ALCS - game six going Rays way

Forget a Rays collapse. I'm picking Tampa Bay over Boston tonight. The reason is two-fold. James Shields dominates at home (9-2, 2.59 ERA at the Trop in the regular season; 1-0, 3.29 ERA in the postseason), and Josh Beckett hasn't been his dominant self since September 16th (11.57 ERA, .400 BAA in the postseason).

There are, however, a couple of caveats in this prediction. Beckett's last dominant start came at Tampa Bay, going eight innings with seven strike outs and one earned run in a no-decision. Beckett went 2-1 with a 2.09 ERA against the Rays this season. Shields struggled twice against the BoSox in Boston this year (5.85 ERA), but pitched well against the Sox the two times he faced them at home (15.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 W). Don't forget his solid performance in game one of the ALCS (7.1 IP, 2 ER), when he was simply outperformed by Daisuke Matsuzaka in a 2-0 Boston win.

Sticking with Shields, I think. Yes, Shields and the Rays it is.

Update: Daisuke can pitch tonight if needed. This is going to be a great night of baseball.