Friday, June 5, 2009

The last 300-game winner will not be Unit

Please stop writing about this. The question was asked when Greg Maddux became the latest 300 game winner. It was asked against when Tom Glavine became the even-more-latest 300-game winner. Randy Johnson will not be the last 300-game winner. No way.

The fact that rarely is there a pitcher nearing 300 wins when the latest pitcher turns the milestone means nothing, and while we acknowledge that winning 300 is one of the hardest things to do in baseball, Randy Johnson became the 24th pitcher to do so in a 5-1 victory over Washington Thursday night.

If you divide 24 pitchers over 133 years of Major League Baseball, a pitcher gets to 300 wins about every 5.5 years. While there's merit in the belief that it is growing harder and harder to earn that many victories over a career, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson and Roger Clemens each got to 300 over a period of six seasons. That's one 300-game winner every 1.5 seasons. If anything, the milestone is getting reached more often than ever before.

While the past handful of years is a small sample size and not necessarily a fair measure of pitching history or of the future, greatness will always be greatness. Great pitchers will always dominate, and the best ones will do it for a long, long time. While it will be hard to predict whom will become the next 300-game winner, it's even more difficult to predict the last of anything.

Remember when the 49ers would be the last football dynasty due to the use of a salary cap in the NFL? Along came the Patriots. Remember when Villanova was the last legitimate Cinderella to crash the Final Four? Along came George Mason. Remember when Randy Johnson was considered as possibly the last 300-game winner? We'll look back at that argument and laugh.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Oh, Wells

Cubs starter Randy Wells pitched into the seventh inning with a no-hitter in his bid for his first major league win. He came away empty-handed when the Cubs bullpen blew four-run lead.

Fantasy Impact: Wells worked seven innings, giving up two hits and a run while striking out four. His ERA drops to 1.69 on the year, but he's not guaranteed to continue starting, really. Rich Harden will soon be back from the disabled list, and Wells started with Carlos Zambrano serving a six-game suspension. Wells' best chance at the rotation comes via Sean Marshall heading to the bullpen. There's no guarantee Marshall stays in the 'pen, however, meaning Wells will be on a short leash if he struggles a time or two.

Peavy plain sick

Despite a recent ankle problem, Jake Peavy's short start against the Phillies was nothing more than a pitcher laboring with the flu. Peavy gives up four runs in one inning of work, picking up his sixth loss.

Fantasy Impact: A few days off and Peavy should be ready to go again, although we might see his end-of-week start pushed back a day or two.

Looking Upton

The Upton brothers appear to be blossoming and back in form.

Justin Upton, who slumped in the .100s over much of April, has been the one consistently productive bat in the Diamondbacks order. Upton homered for the 10th time in Monday's 6-5 loss to the Dodgers, upping his RBI total to 33 as he scores for the 34th time. Imagine what those numbers might look like in a productive lineup.

B.J. Upton went 2-3 in a 6-2 Rays win over Kansas City, pushing his average to .212 and giving him a modest 6-game hitting streak. Upton also stole a base, giving him 16 for the season. In his slow progression since coming off the DL after shoulder surgery, his recent performance should give fantasy owners confidence to trust B.J. in their starting lineup again.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Sean West: "Little Unit?"

The Florida Marlins recently recalled minor-leaguer Sean West to fill-out their ailing rotation. The 6'8, 200 lb lefty has earned comparisons to Randy Johnson during his time in the minors for both his long, lanky delivery and propensity for walks and strikeouts.

In two starts at the MLB level, West has mustered just seven Ks in 12 innings, and he showed his wildness the second time out by walking four batters in just five innings. West showed a willingness to battle each time out, throwing 91 pitches in both no-decisions. The Marlins eventually lost both games.

Fantasy Impact: The 22-year-old 2005 supplemental-round pick looks comfortable at the Major League level. Take a flier if you're in need of a power pitcher. He can kill you in leagues that penalize walks, but with an ability to limit hits, West's WHIP numbers should be tolerable.

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Sean Rodriguez rumors heating up

By now you'd have to be living under a rock not to notice the hype Angels minor-league second baseman Sean Rodriguez is garnering. With Howie Kendrick going Rickie Weeks for the big league club, everyone is saying "move over, Brandon Wood," Rodriguez is the call-up flavor of the month of June.

Fantasy Impact:
Rodriguez would appear to have a ton of pop with 17 home runs in 51 games at Triple-A. Last season, however, his Major League numbers did not impress. He's worth a flier if you're looking for middle infield options at this time, and isn't everyone? Get him before someone else takes the plunge and reaps potentially high rewards. Think a Dan Uggla type with Mike Fontenot numbers on the low end.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Padres & White Sox agree on Peavy deal

The Padres and White Sox have agreed on a deal that would send Jake Peavy to Chicago in exchange for four players, according to WSCR.

Peavy has a full no-trade clause and prefers to play in the National League, so there's a strong possibility the deal doesn't happen. The Sox are said to be offering Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard as part of the trade.

Fantasy Impact: Peavy would be going to a smaller ballpark, but his electric stuff should work anywhere. He'll have a much more productive lineup around him as well, so his win potential improves. Richard would immediately become a starter with merit. Poreda might have a shot at the Padres roster this season.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Trading Zack Greinke

Yahoo! fantasy baseball readers believe Zach Greinke is the real deal. When asked if it's a good idea to sell, buy or hold Greinke right now, most respondents to Yahoo! Fantasy sports' poll said they'd keep the star right-hander. Afterall, Greinke is off to potentially one of the great pitching seasons in baseball history. Only about one quarter of readers said they'd deal him away at this time.

If the price is right, however, why not deal a guy who almost certainly can't keep up the pace? There's got to be someone willing to overspend. Just looking at Greinke's player page on CBSsports.com you can see some of the deals managers are making for his services.

One deal I caught:

Yovani Gallardo & Hanley Ramirez
for
Greinke & Michael Young

Ramirez is likely the best fantasy performer in that deal year in, year out. Gallardo is a stalwart ace if he stays healthy. While Greinke is the better pitcher in the deal right now, Young is a nice hitter who loses SS eligibility next year. His value diminishes greatly at third base. In a keeper league, this deal is a no brainer - trade Greinke.

There are deals out there to be had, so if you own Greinke, float some trade offers. You might be surprised at what you can get.

Rain on Whitesell's parade

The Arizona Diamondbacks optioned first baseman Josh Whitesell back to the minors before today's double-header against the Marlins. Whitesell had been struggling to hit, going 3-26 since his call-up earlier this month. That doesn't mean he won't be back. The double-header called for an increased strain on the bullpen, so Whitesell's replacement came in the way of another arm, not a bat.

Fantasy Impact: We'd drop Whitesell due to his demotion and struggles at the plate. We'd also keep an eye on him and the Arizona corners. If Whitesell proves resurgent at Triple-A and either Mark Reynolds or Chad Tracy remains dormant, Whitesell can be back up in a matter of weeks.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Damn, Damon

Yankees outfielder Johnny Damon continues to hit well-above his head power-wise. Damon slugs his 10th homer of the 2009 season in the 10th inning for a walk-off win over Minnesota. He's hitting .324 from the No. 2 hole in New York's star-studded lineup.

Fantasy Impact: Can this hold up? Maybe. While Damon is 34 and hasn't hit more than 24 home runs in a single season, he's certainly showing more pop in his bat later in his career. New Yankee Stadium is seeing baseballs fly into the stands with alarming regularity, but it's not necessarily going to last. Damon's production will be expected to slow, but we think he's capable of hitting 25-30 homers thanks to his blistering pace. That makes him a great trade piece to a team needing another outfielder.

No longer on Holliday

Matt Holliday is showing signs of coming out of his early-season slump. The Athletics outfielder goes 4-4 with four singles and steals a base in an 11-7 loss to Detroit. Holliday's power numbers still lack (4 HR/.394 SLG entering Sunday), but his average is on a slow climb at .267.

Fantasy Impact: Holliday's numbers took a hit leaving Coors Field and switching leagues. He's adjusting to new pitchers and a tougher park in which to hit, but he's still an accomplished outfielder. We're expecting a .285 average with 25-30 homers by season's end, leaving him in the top tier of fantasy outfielders.

Sonnastine hits well, pitches poorly again

A lineup card mistake forced Rays starting pitcher Andy Sonnanstine to bat on Sunday. The Rays submitted a lineup with both Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist listed at third base, meaning they had no DH. When Ben Zobrist played third to start the game, Indians manager Eric Wedge called the mistake to the attention of the umpiring crew.
"They had two third basemen, so I just wanted to make sure that Zobrist was in the game playing third, and I pointed it out to them after the top half of the first," Wedge said.

The Rays lost their DH position because of the error, meaning
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Sonnanstine replaced Longoria in the third spot of the lineup.
That forced Longoria to sit out, leaving Sonnastine in the No. 3 spot in the Rays' order. The pitcher doubled a run in the fourth, going 1-3 for the game, but he didn't pitch well. Sonnanstine allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings, as his ERA balloons to 7.36

Fantasy Impact: Sonnastine actually won the game to improve to 2-4 on the year. The Rays scored all seven runs without Longoria before he left. Tampa might need to make a decision on Sonnanstine soon, as his struggles certainly cannot be ignored much longer.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Glee for Lee

Cleveland starter Cliff Lee outpitched White Sox ace Mark Buehrle for a 4-0 win, just Lee's second of the season. It was Lee's first victory in nearly a month. Buehrle offered his worst effort of 2009, and it wasn't that bad, save for a pair of homers he allowed to Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko.

Fantasy Impact: Lee's disappointing start to the season leaves him unlikely to regain his 2008 Cy Young numbers, but he's still a solid fantasy option. Last season's breakout prompted overbuying of Lee in 2009, as his average draft position jumped to 64th overall in CBSsports.com fantasy leagues. That pegs Lee as a high-end No. 2 starter in most fantasy leagues, which he is not. Lee is more likely a low-end No. 2 or a No. 3 starter at this point in his career. We lean toward Lee as a No. 3, especially on an Indians team that's mired in last place.

Soriano blows save; Gonzalez notches sixth

Rafael Soriano blew his first save of 2009, but did so in the 8th inning of an eventual 8-7 Braves victory over the Mets in extra innings. Mike Gonzalez remains Atlanta's top choice for saves as he comes in to notch No. 6 on the season.

Fantasy Impact: There would appear to be some interchange between Soriano and Gonzalez to this point, but Gonzalez is still the closer in Atlanta. Soriano's earlier save chances came via Gonzalez's unavailability or use in a tight situation suited for a dominant lefty earlier in a game. Soriano blew this one in the eighth inning, meaning Gonzalez would have likely gotten the save chance with the lead in the ninth.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Zimmerman zeroed in

Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is finally figuring it out. In the midst of a 29-game hitting streak, Zimmerman has put together a stellar 2009. He's batting .363 with eight home runs and looking every bit the part of a number four overall drat selection back in 2005.

Fantasy Impact: The hitting streak and the .363 average probably won't hold up, but Zimmerman was a breakout candidate in 2008 and just delayed the fireworks. Injuries kept him back as much as anything. With a thin third base crop this year, he's likely one of the steals of this year's draft day.

Jenks suspension looming?

Bobby Jenks' admission that he purposely threw behind Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler is being investigated by Major League Baseball. This sort of thing is not taken lightly, and Jenks very well could miss a game or two with a suspension. It happened to Josh Beckett for throwing "near" Bobby Abreu earlier this year.

Fantasy Impact: We're expecting Jenks to be sidelined for at least one, maybe two games. Because he admitted purposefully throwing the pitch, we do not expect an appeal.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Richard for Contreras

With Jose Contreras getting sent to the minors to work out his issues, the White Sox moved reliever Clayton Richard into the rotation.

Fantasy Impact: Richard was a dark horse to make the Sox rotation this spring, but with Contreras' return from injury and the addition of Bartolo Colon, he became a middle reliever. Richard struggled in 2008, posting a a 6.04 ERA in 13 appearances and eight starts. He's been stronger in 2009, but he only threw 16 1/3 innings in 11 outings. He probably won't have the initial stamina to contribute in a productive way.

Hello, Hochevar

Luke Hochevar is back in the bigs. Hochevar takes Joakim Soria's spot on roster as Soria hits the DL with his shoulder problem. Sidney Ponson leaves the Royals rotation for the bullpen, so it appears Hochevar is expected to stay in the rotation a while.

Fantasy Impact: Hochevar has dominated in the minors this season. He owned a 0.90 ERA and 5-0 record in six starts. While he struggled in his first major league season in 2008, Hochevar believes he's an improved pitcher thanks to the experience. He's a two-start pitcher for the week of May 11th. We like his upside and recommending adding him to the back of your rotation.

Soria sent to DL

Joakim Soria finds himself on the DL with his shoulder issues, as the Royals announce their bullpen-by-committee approach will continue. Juan Cruz is the most obvious choice to stand in for Soria for the next two weeks.

Fantasy Impact: Cruz has the stuff to be a closer, and his 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP should entice owners needing stopgap options for their bullpen. Soria's shoulder is a definite concern and should be monitored closely. He's an elite closer when healthy, so if he's dropped on the waiver wire, pick him up for a DL slot.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Soria's sore shoulder

Joakim Soria's shoulder woes won't go away. The Royals closer continues to feel stiffness in his throwing shoulder despite medical work showing no actual injury.
"We probably don't have Jack [Soria]," manager Trey Hillman said before Saturday night's game against the Angels. "He was a little sore yesterday -- too sore for my liking to feel real comfortable. We'll probably go day-to-day."

Other than Soria's right shoulder being stiff, Hillman said he had no further information and that all medical tests had checked out OK.

"It's kind of new territory for me," Hillman said. "I felt he was a little bit behind to start [the season] and I'm still hopeful that that's what it is. I just don't know. Anything beyond that would be speculation on my part."
Fantasy Impact: This situation sounds similar to Brandon Webb's non-injury that turned into a two-month DL stay. Anytime a pitcher suffers shoulder troubles it's a big deal. Soria logged a lot of innings the past two seasons as a young pitcher, logging 69 and 67 1/3 innings at the ages of 23 and 24. It would be unfortunate that all the early success in his career begins to derail him.

It's hard to recommend a stop-gap option as Trey Hillman prefers a closer-by-committee approach if Soria is not available. Soria is not yet headed to the disabled list, so there is no reason to jump to the conclusion that he'll be unavailable for an extended period. You'll have to ride this one out.