Thursday, April 2, 2009

Watching Lincecum and Cahill more closely

Watching Tim Lincecum and Trevor Cahill throw tonight, I found myself looking for problems with their mechanics. Lincecum is considered a poster boy for arm injuries due to his unconventional approach to pitching. Cahill, who's had rotator cuff issues in his very young career, is criticized for his velocity issues.

Searching for content on Lincecum and Cahill, I stumbled upon chrisoleary.com, which dissected both pitchers' motions to home plate. What I discovered is Lincecum is actually quite OK with most of his delivery, although he does lift his pitching arm late which causes a timing problem and potential elbow/shoulder issues for the future. Cahill has his problems as well, as I found on another site. Those issues include opening his shoulders too early, which puts some undue stress on his shoulder, but I think his biggest problem is a lack of following through. He ends up very upright, which leads to some throwing across his body and potential velocity issues.

Manatee swallows Piartes

If there was any hope for the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates this year, it may have been vanquished with today's result. No, Pittsburgh did not suffer a devastating injury before the start of the season. No, the Pirates didn't get bashed badly by a Grapefruit League opponent. No, this is much more embarrassing than that. Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates' split squad lost to Manatee Community College, 6-4. Good luck with the National League Central.

6:15 p.m. Update: Manatee is not your typical community college. They've won a ton of accolades.

D'backs, not greenbacks

It's a three-peat in the desert. The Arizona Diamondbacks sell the lowest-priced tickets for the third year running. The average ticket at Chase Field went down from $15.96 to $14.31.

We got next

John Shea with The San Francisco Chronicle digs up a little blurb on something I've been thinking about for the past week or so: which MLB team has the best chance of becoming this year's Tampa Bay Rays? Along with the obvious Cincinnati Reds pick, Shea also goes with the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles. I like his KC pick best.
Royals: They're optimistic after an 18-6 September, their best month since July 1994. They improved their win total three straight years. Starter Kyle Davies, 25, was 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA in the final month, closer Joakim Soria, 24, earned 42 saves (more than anyone in the AL except Francisco Rodriguez) with a 1.60 ERA and third baseman Alex Gordon, 25, and DH-first baseman Billy Butler, 22, may be ready to break out.
I'm in complete agreement with that assessment, but I think the key for the Royals will be a healthy and productive Gil Meche.

I do not, however, agree with his Orioles pick. Baltimore not only has no shot at the postseason, they also have no chance to finish higher than fourth in the AL East.

Street closer

Houston Street earned the Rockies closer job over Manny Corpas. This news is proof that spring stats don't mean a thing. Street produced a 5.23 ERA in 10.1 IP, including a pair of home runs allowed. Corpas gave up one earned run in nine innings and no homers.

Then again, maybe the Rockies saw Corpas lose his closer job twice to Brian Fuentes in 2009 and headed him off at the pass, giving Street the role before Corpas could eventually lose it. Or a loss in velocity for Coraps might explain it
Don’t get me wrong: Street has pitched well since his first couple of disastrous outings in Cactus League action; he hasn’t done anything not to deserve the job. He’s a talented player, and I thought he was ticketed for big-time success after he was selected from the University of Texas.

I don’t believe it’ll be big time anymore, though. He’s inconsistent and doesn’t show the same flare he did early in his career.
Corpas deserves a closer role

Corpas deserves closer role

The main concern with Corpas is a 2 mph drop in the velocity of his sinker, easily his bread and butter. The right-hander is working through a hiccup in his mechanics and has already shown signs of improvement, though.

Given where Corpas was last season and how hard he has worked to get to this point, some minor setbacks along the way aren’t a surprise. Future? He’s the better man for the post. I believe the Rox have made the correct decision for the short term, but will it breed long-term success? I’m not so sure.
On that matter, we'll guess that the Rockies believe they have little to lose at the start of the season in terms of pushing the more accomplished closer into the role. Street's done the job better for longer, and if everyone starts with the same record, you might as well give yourself the safest chance at winning. Corpas will get his when it's time.

Tweaked Twins land on DL

Catcher Joe Mauer and pitchers Scott Baker and Boof Bonser all ended up on the Twins disabled list to start the season. While Mauer's still dealing with his lower back soreness and hasn't played or practiced all spring, the pitchers' problems sound much more serious.
Baker, who was scheduled to start on Opening Day against the Seattle Mariners, has soreness in his pitching shoulder and was placed on the DL retroactive to March 28. Francisco Liriano is expected to start in place of the righthander on Monday. Bonser is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder."
Minnesota is looking less and less the favorite to win the AL Central, which should have a razor-thin margin for error with several above-average ball clubs.

Fantasy Impact: Mauer's situation is fairly fluid, and he's fallen down the list of a ton of draft boards. He'll continue to slide outside of the top five catchers now that he's going to miss the start of the season and likely needs some rehab at bats in the minors.

Baker's shoulder soreness is not a good thing, and the mid-level fantasy starter falls into limbo. Bonser had relatively zero fantasy appeal, anyway.

Sheff talk cooking in Cincinnati

Sounds like the Reds are getting in on the Gary Sheffield sweepstakes, with Dusty Baker considering him for Cincinnati's left field job.
"I'm sure he has some offers," Baker said. "I asked Walt for permission to make the call. I made the call, then Walt talked to [Reds president and CEO Bob] Castelllini. I talked to Jim Leyland [Wednesday] night, just to see, because he hadn't played the outfield in a long time."

His ability to play the outfield was a bone of contention between the Tigers and Sheffield, with the team feeling he was only capable of DHing and Sheffield believing he had plenty left in the tank to play defense. The Tigers released Sheffield and his $14 million salary because of what they perceived to be his lack of flexibility.

"When I heard that word, versatility, I'm [thinking], 'I'm probably the most athletic guy on the team,'" Sheffield said at the time of his release. "But at the same time, that's their opinion and I have to respect that.

"I know I can play the outfield, so I'm not putting myself in that box. I know what I can do. I know I can throw better than most people. I still can run, and I still can hit. So that's all I can say."
Chris Dickerson is currently in consideration for left field, and the addition of Sheffield would only take away from Dickerson's opportunities.

Fantasy Impact: If Sheffield lands in Cincinnati, his fantasy value climbs thanks to the launching-pad nature of Great American Ballpark. Dickerson's value would wane from a guy who looked destined to play at least 100 games to potentially fewer than 80.

125 years of Slugger

If major leaguers' bats look like they have a big smudge on them on your high def TV, that's because Louisville Slugger is commemorating its 125th year of baseball bats with a special logo on their bat barrels.

Glaus out at least two months

Troy Glaus will miss at least two months of the season following a setback in his rehabilitation after shoulder surgery.
Glaus originally was expected to miss just a few weeks of the season. But the Cardinals said yesterday he will be reevaluated around June 1.

"It's just not responding as quickly as we'd hoped," Glaus said in Jupiter, Fla. "It obviously didn't go as smoothly or uneventfully as we had hoped."

David Freese is the top candidate to start at third with Glaus out.

General manager John Mozeliak told the Associated Press that Glaus might have pushed too hard in his rehab schedule. He said Glaus's progress will be assessed in a few weeks.

"Sometimes being overly optimistic can hurt you," Mozeliak said.
Fantasy owners must take this news with caution. If an April return was overly optimistic, could a five-week delay be "overly optimistic" as well? Leave Glaus on the waiver wire for now, or stash him if you have the DL space. He's not going to contribue productively until the second half of the season.

Fantasy Impact: David Freese is considered a middle-range prospect by CBSsports.com. He did hit 26 homers in Triple-A last season, but the 25-year-old was never on the radar as a major contributor at the big-league level. The Cardinals have had success with journeyman types like Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. Those two players were drafted, however, and Freese was not. Only take a flier on Freese if you're desperate.

Rangers go retro keeping Benson, Jones

Andruw Jones made the Texas Rangers roster, and in even more surprising news Kris Benson made the Rangers rotation. How? Why? This is the Texas Rangers, after all. Benson always showed flashes of being a good pitcher. Jones, in a rapid decline the past few years, was still one of the best centerfielders ever to play the game. Texas must hope there's something left in that strikeout-prone bat of his.

Fantasy Impact: Benson is a better fantasy addition at this time, because Jones is not going to get guaranteed at bats. Benson never posted bad numbers in his career, but he hasn't pitched since an 11-12, 4.82 ERA performance back in 2006 with Baltimore. Jones will fight for time at DH with Hank Blalock. Blalock will get the bulk of at bats against righty pitching.

Karstens = Pirates 5th starter

Jeff Karstens wins the Pirates No. 5 starter spot. This move received little attention as Karstens hasn't exactly put together a special big league career over his three seasons. In deeper leagues, however, especially points leagues, Karstens can be a decent contributor. In nine starts last season, he posted a 4.03 ERA. Karstens won't win much in Pittsburgh, and he doesn't strike anyone out, but he has respectable peripherals. You could do much worse.

Check out Karstens' career minor league numbers:

640 IP, 533 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

That's very solid. Strike outs are often a tell-tale as to how a minor league pitcher will do in the big leagues. With 7.5 K/9, Karstens is on the edge of the spectrum in terms of meeting the standard, but he brough his strikeout rate up in both 2006 and 2007. He keeps his walks down, and yielded a hit per inning in the minors.

New strike zone evaluator in MLB

Baseball is using a new strike zone evaluator in replace of QuesTec that is already available in every major league park. QuesTec was only available in about a third of MLB stadiums.
The new system, called Zone Evaluation, relies on pitch-tracking data already collected by cameras in all 30 parks and distributed through applications on MLB.com and iTunes. Zone Evaluation software will rate umpire performance more quickly and accurately than QuesTec, according to Mike Port, baseball’s vice president for umpiring.

“It’s an upgrade from where we were,” Port said in a telephone interview. “The umpires, they don’t want to miss a pitch any more than a batter wants to strike out. Where the Z.E. system will give us a lot of help is more data to help identify any trends: ‘The last three plate jobs, you missed seven pitches that were down and in. Here’s how one of the supervisors can help you adjust your head angle or your stance to have a better chance of getting those pitches.’”
A former catcher, I remember umpires typically setting up inside, where they had a better look at pitches on the inside corner of the plate. They'd have to guess more on the outside corner due to the angle they incurred by setting up inside. Umpires who guessed more in favor of strikes on the outside corner could be "set up" with the right kind of framing. If this new system forces umps into a uniform approach on calling balls and strikes, baseball will be better off.

I've always wondered why baseball doesn't use a monitoring system that creates a strike zone field that is hooked up to the scoreboard. Let the fans see what's going on in real time. Take strike zone calls away from umpires. Why not get it right every time rather than leave calling balls and strikes to human error?

Selig slammed in steroid series

The NY Daily News attempts to "save baseball" with a series of reports/ideas on fixing the game's ongoing steroid problem. My favorite, of course, is part one: replacing the commish.
Bud Selig has been in charge of baseball for 17 years, longer than anyone since Kenesaw Mountain Landis cleaned up the Black Sox scandal and held a death grip on the commissioner's office. Selig's reign is different, a failed regime, and one that should have come to a close when 2003 put its scandalous stamp on him. At the very least, 2009 must be Selig's swan song. As long as he heads the sport, it will never get a fresh start, a second chance.

During Selig's endless rule, the sport has suffered its worst, extended disasters in history. His first calamity struck early - Selig could not rescue the 1994 season during a 232-day strike, and was unable to extract a hard salary cap from the players' union. There was no World Series champion crowned that year, an inexcusable breach of contract with millions of loyal fans. The club payroll inequities spawned from that year's folly exist to this day, further proof that the owners and the commissioner's office botched those negotiations.
And then the writer gets into bashing Selig over the steroid infestation, which is priceless. Selig makes over $18-million a year to blow the game to pieces.

The report also asks for the departure of players union chief Donald Fehr, which Spitting Seeds also endorses, but the best way to kill the snake it to chop off the head. Start there, first.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Porcello to start in Detroit rotation

Tigers Rookie Rick Porcello not only made the team today, he's also in Detroit's rotation, according to team president and general manager Dave Dombrowski.
“I think he’s one of our best starting pitchers,” Dombrowski said. “He has quality stuff. We’ve seen it. He throws strikes. He’s a confident, mature individual beyond his years.

“He has continued development in his breaking ball. He’ll continue to work hard at it. He’s got a good changeup. He’s very mature. He’s very talented. He does the little things well, fields his position well. He’s a competitor. He holds runners well.

“I think he’s ready. I think he’ll do well. If he has some tough times — every pitcher does — I think he’s mature enough to handle it. Is he a 100% finished guy? No. But he’ll keep working on what he needs to work on. And he has a pitch that can help get him out of jams — a very, very nasty sinker.”
Fantasy Impact: Porcello's never pitched above A-ball, and he's just 20 years old. His numbers, however, don't lie. The lanky right-hander walked just 33 batters in 125 innings last season, and limited opponents to a 1.19 WHIP. He's a classic sinker-baller, so don't expect tons of strike outs. Do expect good numbers in all other categories, especially before teams get a book on him.

Rodney kind of wins Detroit closer job

Francisco Rodney wins the Tigers closer job over newly acquired Brandon Lyon. Jim Leyland's endorsement doesn't exactly sound binding.
"If we have a one-run lead in Toronto for the first game," Leyland said, "Fernando Rodney will come in. Is he going to come in every time? I've not really named him the closer, but he gets the first game. There might be somebody else involved at one point."
Both Rodney and Lyon struggled last season. Neither is going to be a safe bet to retain the role.

Fantasy Impact: So, Rodney goes first. With Leyland's comments it sounds like this 50-50 fight is now more 60-40 or 65-35 Rodney. Lean toward him if you absolutely need saves, but back him up with Lyon if you can. Better yet, stay away from both of them.

Bonifacio wins Marlins third base job; McPherson cut

Emilio Bonifacio not only won the third base job in Florida, he's the Marlins only option after they released fellow third baseman Dallas McPherson.
On Monday, the Marlins sent rookie first baseman Gaby Sanchez to the minors, leaving Emilio Bonifacio, acquired from Washington in the offseason, as the team's starting third baseman and Jorge Cantu as the first baseman.

One month ago, the question was where Cantu would play. After first baseman Mike Jacobs was traded to Kansas City, the options were Cantu at first base and McPherson at third, or whether it would be Sanchez at first and McPherson at third. The prevailing thought was that the team's defense would improve from 2008, a stated goal of team officials, under either scenario. Now they have turned to Bonifacio, a natural second baseman who is still learning to play third and has struggled at times this spring.
Yes, but he can run. With Sanchez and McPherson out of the way, Florida is making a commitment to the corner combo of Bonifacio and Cantu. The Marlins would love to have the speed-burning threesome of Cameron Maybin, Bonifacio and Hanley Ramirez to terrorize opponents at the top of the order.

Fantasy Impact: Bonifacio can fly. Just search his name on Youtube and you'll see. He's stolen 61 bases in a minor league season, and he's likely to get a slot near the top of the batting order. If he can hold down third base, expect a light-hitting burner who can get you 40-plus steals and score 75 runs.

Devine's elbow intervention

Joey Devine's elbow woes will shelve him for the start of the 2009 season. The most dominant pitcher in the A's bullpen will need a doctor visit to explore the severity of the issue. Until then, he'll wait for the news on the disabled list.
"I spent the entire off-season rehabbing it, and then it came back as soon as I got to game-ready (during) the first part of spring training, and that tells me there is something there," Devine said Tuesday before the A's 7-2 exhibition victory over the Kansas City Royals.Coupled with the elbow injury that has sidelined ace Justin Duchscherer, the A's open the season with a revamped offense but lacking two integral members of the pitching staff.
This means Brad Ziegler is Oakland's closer for the start of the season, and as long as Devine is a health risk, Ziegler will remain in that role.

Fantasy Impact: Owners who drafted Devine may want to look for a fallback option. If you can't afford to stash Devine on your roster or DL him, releasing him might be the best option. Saves will come available over the course of the year as Ziegler owners will tell you.

As for Ziegler inheriting the closer role, he's suited for the position. He did a good job last year for the A's and set the new MLB record for scoreless innings from his debut wirth 39. The knock on Ziegler is he doesn't strike people out, but he also didn't lose a single game he pitched while tossing nearly 60 innings as a 28-year-old rookie.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Burriss wins 2b job

Emmanuel Burriss has beaten out Kevin Fransden for the Giants second base job. Fransden didn't even make the team as a backup, getting optioned to the minors.
Fantasy Impact: Not too much of a surprise here. Burriss can become a sleeper prospect, but he can still lose starting time to Ray Durham and/or Eugenio Velez. He's worth a flier in deeper leagues at this time.

Valentine time for Team USA?

Jack Curry of the New York Times wants Team USA to consider hiring Bobby Valentine as their next skipper. Why? Because Valentine predicted Japan would win the 2009 World Baseball Classic title among his other obvious credentials.
The next Classic is not until 2013, but if Valentine is available, he should be strongly considered as a candidate to manage the United States team. Valentine has managed in both countries and was the first American manager to win a title in the Japanese Leagues with the Chiba Lotte Marines in 2005. If Valentine were free and the job were offered, he indicated he would take it.

After finishing fourth this season and eighth in the first Classic in 2009, the United States could use an infusion of energy in four years. Valentine would be a good start. He said Japan’s precise, disciplined style was perfectly suited for a three-week tournament, something the Americans should have noticed by now.

“If you rely on a home run in a short series, you’re destined for doom,” Valentine said. “I know teams have won with the home run. But you’ve got to play the game of baseball. Whatever style it is, if you make fewer mistakes, I think you’re increasing your chances of winning a short series.”
Valentine makes sense as Team USA's manager, but it will take more pitchers for the USA to compete. A manager that knows both teams inside and out is one thing, but you have to play the best to beat what's currently better than you.

Franks passes

Former Giants manager Herman Franks passed away Monday at the age of 95. He never won the pennant in San Francisco, but landed four second-place finishes.
Known away from the game as a man who enjoyed cigars and card games and made wise investments, Mr. Franks was hired to replace Alvin Dark after the 1964 season and nearly guided the Giants to pennants in 1965 and 1966. Both times, the Giants lost tight races to the Dodgers.