Friday, July 11, 2008

Analyzing Hart & Longoria selections

Fans voted Evan Longoria and Corey Hart to their respective All-Star teams with this year's final vote. I'm a bit surprised. Longoria is in his first season with the Tampa Bay Rays while Hart is in just his second season with Milwaukee. Neither is putting up Albert Pujols-type numbers, and they're not playing in the biggest of the big in terms of media markets. I guess word on good young players gets out faster these days with fantasy baseball and the internet. Here's a look at their ranking in the five most common fantasy stat categories (AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB) vs. the players they were up against:

NL:
Corey Hart (.292/47/15/57/13) - (3/3/4/3/1) Total: 14
David Wright (.288/59/17/70/10) - (4/1/3/2/2) Total: 12
Pat Burrell (.279/48/22/54/0) - (5/2/1/4/5) Total: 17
Aaron Rowand (.296/40/8/47/1) - (1/5/5/5/4) Total: 20
Carlos Lee (.293/46/21/72/4) - (2/4/2/1/3) Total: 12

AL:
Evan Longoria (.281/44/16/53/6) - (3/4/3/T3/2) Total: 15
Jermaine Dye (.301/52/20/53/3) - (1/2/1/T3/3) Total: 10
Jason Giambi (.256/45/18/54/2) - (5/3/2/2/4) Total: 16
Brian Roberts (.291/59/7/32/25) - (2/1/5/5/1) Total: 14
Jose Guillen (.274/41/13/65/1) - (5/5/4/1/5) Total: 20

(Players are listed in order they finished in the voting)

Low score wins in the "Total" column, so Hart finishes 3rd among NL final vote candidates. Longoria finishes 3rd among AL final vote candidates.

A quick note on the NL "Total" rankings - batting average was very tight between the NL players, so Hart could actually be the top-ranked player with a single day of good hitting vs. a bad day for the other guys. He's a solid choice, but I like David Wright better. Wright is fourth in average, and still ties Carlos Lee with 12 points. Wright doesn't hit as many homers as Lee, but his numbers across the board are very good in every category. I think Wright should've been the All-Star here, while Lee and Hart finish a close second. Fans gave Lee absolutely no credit for an outstanding first half.

As far as Longoria's selection, I think the fans did the right thing in voting him on to the AL roster. He only finishes 3rd in these rankings, but he also missed a large chunk of the season in the minors. Given that, he's still competitive in the R/HR/RBI categories, which is very impressive. Unless he wears out, Longoria is poised to have monster numbers at season's end. Maybe he is Pujols-like, afterall. I like Dye and Roberts second and third, respectively, but Giambi and Guillen had no chance.

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