rather than the roles they're cut out for. Rollins benefits statistically from hitting at the top of the Phillies order. With better players hitting behind him, he stands a better chance of producing despite his struggles. We've been waiting for Rollins to turn things around all year. He's running out of time.

Readdressing Lee

Earlier this year we talked about the trouble in considering Cliff Lee a No. 1 starter in fantasy baseball. Several things contributed to our analysis that Lee should not be regarded as a top-flight pitcher, among them: an average K/9 rate and the dangerous afterglow following a career year.

All things change, however, and Lee's move to the National League has Spitting Seeds rethinking his value down the stretch. Lee tossed a stellar two-hit complete game on Wednesday, dropping his NL ERA to 0.72. Lee's K/9 has climbed by three full points to 9.3/9, putting him on par with elite-level pitchers. That's what a National League full of hitters that have rarely seen you can do for your numbers. Just ask CC Sabathia.

Fantasy Impact: Lee is back at fantasy ace status until further notice. He's 4-0 since joining the Phillies and will certainly get Cy Young consideration even with just a couple of full months in the NL.

Baseball labor peace in 2011?

It looks like there are no issues at this point for baseball's 2011 labor agreement, but with the two sides potentially not getting together until the months leading up to deal time, something could easily pop up. The Sporting News makes mention of owners potentially pushing for a salary cap.
The MLBPA, historically viewed as the strongest of all the major sports unions, has successfully beaten back efforts to install a cap system.

Nevertheless, MLB owners "have been trying for one for 20 years," said labor-side attorney James Quinn, outside counsel to the National Basketball Players Association and the NFL Players Association, who has worked for all four major players unions. "I am sure they will try again."
Here's wondering if the owners have a better shot at a cap in 2011 if the recession holds on for a couple more years. Certainly owners would argue from the standpoint that decreased revenue streams means a cap is necessary.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Indians Recall LaPorta

Hot prospect Matt LaPorta got his much anticipated recall to Cleveland. He takes the roster spot of an injured Trever Crowe and is expected to play regularly, but because of his shortcomings defensively at first in the minors, LaPorta's regular position remains an unknown.
"Anybody that goes over there goes through that," Wedge said. "It's a very underrated position. A lot goes on out there, and you need to know where you need to be."
Fantasy Impact: LaPorta ripped 17 home runs in 338 minor league at bats, so the Indians will find a spot for him. He hit a homer every 16 at bats while in the minors, and his .938 OPS in Triple-A is spectacular. He's poised to be a major contributor down the stretch. He's worth an add and maybe even a start immediately.

Cubs closer up for grabs

Update (8/19/09 @ 1:47 p.m.): Piniella ends up naming Marmol his closer. This is still a developing situation due to Marmol's erratic nature. Guzman should not be ignored in fantasy play, nor should Gregg, as either could be counted on for saves down the stretch.
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Lou Piniella says he's considering removing Kevin Gregg from the Cubs closer role. The ESPN blurb mentions Carlos Marmol and Angel Guzman as candidates to close.

Fantasy Impact: Marmol is the more obvious choice from a fantasy standpoint, but he's been erratic this year. Marmol has struck out more than a batter per inning, but his 52 walks in 56 1/3 innings is not the stuff for finish off leads. Guzman's numbers are much more stable across the board, but with one career save and just 39 strikeouts in 52 innings, he also leaves something to be desired. This situation could result in Baltimore's George Sherrill removal earlier this year: the Orioles realized Sherrill was still the best option and continued to use him as closer shortly after his demotion. Sherrill is a much better pitcher than Gregg, however, so don't hold your breath on a similar result. Call it "closer by committee" for the Cubs. Marmol should get first shot.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Drew at the top

After slugging 21 homers to go along with a .291 average last season, Stephen Drew, like many of his Diamondbacks teammates, had struggled mightily this year. Now a move to the leadoff spot has rejuvenated his numbers.
He has hit safely in 23 of 25 games in the leadoff spot (35 for 112, .313) with 21 of his 54 runs scored, five of his 10 home runs, eight of his 24 doubles, four of his eight triples, and 16 of his 49 RBIs. "It's one of those things where you get comfortable as a hitter," said Drew, who also stole his fourth base of the season Monday. "And I feel real comfortable right now."
Fantasy Impact: Moving to the top spot in the order certainly limits RBI output, but batting anywhere in the order can do that to a player in Arizona. The D'backs are punchless outside of Mark Reynolds and now Drew. If Drew keeps things up, he's keep-able again in fantasy play.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Hunting for Hunter?

Angels manager Mike Scioscia left Torii Hunter out of the lineup on Monday, just one day after Hunter's sparkiling return from a strained right adducter injury that shelved him for 5 weeks. Hunter went 2-6 with a run and 2 RBI in 13 innings of baseball against the Orioles in that first game back. He sat out Tuesday merely for rest reasons and not because of any kind of reinjury.

Fantasy Impact: Hunter was on his way to a career year prior to going down. He's a nice outfielder to own in fantasy play. If he continues to play as well as he did over the first half, expect big things down the stretch.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Cup check, Beltre

Adrian Beltre might miss the remainder of the season after taking one where in counts and not counting on a protective cup.
Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu said the Gold Glove infielder is out indefinitely, and could need surgery because of bleeding in a testicle.

Beltre was walking stiffly with his legs far apart on Thursday before the Mariners hosted the New York Yankees. He was due to see a specialist, who will decide if surgery is needed.

"They don't want him doing anything, just sitting and resting and icing," Wakamatsu said of trainers.

"They say if it's a major surgery it could be at least a month, maybe more, so there's a chance of that. ... It's healing already, it's just a matter of whether they're going to have to go in and fix it surgically. We'll know shortly."
Fantasy Impact: Ouch! Especially ouch for fantasy owners enjoying Beltre's recent eight-game hitting streak. He's not the best offensive third baseman, so there are other options out there. In fact, Beltre's Thursday replacement filled in quite admirably. Josh Wilson produced the only Seattle run with a home run. He owns three homers over parts of three MLB seasons dating back to 2005. A lifetime .218 career hitter, Wilson won't make many fantasy rosters.

Don't snooze on Kouz

Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is potentially set to take off as a fantasy option after going 5-5 Thursday against the Brewers to up his average to .263. Kouzmanoff has 11 hits in his last three games. An adjustment in Kouzmanoff's hitting approach might be the difference.

Fantasy Impact: Maybe it's something in the water in Milwaukee. Kouzmanoff was hovering in the .240s before the hitting binge against the Brew Crew. Then again, the Padres teed off on Milwaukee as a whole, scoring 28 runs over three games. Therein lays the rub: did Kouzmanoff and the Padres hit this well, or did the Brewers actually pitch this poorly? Kouz hasn't produced to the levels of more stable third basemen over his three full seasons in the Majors, but he's not a terrible option. His numbers compare to a slightly less productive Joe Crede during Crede's better years with the White Sox. Kouzmanoff's strong defense (just three errors in 2009) will keep him in the lineup, too. He's a low-end option as a starter in fantasy play, but he's certainly good enough to be on your roster as a part-time player.

Matsui mashes two homers

Hideki Matsui continues to put together a solid season. The Yankees once-slugging outfielder is flashing power now and again this season, and doing it more often with his third and fourth home runs of August in an 11-1 Yankees whipping of the Mariners. Matsui goes 4-5 with 5 RBI and four runs scored.

Fantasy Impact: Left by many on the fantasy scrap heap for his injury risk and decreased production, Matsui has proven a decent option as a fourth outfielder. He's no longer the power threat he once was, but it's hard to scoff at 19 home runs and that band box the Yankees call home.

Jeter keeps ticking

Derek Jeter is OK. The Yankees shortstop, who left Wednesday's game after taking a pitch off his right foot for X-rays, only missed at bats Thursday because the Yankees blew away the Mariners, 11-1. Jeter found himself at the top of the Yankees order once again, slugging his 14th home run in a 2-4 effort at the plate. Jeter continues to produce as one of the top options at shortstop in fantasy play.

Fantasy Impact: The X-rays must have been precautionary in nature. The 35-year-old Jeter is putting together one of his classic all-around seasons at the top of the Yankees order. He's right there chasing Hanley Ramirez as arguably the next-best option at SS in fantasy play.

Another Hamilton multi-hit game

Josh Hamilton makes it eight multi-hit games the last ten times out, going 4-4 with 2 RBI and a run scored in a 4-1 Rangers win over the Indians. Hamilton rips two doubles, his 12th and 13th of the season, and he ups his average to .260, the high-point since a .263 spike on July 7th.

Fantasy Impact: The sign of things to come? The once substance-addicted outfielder has been under scrutiny for recently admitting to backsliding at least once this offseason. He did take responsibility for the episode with his team and then again with the media, but the issue doesn't help his image much. It's more likely Hamilton's injuries that kept him back this season.

Arroyo dominates

Bronson Arroyo strings together his fourth straight quality start, this time producing his best effort of the year. The reds starter tosses a complete-game shutout, two-hitting the Nationals on his way to his 11th victory. Maybe it's the supplements?

Fantasy Impact: This kind of performance by a mid- to low-end fantasy option is the kind of thing that earns owners a winning week. Arroyo is not, however, in the midst of some sort of awakening as a fantasy play. His first year back in the National League was the most impressive of his career (3.29 ERA/1.19 WHIP/.243 BAA), but since then his numbers have taken a steady rise. Arroyo's 1.40-plus WHIP ever since is the sign of an average pitcher potentially declining. He's avoidable, if possible despite the very occasional gem. If Major League teams take a pass, shouldn't you?

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Gomes goes yard three times

Reds outfielder Jonny Gomes slugs three home runs against the Nationals on Thursday, powering Cincinnati to a 7-0 victory. He's up to 14 homers on the season and is hitting .271.

Fantasy Impact: Power has never been a problem for Gomes, who's hit 21 and 20 home runs over more or less full seasons in the majors in years past. Consistency is a big problem. Gomes began getting regular at bats in the middle of July when reds youngster Jay Bruce hit the disabled list. Since then, Gomes' batting average had been in steady decline, going from .338 on July 1st to .259 the day before his home run binge. He's a stop-gap at best. His playing time will likely decrease come September 1st, when Bruce is expected to return, creating a logjam in the Cincinnati outfield.

Rodney in danger? Not quite

Fernando Rodney tosses a perfect, one-strikeout ninth for his 24th save, a 2-0 Tigers victory over the Red Sox. Despite just one blown save on the year, Rodney has his critics including this blogger, who all but forecasts Rodney's imminent ouster.

Fantasy Impact: The write-up on Rodney is speculative at best, as there are no news reports expecting his demise as Detroit closer. Setup man Brandon Lyon has pitched well since incorporating a cut fastball at the end of May. Sure, his numbers are better than Rodney's, but pitching the eighth is different from pitching the ninth, and managers tend to go with what the know over the unknown. What Jim Leyland knows is Rodney's gotten the job done in 2009. He's seen Lyon close a single game under his watch. Rodney's job is safe unless he comes unglued. Lyon owners will be on the short end of the save chances until then.

Running bases with Pods

Scott Podsednik might be know for his fleet feet, but the White Sox outfielder continues to make base running gaffes. Wednesday night in Seattle, Podsednik made it to third base with one out in the 10th in a 0-0 ballgame but proceeded to be picked off by Seattle catcher Rob Johnson. It wasn't even close. The White Sox eventually lost the game 1-0 in 14 innings.

Fantasy Impact: Pods is hitting .296 after a 2-6 effor against the Mariners. He's stolen 18 bases and scored 51 times this year, but none of his numbers are enough to make him a starter in fantasy play. He's a part-time player for his ability to steal bases and not hurt your team batting average. He should be losing time in the outfield now with Alex Rios on board with the White Sox.

Closers on the hot seat

KFFL considers Leo Nunez and Brad Lidge to be the closers closest to losing their jobs down the stretch. Kevin Gregg received what amounts to honorable mention for his recent struggles. Agreed.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Jeter X-ray negative

Derek Jeter suffered a right foot contusion when Toronto starter Ricky Romero hit him in Jeter's leadoff at bat. The injury didn't stop Jeter from getting around the bases as he scored the game's first run, but he did have to leave the game in the second after grounding out.

An X-ray showed no damage, but there is no word on Jeter's prognosis.

Fantasy Impact: The Yankees play Thursday night in Seattle. It may be wise to leave Jeter out of the lineup if possible.

Re-thinking throwing programs

Wonder how the Texas Rangers finally found success on the mound in 2009? Part of the answer comes with a reconfigured throwing program for Rangers pitchers.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Gonzalez goes gonzo without homering

Adrian Gonzalez exploited Brewers pitching, going 6-6 in a 13-6 Padres romp. Gonzalez doubled once to go along with five singles. He scored twice and knocked in three. Gonzalez's six hits are a career high.

Fantasy Impact: If there's a knock on Gonzalez in fantasy play, it's his mediocre batting average. After recording six hits that average climbs to an unimpressive .262. In all other offensive categories he remains a force. If he weren't playing half of his games at Petco Park and all of his days in San Diego's lineup, he might be one of the top first basemen in all of fantasy. Instead, he's a higher-end option with potential upside if he's traded or the Padres improve.

Youkilis-Porcello brawl

Kevin Youkilis looked like a blitzing linebacker tackling an unprotected quarterback Tuesday night, charging Detroit rookie Rick Porcello in the 2nd inning after Porcello hit him in the back. Both benches emptied, Youkilis and Porcello were ejected, and order was restored.

Porcello's pitch appeared to be retaliation for Boston starter Junichi Tazawa hitting Miguel Cabrera in the hand in the first inning, but the beanballs followed a Monday filled with hit batsmen between the two teams.

Fantasy Impact: Youkilis and Porcello face fines and suspensions, so you can expect to lose Youkilis for the better part of.a week and Porcello for a start. Youkilis' loss certainly hurts more. Porcello hasn't pitched well since a strong May.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Tigers battery a double positive

The youngest battery in the Majors proved effective the first time together as 20-year-old Rick Porcello wins his 10th game of the season and 22-year-old catcher Alex Avila goes 2-4 with a run scored and an RBI in his MLB debut. The Tigers rookies certainly helped the team to a 7-3 victory over Baltimore. Avila wasn't even expecting a call-up this year.

Fantasy Impact: Porcello is an own-able option as a starting pitcher, but Avila's situation is much more amorphous. The backstop might not get many chances at the MLB level with Gerald Laird ahead of him. Laird, however, hasn't hit much for the past month, making Avila worth watching in the case that he begins to steal Laird's playing time.

Porcello finally wins

Tigers rookie starter Rick Porcello wins his 10th game of the season, working 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a 7-3 victory against the Orioles. While it was just Porcello's second win since June 18th, the sinker-baller is still a fixture in Detroit's rotation. He's capable of a handful of more wins by season's end, giving the youngest player in the Majors a shot at 15 wins in his opening campaign.

Fantasy Impact: Porcello's ERA swelled almost a full point from the end of June through August 1st, but this outing was a half-step in the right direction. The 20-year-old is holding his own as a Major Leaguer, and he's proven very impressive over the course of 18 MLB starts. When the matchups are right, Porcello is a nice back-of-the-rotation option for any fantasy team.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Pablo's for real

Pablo Sandoval continues to rake to the point that he can be considered a baby Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder at this point in his young career. Like Pujols and Fielder, Sandoval is hitting a ton at a young age, upping his average to .334 with a 3-4, two run, two RBI effort in a 10-6 Giants win over the Astros. Sandoval knocked his 32nd double to go along with 17 home runs, and he's just about to turn 23 next week.

Fantasy Impact: The portly Sandoval doesn't run the bases very well (4 SB in 6 attempts), nor does he have much patience (22 BB in 386 AB), but he does hit exceptionally well. He poses an interesting dilemma as the trade deadline looms in most fantasy leagues: is the young player good enough to acquire and keep for an even better campaign next season, or is he playing a bit above his head? Well, just like Pujols, his minor league numbers look a lot like his Major League marks. That means your only worry with Sandoval is injury. He's going to be a major star.

There's Lehr

Where's Justin Lehr been? In the minors, for three years. Wednesday he not only won his first game in the Majors since May 18, 2006, Lehr also 4-hit the Cubs in a complete-game shutout. The Reds 32-year-old right-hander was starting just the second game of his career. He may have earned a third.

Fantasy Impact: Almost none. There have to be a few managers out there willing to take a one-game flier on Lehr to see if he can turn the trick again. Here's hoping we're playing one of those managers next week.