Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Olivo leaves the yard

Royals catcher Miguel Olivo is on some kind of tear. The backup to John Buck is getting more and more playing time and making waves. Olivo hit his seventh home run Wednesday against the White Sox, his original Major League team. He's batting .299 with a chance to see a more at bats tonight with a 4-4 game in the 9th.

Fantasy Impact: Buck is not a bad catcher, but he might not be any better than Olivo. When Olivo was signed this offseason, he assumed he was going to be the starter. Instead, he was penciled in as the backup with a chance to earn time. Tonight he filled the DH slot, batting fifth in the lineup. Buck batted two spots behind him. Olivo looks like he's primed to take over the starting catcher job for Kansas City, but his track record suggests he will come down in batting average while hitting about 15 home runs.

Bradley lights up Lee

Milton Bradley hit his 12th home run of the season tonight, leaving him five shy of red-hot teammate Josh Hamilton. No. 12 came off Indians starter Cliff Lee, who is suddenly falling back to earth after an incredible run to start the year.

Fantasy Impact: Bradley's career high in home runs is 19. He's on pace for more than 30 this year. The strong start to his season, however, comes with a caveat: Bradley's only made it to 500 at bats once before in his career. Take away that season and Bradley's never reached 400 at bats in a single season. He always ends up on the DL.

As for Lee, his ERA is on a steady rise from under one to 2.45. His recent struggles include tonight's debacle of six earned runs in five innings. He still looks to be in line for the win.

Chi Sox sign Loaiza

The White Sox signed Esteban Loaiza on Wednesday. The right-hander had a magical season with the Sox back in 2004 when he won 21 games. He'll pitch long relief and spot start for the rest of 2008. The Dodgers released him earlier this year, in part to make room for rookie phenom Clayton Kershaw.

Fantasy Impact: None. You don't want him. This is probably a good move for the Sox who didn't have much of a long-man in their 'pen with much starting experience. Loaiza has a ton of experience in that regard.

Eddie 'V' vanquishes Phils for 8th victory

Edinson Volquez is no longer for real. He's surreal. Entering tonight's game in Philadelphia, Volquez owned 83 Ks in 68 innings of work, an amazing mark for a starter. At 7-2 with a National League-leading 1.46 ERA, tonight's challenge of facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball in one of the top hitters' parks in the majors ended up another as just another Volquez gem.

Not that any Volquez start is just another start. Check out these numbers against the Phillies:

7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Volquez lowered his ERA to 1.32. He earned his 8th win. Perhaps most impressive -- he held the Phillies' top five hitters of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell to one hit in 16 at bats.

Fantasy Impact: Volquez was a sell-high candidate based on his out-of-this world start to the season. This kind of performance, however, makes him one of the best pitchers in baseball. He appears to be legit.

This just in... Alexei Ramirez walked

Chicago White Sox' fill-in second baseman Alexei Ramirez walked in tonight's game against the Royals. It's just his third walk in 103 at bats. To call Ramirez a free swinger would be like calling Juan Uribe a candidate to lose his job. Uribe is just that, because Ramirez is starting to light it up in his first MLB season. The Cuban has three hits in each of his last two games, going 9-15 in his last four.

Update: Ramirez walked in his next plate appearance, giving him four walks in 104 at bats.

Fantasy Impact: He's not the Sox' starter at second yet, but it will be hard to take the job away now that Ramirez is finding all sorts of ways to reach base. He's a streaky player, and on a hot streak for now.

Ready Made

Given we're on the eve of the MLB draft, and considering the performances top prospect David Price is turning out, it's time to take a quick look at this year's crop for potential instant call-ups. That's what Sports Illustrated is thinking. The name a lot of people are talking about is Florida State catcher Buster Posey.

Pedro pitches well in return

Pedro Martinez' second start of the season went much better than his first one. The Mets' ace beat the Giants in his return from a hamstring injury. Martinez threw 63 of his 109 pitches for strikes, throwing freely and easily in his return. He also looked good at the plate with a couple of hits and an RBI.

Fantasy Impact: Martinez is still one of the better pitchers in baseball when he's healthy. The 36-year-old has landed on the disabled list four times in the past two years.

Bradley bashes two

Don't look now, but Milton Bradley is finally fulfilling his one-time status as a top prospect. The Rangers' DH is chasing teammate Josh Hamilton fairly closely as best hitter on the team. Bradley belted two solo homers on Tuesday, giving him 11 on the season.

Fantasy Impact: Bradley always seems to suffer some sort of freak injury, but he was always expected to be a dynamic performer, as well. As long as he stays healthy, he's a solid to strong contributor.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Glossing over the Birds deal

The Cardinals - Blue Jays straight swap of injury-plagued 3rd basemen in the offseason sent Troy Glaus to St. Louis and Scott Rolen to Toronto. To this point, Glaus has delivered more only because Rolen missed time at the beginning the year. Here's their numbers through the first third of the season:

Troy Glaus: .269, 20 R, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB (193 AB)
Scott Rolen: .310, 16 R 2 HR 20 RBI 4 SB (129 AB)

Project them out over the rest of the year, and Rolen dominates every single category. It's not necessarily a loss for the Cardinals, however, as Rolen and manager Tony La Russa had their differences. At the same time, production is production, and Rolen is winning the war at this point. He might be the Blue Jays' offensive MVP this year.

Fantasy Impact: Rolen is older than Glaus (33 and 31 respectively), but he's also better than Glaus. He always has been better. Glaus owns more career homers, but Rolen's career batting average is about 27 points higher, and he still can run, stealing over 100 bases for his career.

Prior a shell of former self

Mark Prior will undergo another surgery on his ailing right shoulder, missing his second full season. This comes as little or no surprise considering the 27-year-old hasn't pitched in the big leagues since August of 2006.

Fantasy Impact: Most people were cautious with Prior to begin the year; managers drafted him late or left him alone. At this point questions must be raised as to whether Prior will ever be the pitcher he once was. Another valid question: will he ever pitch again?

100 for Johan

For those who say Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine and, perhaps, Randy Johnson will be the last pitchers to win 300 games, Johan Santana is quickly building a stockpile of wins that makes him a candidate for the elite club.

Santana won his 100th game Sunday against the Dodgers, an impressive number he's only in his sixth season as a full-time starter. Over the last five years he won 70 games, so if he continues to win at the same rate, Santana will earn 240 victories by the time he is 39 years old. Maddux, Clemens, Glavine and Johnson all pitched or are pitching well into their 40s.

Fantasy Impact: Santana is on his way to a very special career. While his gaudy numbers have come back to the pack ever so slightly in the past couple of seasons, he's still one of the top starters in baseball if not the premier ace. He'll need longevity to reach 300, a mark that is as much about durability as it is simply ability.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Penthouse Price

Forget all the talk about who's the next Pedro Martinez. How about Pedro himself telling us how good David Price looks. We knew he was good from his stellar Vanderbilt career, but with what he's done in his short minor league stint after joining the Rays in A-ball is remarkable.

Pedro says Price is "amazing, that kid. He's amazing. That kid is very mature for his time in [the pros], and very talented."

"Oh my God. God bless him and keep him healthy."

With love from arguably the top pitcher of this era, Price is certainly headed for the highest level of baseball - maybe as early as this year.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

(Chase)ing dollars

Credit Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune for a great piece on Padres prospect Chase Headley. Sullivan's position is that the Padres are penny-pinching and that's the only reason Headley hasn't climbed to the big leagues yet.

To paraphrase, players become eligible for salary arbitration after three years of major league service, but some are lucky enough to reach that milestone after just two-plus seasons based on a yearly fluctuation in the cutoff. Sullivan writes:
The specific requirements fluctuate from year to year, but “Super Twos” represent the top 17 percent of those players with more than two years of service time and less than three, with the proviso that they log at least 86 days on the roster the previous season.

Last year's cutoff was two years, 140 days. Howard qualified with two years, 145 days. Yet the historic range is sufficiently broad – since 1990, it has fallen variously from two years plus 128 days to two years plus 153 days – that roster decisions become exceedingly delicate this time of year.
There are 122 days left in the 2008 baseball season, meaning the Padres are entering a safe-zone in terms of calling Headley up and still limiting his service time, thereby pushing back his arbitration eligibility until 2012. At the latest he should be on the Major League roster within the first couple of weeks in July, which is good news for the Padres as they can use some help offensively. It's bad news for Headley, however, as his big paychecks will by that time be another year away.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Three little bears

Three Cubs lead their respective positions in All-Star voting. Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome hold down two outfield positions at this time while catcher Geovany Soto is attempting to become the first rookie catcher to be voted to the game.

Soriano and Fukudome certainly had the bigger names and commanded more attention than Soto entering the season, but a this point Soto appears to be the most deserving of the honor. At least a dozen other outfielders are as (or more) All-Star worthy as the Cubs' vote leaders. Soto's only competitions is Brian McCann.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Bourn ultimatum

With steals in each of his last two games, the Astros' Michael Bourn tied Ichiro for the Major League lead (21). Sixteen players now have 10 or more steals this season with Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury and Colorado's Willy Taveres tied for third with 19 steals apiece.

Bourn is, on pace to steal almost 70 bases this year, remains the ultimate steals threat in MLB. Only five players have reached 70 steals since 1993:

Jose Reyes (NYM) - 78 in 2007
Scott Podsednik (CWS) - 70 in 2004
Tony Womack (ARI) - 72 in 1999
Brian Hunter (DET) - 74 in 1997
Kenny Lofton (CLE) - 75 in 1996
Kenny Lofton (CLE) - 70 in 1993

Hit and miss

Philadelphia's Ryan Howard went 3-5 Thursday night with his 13th home run. He's on pace to hi 43 this season. Howard also struck out twice. With 71 Ks in 179 AB he's on pace to whiff 235 times.

Howard strikes out or homers in 47 percent of his at bats.

One harry Haren

In what is becoming a theme this season, Arizona's Dan Haren continues to suffer one rocky inning, derailing a great start with a single sub-par frame. Thursday at Florida he gave up three earned runs in the 7th inning, turning a great statline into mediocrity. His numbers with and without the 7th inning:

Plus 7th: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 8 K
Minus 7th: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8 K

Florida's Andrew Miller allowed no runs in 6 innings to pick up the win as Haren falls to 5-3.

Friday's intriguing matchups

OAK: Zito (0-8, 6.25) vs.
FLA: Olsen (4-1, 2.82)
*Zito's been respectable the last three times out. Olsen's walk numbers point to an inevitable collapse.

ARI: Davis (1-1, 3.72) vs.
ATL Reyes (2-1, 4.12)
*Davis makes his first start back from thyroid cancer. Reyes is still looking for his first quality start.

NYM: Perez (4-3, 4.25) vs.
COL: Reynolds (0-1, 3.09)
*Perez dominated the Yankees last time out. Reynolds is a first-round pick cutting his teeth in the Bigs.

LAA: Saunders (7-2, 2.48) vs.
CWS: Floyd (4-2, 2.92)
*Two of this season's biggest surprises go head-to-head.

KC: Greinke (5-1, 2.18) vs.
TOR: Halladay (4-5, 3.38)
*Greinke has yet to give up more than three runs in an outing. Halladay last pitched in relief.

MIN: Slowey (0-4, 5.49) vs.
DET: Galarraga (3-1, 3.06)
*Slowey, who's lost all of his starts this season, beat Detroit the only time he faced them last season. Galarraga is trying to keep a starting job.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Sunday silence

Sunday offers a bunch of average to below-average pitching match ups, but there's one that stands out:

CLE: Lee (6-0, 0.67) vs.
CIN: Volquez (6-1, 1.12)

These two standouts seem to have everything going their way. Volquez owns the better stuff, but Lee's the best pitcher in baseball right now. It's too bad this isn't the Sunday night primetime game, which pits this so-so match up:

NYM: Perez (3-3, 4.61)
NYY: Wang (6-1, 2.90)

Wang is the heavy favorite in that one, and last year he dominated the Mets (1-0, 2.18 ERA).

Not very Sori

Alfonso Soriano is heating up like the weather in Chicago. He's hit seven home runs this week and four in his last two games. His batting average was at .188 entering last weekend's series with Arizona. Now he's hitting .265.

Fantasy Impact: Ride the wave, but proceed with caution. Soriano's battled a number of leg injuries in the last couple of seasons, and he doesn't look too good running the bases or chasing fly balls in left. He's healthy enough to hit, but how healthy is he?