Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Hamilton still hurting

Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton is pushing his return from a shoulder ailment back to next week.
"I figure if a guy's going to have some down time, have it early," Washington said. "It's no concern."

Hamilton said he wants to make sure he gets healthy so the pain doesn't linger.

"I need to patient with it so I know when I go back out it's not going to hurt and I'm not going to have a setback," Hamilton said. "I don't want to make it mad again."
Fantasy Impact: He missed nearly half of last season with nagging injuries, so this news has to cause some concern. Hamilton had slipped to the middle rounds after an all-star performance in 2008 and then a subpar 2009. We expect him to produce like a No. 2 outfielder with the potential for major upside. If this spring injury continues to linger, call him no better than a No. 3 option due to injury concern.

Blue Jays closer up for grabs

The Blue Jays have three pitchers vying for the closer job: Jason Frasor, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg. At this point The Globe and Mail suggests Gregg is the front runner in spring training.
"He has the stature," Blue Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton said. "He's big, he don't look real nice, and I don't think he is nice when he gets out on the mound. He has that appearance that he's going out there and he doesn't even want to see you foul a ball off. That's pretty special."

If anyone has the inside track, it is probably Gregg, won signed a one-year, $2.45-million (U.S.) contract in the off-season.

After totalling 61 saves in two seasons with the Florida Marlins, Gregg was traded to the Chicago Cubs, but 2009 was a struggle as he went 5-6 with 23 saves and a 4.72 ERA. He also surrendered 13 home runs, tying him for the major-league lead among relief pitchers, and eventually lost his closer's job last August.
Fantasy Impact: Stature didn't help Gregg hold down the Cubs closer job. Both Chicago and Florida were willing to give him up in back-to-back offseasons, which doesn't say much for the veteran. We don't believe Gregg is a favorite in the race for Jays closer. We're leaning toward Frasor earning the job at this time. This is likely the best battle in terms of closers this spring, but the winner might not get a ton of save chances for a potentially last-place Tortonto team.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Sizemore to bat second

The Cleveland Indians will drop Grady Sizemore out of the leadoff spot and insert Asdrubal Cabrera in his place. Sizemore will bat second, giving him more chances to drive in runs.
Acta thinks Sizemore's average yearly output of 25 homers will produce more runs if he avoids hitting many of them with nobody on base. As he reiterated Monday, ''Grady was guaranteed to come to the plate 150 times with nobody on base as a leadoff hitter.''
It's an intelligent move. Cabrera bumped his average up 49 points last year to .308, and his .361 OBP is good enough to lead off, even if it's not ideal. We'd like to see Sizemore in the No. 5 spot, where he's likely to drive in a lot of runs and have the chance to steal bases in front of lesser hitters.

Fantasy Impact: This impacts both players. Cabrera should see plenty of pitches to hit at the top spot, so we expect him to be able to maintain a high average and score at least 85 or 90 runs. He stole 17 bases last season but has just 21 for his career. It's hard to say if he'll become more of a threat.

Sizemore should benefit in most categories other than steals. He's never tallied more than 100 RBI in a season, so this year could be his first. At full health, he's a 5-tool fantasy player and a steal in drafts if he falls below the 3rd round.

Roll the dice on Daisuke

Daisuke Matsuzaka is finally throwing pitches this spring after a back injury derailed his schedule. His role is hardly defined with the Red Sox in 2010.
There’s no such chance, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona said with a smile that Dice-K is getting closer to at least throwing from a live pitcher’s mound, a first step toward getting him into what figures to be a healthy competition for the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs with Tim Wakefield [stats] and Clay Buchholz.

“Dice had a great day,” Francona said. “It was as good a day as he’s had. Toward the end of the week we’ll get him some mound work. What we’re trying to do is get him ready properly (for the season) and not have artificial deadlines.”
Fantasy Impact: Matsuzaka may be fighting for a rotation spot, but if he's right, he's almost certain to win a job. The 29-year-old right hander owns a 37-21 career record. He gives up base runners, and when he's off his game as he was in 2009, that can spell trouble. He may not open the year a part of the Red Sox rotation due to his slow start this spring, but he's still worth a sleeper pick in the middle to late rounds of any fantasy draft.

After all, Wakefield is only as good as his knuckleball and Buchholz has yet to put it all together for more than a short stretch at the major league level.

Jenks behind schedule despite improved health

At the start of spring training White Sox talk gravitated toward the subject of Bobby Jenks' weight loss. Now we learn that while Jenks may be more svelt this season, he's not on schedule at this point in spring training. Pitching coach Don Cooper isn't one to stress about Jenks.
''Because Bobby worked so hard on his conditioning, plus Bobby had another child, plus the weather in Chicago is bad,'' Cooper said. ''And he told me he had a little difficulty getting somebody to catch him. So he was just playing more catch than actually pitching off a mound. ''But one thing I know about Bobby, every year if you look back everybody is, 'Geez, we've got to get him in shape. Geez, he's not ready.' But when it came to Opening Day, he was always ready. I know he's going to be ready again.''
Fantasy Impact: The White Sox continue to have faith in Jenks, and until we see him falter and get pulled in favor of one of Chicago's many talented relievers, he's still worh a spot on a fantasy roster as a No. 2 closer. He's not the prettiest or safest acquisition, but he's steady enough going into the year.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

ESPN talks to Scout X

ESPN reports various musings from Scout X, a big-league scout with a couple of interesting considerations for the 2010 season. Among them:

He thinks Matt Cain has a better six- to eight-year outlook than Tim Lincecum.

He also likes Phil Hughes over Joba Chamberlain for Yankees fifth starter.

Nothing else really stands out.

Fantasy Impact: It's becoming fairly typical for those doubting the diminutive Lincecum and his unique pitching rotation. We still find the best analysis of his mechanics to be much less of an indictment than what the doubters are saying.

Hughes vs. Chamberlain is certainly a tossup. Neither is a good fantasy option due to their low sample size and MLB inconsistency, but they both deserve flier picks due to playing for the Yankess.

Reyes HGH concerns

Jose Reyes got a visit from the FBI regarding a doctor he worked with in connection with HGH.
“They asked me if he inject me with that, I said no,” Reyes said. “What we do there is basically is he took my blood out, put in some machine, spit it out and put it back into my leg.”

He was referring to a procedure that was intended to help him recover from a hamstring injury.

Reyes said that he met with the authorities for less than an hour and that he was surprised they wanted to meet with him.

“They called me in the morning and said they wanted to meet me,” Reyes said. “I mean, they said this is the F.B.I., and I said, man, what did I do wrong. I was kind of surprised a little, scared, but after that, they said should be no problem with me, it’s just an investigation. Right now I don’t worry because he don’t put nothing like that in my body. I know what he was doing with me, so I don’t have to worry about that because I know I’m fine.”
Fantasy Impact: It would not appear that Reyes is in much trouble, especially if the FBI actually told him there's not a problem. He remains the third best option at shortstop in fantasy baseball after Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. He has the opportunity to place as high as second if healthy.

Gutierrez could be D'backs future closer

The Arizona Diamondbacks like what they've seen from setup man Juan Gutierrez to the point that he might end up Arizona's closer next season. Chad Qualls is the incumbent in 2010.
Gutierrez's performance last year validated GM Josh Byrnes decision to trade former closer Jose Valverde to the Astros after the 2007 season for Gutierrez, Qualls and infielder Chris Burke. While Burke was a bust, Qualls has put together two good seasons and Gutierrez could conceivably slip into the closer's role if Qualls departs as a free agent following 2010.

"He's always had plus stuff, very solid delivery and arm action and multiple pitches," Byrnes said. "He has a lot of pieces in place to be successful. You hoped it would translate, and now that he's had success, he can build off that."

Which is exactly what Gutierrez is trying to do.

"I learned more about how to pitch last year," he said. "I learned how to control your emotions. When you have a bad day you've got to forget about it. You have to say this is a new day and I'm going to show the world what I have."
Fantasy Impact: There's a chance Gutierrez earns the job even sooner than 2011. Consider that Qualls is coming back off a serious injury sustained late in 2010, so he's not necessarily in baseball shape going into the year. Then, there's the chance that the Diamondbacks, who won't be picked any higher than third in the NL West this year, could be sellers come July. If Qualls is moved to a contending team, Gutierrez could be in line for as many as 15-20 saves over the latter half of the season. The D'backs bullpen is definitely one to monitor all summer long.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Brian Roberts' bad back

Brian Robers is still hopeful to be ready for opening day, but the Orioles second baseman's health is in question after revealing he was diagnosed with a herniated disc this offseason.
"I'm not a doctor, so I don't know the repercussions of what certain things are, but, yeah, I think anytime you hear 'disk' and you hear 'back,' it's certainly frightening," Roberts said after doing a light workout. "We tried to do our due diligence and be seen by the right people and get the right advice. I think we did that, and now we're moving forward. It's going to be a little slow probably at the beginning, but it shouldn't set me back hopefully for [Opening Day] on April 6."

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said the club isn't concerned because Roberts has already responded well to medication and treatment.

Head athletic trainer Richie Bancells "has explained it to me that these are things that 90 percent of the time resolve themselves," MacPhail said. "As long as the symptoms keep improving, which they have with Brian, there really isn't anything for us to be alarmed about. We have a lot of time. We have six weeks. The position players aren't the same as pitchers in terms of getting ready, so there really isn't any concern amongst our group."
Then again, Roberts isn't your typical position player. Spring training will tell if Roberts can handle the demands of second base and still put together a productive offensive game that includes stealing bases.

Fantasy Impact: Roberts may say he can go, and the Orioles might be hopeful that he'll play to his all-star calibur, but fantasy owners should take note. We assume Roberts will drop from his standing as one of the top options off the board in a fantasy draft. Here's our second base rankings before and after learning of Roberts' bad back:

Before:
Chase Utley
Ian Kinsler
Aaron Hill
Dustin Pedroia
Ben Zobrist
Robinson Cano
Brian Roberts
Gordon Beckham
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla

After:

Chase Utley
Ian Kinsler
Aaron Hill
Dustin Pedroia
Ben Zobrist
Robinson Cano
Gordon Beckham
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla
Brian Roberts
Jose Lopez
Rickie Weeks
Martin Prado

We now slot Roberts as the 10th most productive second baseman after Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla and just ahead of the versatile Jose Lopez. Roberts has two things against him now - he's 32, meaning his best days (especially as a player whose game is predicated on speed) are beginning to get behind him, and he's dealing with an injury. We'll take guaranteed production from Phillips' and Uggla's potent bats over a guy with a probable bad back who needs his body in optimal shape to produce.

Rodney doesn't want Fuentes' hectic job

Fernando Rodney is saying the right things after joining the Los Angeles Angels. He's not interested in Brian Fuentes' closing job, the one Fuentes says is supposed to be difficult.
Fuentes admits he gave fans reason to be nervous and says his performance last year was "probably not as strong" as he would like.

"I could have been more consistent," Fuentes said. "It's definitely not easy to close out a game but I definitely think I shouldn't have had as low a percentage as I did. I'd like to have had fewer blown saves and been more consistent."

It might have helped if Fuentes had been able to throw a little harder. Early last season, it was obvious his velocity was down, an occurrence that Angels manager Mike Scioscia dismissed as fairly typical for Fuentes and something that would pass as the season went on.

It never did.

"I don't think it ever really came around," Fuentes said, an opinion that is backed up by the numbers.

A study by www.fangraphs.com pegged Fuentes' average fastball in 2009 as being down 1.6 miles per hour from 2008 (when he averaged 92.5 mph) though Fuentes referred to a 4 mph drop. It was one of the biggest drops in baseball last season.
Fuentes says he's not worried so much about his velocity. Mike Scioscia says Fuentes is the man at closer.

Fantasy Impact: We're not so worried about Fuentes losing his job to Fernando Rodney. We'd be just as concerend for him to lose it to Scot Shields, who may prove to be the most productive member of the Angels' relief staff. Fuentes may have job security now, but that's because he hasn't yet thrown a pitch. We expect another rocky road for him late in games in 2010. Velocity is not something 35-year-old pitchers find to improve.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Jenks in shape

White Sox closer Bobby Jenks credits better living in general as the reason for his shaping up for spring training.
"It was a lot of things," said the 6-foot-4 Jenks, who weighed in Sunday at 275 pounds. "Not drinking helps. But really it was a lifestyle choice I wanted to make -- not just for myself but for my family.

"The drinking part was hard. It was up to me to get motivated. That was the tough part. But once you did, it was easy.''

Jenks said he resumed eating smarter "like I used to.''
Those 275 lbs are not a misprint. That was Jenks listed weight last year, which appeared kind from the growth of his belly over the past couple of years.

Fantasy Impact: Jenks' numbers weren't all that bad last year. With an 8.3 K/9 rate, he posted one of the better strikeout ratios of his career. He still saved plenty of games to start for your fantasy team, and he was never in any real danger of losing his job, although that was speculated in late summer. Jenks was just a bit more hittable. It seemed that he wore down in stretches and left the ball over the plate. A little less body to get in the way and a little more focus should keep him a solud bet as a No. 2 closer. That said, J.J. Putz and others are lurking in potentially the deepest bullpen in baseball.

Damon will bat second, Jackson to lead off

Talk that Johnny Damon might threaten rookie Austin Jackson as Tigers leadoff man should disappear for a while now that Tigers manager Jim Leyland says Damon will start off in the No. 2 spot. That gives Jackson the opportunity to take the top spot and run with it.

Fantasy Impact: There's a reason the Yankees gave up Jackson in pursuit of Curtis Granderson - he's young and hasn't taken a single at bat at the major league level. Not only is he unproven, Jackson's minor league stats don't exactly knock you over. He's good, but he's not off-the-page good. Despite his athletic ability and decent size, Jackson slugged just .405 at Triple-A last season. To expect any kind of MLB power surge is silly. He's a good base stealer, but strikes out quite a bit (22 percent of the time in Triple-A last season).

At best, this makes Jackson a late-round sleeper pick in fantasy drafts. We may know more by the end of spring, but Jackson needs to show us something at the major league level before we'd be willing to trust him. Think Carlos Gomez. Don't think Andrew McCutchen.

Myers looking to prove Phils wrong

Astros starter Brett Myers reiterates that he'd like to stick it to the Phillies (in a funny way) for leaving him off last year's postseason roster and his eventual release.
"That would be nice. And I'd like to stick it up their rear end. Just because, you know?" he said happily. "It's just the competitive nature. It's my old team. And I want to beat 'em. I think every guy has incentive to beat his former team. It doesn't have anything to do really with the way they treated me or anything like that. They didn't treat me bad at all. It doesn't have anything to do with that. It just has to do with being competitive and trying to kick their rear end just for the sport of it and try to have fun with it."

On the day he was formally introduced at a news conference in Houston he made similar comments. It got back to him that his remarks were not well-received in Philadelphia.

"If anybody takes that wrong I'm sorry, but that's not the way it's supposed to be meant," he said. "It's supposed to be meant that I want to kick their rear end. And they expect that. I told Ruben that. Whoever I sign with after this, if I pitch against y'all, the old movie, "Major League," my favorite one. You take the ball and fire it off the locker and go, 'Every time I pitch against you I'm going to stick it up your bleepin' bleep.' You know?

"I've always wanted to say that to somebody. In a funny way, though. Because I would think they'd know what I was talking about. I thought that would be funny. But evidently they took it the wrong way up there. People were calling me and saying, 'Why did you say bad things about the city of Philly?' I said, 'I never did and I never will.' "
One thing is for certain; someone is definitely going to take his comments the wrong way.

Fantasy Impact: The Astros signed Myers for $3 million this season, which is a great bargain for a guy with his talents. Between Myers and Wandy Rodriguez, two-thirds of the front of Houston's rotation costs $8 million in 2010. That's incredibly good money-wise, but still not that impressive a rotation. Myers owns a 73-63 career record but the 4.40 career ERA is fairly mid-level, and he gives up a lot of home runs. That's not good in Minute Maid Park. We don't expect a ton of success, even if he's motivated. Myers should hover in the average-to-above pile, which leaves him on the back end of most fantasy baseball starting staffs or just off them, on the waiver wire.

Storen headed to minors?

Washington Nationals manager Jim Riggleman says closer-in-waiting Drew Storen is likely headed for the minors out of spring training.
"Storen did pitch some in the Minor Leagues last year, but we respect the development system and the great staff we have in the Minor Leagues," Riggleman said. "We would probably lean toward starting him down there, but you hear such great things about what he has done -- his delivery, his strike throwing, he has a put-away breaking ball. We are open minded."
Fantasy Impact: We like Storen's makeup, especially his 11.9 K/9. If the Nationals struggle to find a reliable closer at the MLB level he might still be in the mix. Riggleman sounds noncommittal if anything.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Oswalt feeling fine

Roy Oswalt says his back is feeling better this season, and he expects a better effort than his career-worst 2010.
Oswalt, who posted an 8-6 record with career-highs in ERA (4.12) and no-decisions (16), did alter his conditioning routines during the offseason.

He has focused more on core strengthening exercises and less on running, favoring cardio and bike exercises instead.

This year, he also doesn't have to worry about the World Baseball Classic, which is believed to have contributed to Oswalt's back issues.

“I started throwing a little later this year,” Oswalt said . “I don't have to worry about getting some guys out from Japan and Korea.”
Fantasy Impact: He's a former elite fantasy option who hasn't come close to 20 wins or 200 strikeouts since 2005. He has, however, won as many as 17 and 15 games for average to slightly-above average Astros teams in recent seasons. Our bet is on Oswalt to bounce back with around 15 wins and an ERA a few tenths above his 3.23 career mark. He might not be a true strikeout pitcher anymore, but he's still an asset as a third starter on most fantasy teams.

Frank talk on Franklin

The Cardinals are looking at some young pitchers as fallback options for closer Ryan Franklin. The 37-year-old Cardinals closer had a career year in 2009, one we don't expect him to duplicate or even approach. Even Franklin is backing the backup idea.
Franklin, a first-time All-Star last year whose ERA hovered around 1.00 until early September, welcomes the help. He called it a "good idea" and said he just wanted to be part of a winning team.
Fantasy Impact: We're not high on Franklin moving forward, but he's on a good team and he pitched well for the majority of last season. Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs get mentions in the article, and they seem like potential options as the next guys in line. Boggs might end up the Cardinals fifth starter, although Dave Duncan seemingly likes him in a relief role. Motte got first crack as Cardinals closer last season, and failed rather obviously. Franklin is the guy going into the season, but his grasp on the closer role is less than dead-bolt. Let's be honest, teams don't talk about backing up a closer unless they assume they might have to do exactly that.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Mike Gonzalez named Orioles closer

Mike Gonzalez learned he will be the Orioles closer from manager Dave Trembley. That means Jim Johnson will be back in his usual setup role in 2010.
"It definitely tells a whole lot about Trembley and the type of man he is," said Gonzalez, who has 54 career saves, including 10 last year with the Atlanta Braves. "Him knowing that I've obviously been there and done that and obviously I know what I signed for, but hearing that from his mouth and the way he spoke obviously speaks wonders for him as a person and as a manager. It's just an extra respect that you get because he actually comes and sits down and has a talk with you and lets you know where things are going."

Trembley said he felt that it was important to make the official announcement early and begin the process of "slotting everybody else in the bullpen accordingly."
Fantasy Impact: Gonzalez was speculated to win the job, and now he has without much if any competition. The Braves entrusted him with the job only as often as the matchups were in his favor, and the lefty got the job done more often than not. We'll have to see if he fares well in save chances against predominantly right-handed hitters. He might not get the save opportunities pitching for a non-contending Orioles team. Johnson certainly won't now that he's back to setting up.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Cold stops Soriano's first TB outing

The guy who is supposed to stop the revolving door as Rays closer fell sick in his first trip to the hill in 2010. Rafael Soriano only has a chest cold.
Manager Joe Maddon said it was "no cause for concern," and that he was impressed Soriano came out on the field at all. Soriano said it was not a big deal, something he'd had before at the start of camp: "I think it was just too cold for me."

Besides, he said, he doesn't need much work in the spring, planning to wait until next week to throw his first bullpen session and working in only 7-8 games. He said he threw a few bullpen sessions before leaving the Dominican Republic and felt "great."
Fantasy Impact: None. Soriano should be ready to go soon, and he's likely to win the Rays closer job as he's getting paid $7.25 million this year to do exactly that.

Branyan signs with Indians, could cause fantasy ripple effect

The Indians landed cornerman Russell Branyan, signing him to a one-year, $2 million deal. He can slug with the best of them - as evidenced by his 31 homers and .520 SLG, but he's only played more than 100 games three times in his 12-year career.

Fantasy Impact: We can only believe Branyan decided to sign with Cleveland because he has a good shot at starting. With Jhonny Peralta at third and Matt LaPorta at first, Branyan could diminish both players' opportunities in 2010. He's certainly a much-needed power source on a team with a lot of offensive question marks. Fantasy owners hoping LaPorta and Peralta could come through with productive seasons will now have to temper their enthusiasm.

If Branyan takes over predominantly at first LaPorta may need to find at bats in left field, which could reduce the impact of youngster Michael Brantley. That becomes abundantly clear if Grady Sizemore ends up the Cleveland leadoff hitter. The again, if Travis Hafner struggles to hit consistently or merely stay healthy, somebody will take over his spot as DH. The sorting will occur over the next six weeks and probably into the regular season.

Feliz as a starter? Wilson, too?

Neftali Feliz will in fact get a look as a starter for the Rangers this preseason, potentially ending immediate interest in his closer-in-waiting status. With Frank Francisco's designs on the closer role, setup man C.J. Wilson looks to earn a shot as a rotation guy, too.
"It's no secret I don't think I should be limited to the set-up role. I have too many weapons," Wilson said. "Here is the reality. It is real simple. There are not very many guys that have the stuff that I do that would be willing to sign here if they were free agents. There is no experienced pitcher that has my stuff that would sign here, historically."
Fantasy Impact: These two setup men are going up against a competitive group of pitchers for the fourth and fifth spots in the Rangers rotation. Texas has more good arms than perhaps ever before. If either Wilson or Feliz makes the rotation, their value can skyrocket to potential breakthrough sleepers.