Friday, October 3, 2008

Friday predictions

Only two games on the docket for Friday, and I'm probably only going to see half of each. Oh well, here goes:

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Buehrle (15-12, 3.79) vs. Kazmir (12-8, 3.49)

-Mark Buehrle's really done a good job on righties the past couple of seasons, and that's helped him against Evan Longoria (0-6 vs. Buehrle). The Rays, however, have a number of players with robust numbers against the White Sox left hander, including Carlos Pena's .500 mark. The Rays will hope he can get back in the lineup after scratching his eye in Thursday's opener. Buehrle didn't have much success against the Rays, going 0-1 with a 4.58 ERA in three starts.

He'll meet hard-throwing lefty Scott Kazmir, who struggled in two of his last three outings. Kazmir, however, had the better year between the two pitchers, and he's dominant at home. Kazmir won eight of his 12 games at the Trop, and held opposing hitters to a .197 average. The White Sox will stack righties against him as Kazmir served up 22 of his 23 home runs to right handed hitters. Expect Nick Swisher to take one outfield spot, and perhaps Brian Anderson to start in center over Ken Griffey Junior. Expect the Rays to win, too. Kazmir is too tough at home, and the White Sox looked sloppy fielding in the dome on Thursday.

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) vs. Santana (16-7, 3.49)

-Boston always beats Los Angeles, but not when Daisuke Matsuzaka's pitching. In his only meeting with the Angles this year, the BoSox ace gave up six runs in five innings to pick up the loss. Matsuzaka was cruising, however, until giving up five earned runs in the sixth inning.

Quick, who was the best pitcher in baseball named Santana this year? You might be surprised to learn that Ervin Santana matched or exceeded Johan Santana in several categories this year. The two had identical records (16-7), Ervin struck out more batters in fewer innings the Johan, and Ervin also owned the better WHIP at 1.12 to 1.15 for Johan. Then again, he wasn't better at keeping those runners from scoring, as Johan's ERA ended up almost a full point lower. The point is, the Angels young right hander came into his own in 2008, or came into conversations with the game's elite, which is incredibly good. Where he struggled, however, was in pressure situations. With runners in scoring position, Santana's ERA soared to 8.29. He's even worse in the clutch, posting an ERA of 19.68 with RISP and two out. Here's guessing that a potent Red Sox lineup is just too much. Boston takes game two, but it's a close one. Matsuzaka will enjoy his revenge.

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