Reynolds' bad rap

Everyone knows Mark Reynolds is extremely strikeout prone. He owns the three highest totals for strikeouts in a single season, including last year's record-smashing 223. Many fantasy baseball managers let that slide in 2009 because Reynolds performed in breakout fashion, walloping 44 home runs and still managing a slash line of .260/.349/.543, respectable numbers for most power hitters even in spite of the ridiculous whiff numbers.

This year, Reynolds has still managed decent power numbers with 51 extra base hits, but his sky-high strikeout numbers and plummeting batting average have reduced him to marginal fantasy starter rather than the power force he appeared to be in 2009. Reynolds is in jeopardy of a record-setting year of futility in potentially becoming the first every-day player to have a higher strikeout total than batting average (currently 206 K total and .199 average) for the season. His BABIP of .322 for his career is a bit on the high side in terms of good luck. This year's BABIP is .255, which is highly unlucky.

Fantasy Impact: Reynolds goes from a guy who looks like a perennial keeper in your typical keeper league to back in the draft heap for 2011. The good news is that BABIP should come up more in line of his career numbers moving forward, as his high strikeout numbers had never produced a batting average below .239. Bringing Reynolds BABIP back toward the norm leaves a would-be .224 average for this season and he would produce at a .236 clip in 2010 at his career BABIP. That's below Reynlods .243 career batting average, which means last season is still looking like a career year rather than a harbinger of future success. Reynolds simply slipped back to the pack in 2010, despite his 32 home runs leading the third base position. If your league keeps between five and six keepers, he's on the fringe for 2011.

Aviles for this year, Gordon for next?

A couple of notes on a couple of Royals to keep an eye on for the last week of the regular season and into next year. Mike Aviles hit just his seventh home run of the season Thursday night, but he entered Thursday hitting .365 in September before finishing 1-5 for his night.

As you might expect, Royals teammate Alex Gordon turned in a typical 1-4 night in Cleveland, leaving his 2010 average at an unimpressive .227. It's what Gordon is saying moving forward, however, that deserves some attention. Gordon claims he's going to "dominate" in 2011.

Fantasy Impact: Aviles now owns five homers in September and he's hit safely in 13 of 17 games. After a miserable 2009 campaign and quiet start to this season, he's making up for his struggles quite nicely as the season winds down. Remember, he hit .325 after a mid-season call-up in 2008, meaning he can go on long streaks of quality production. Infield eligibility at both SS and 2B add to his increasing value. He's worth an add if you need any kind of infield help.

Gordon's proclamation is at least noteworthy and potentially a warning for fantasy owners for next year. Remember, this is a former No. 2 overall pick out of baseball powerhouse Nebraska who went from college ball to the big leagues in one year with relative success. Gordon hit .321/.438/.578 over parts of three seasons in the minors, and while he's only performed at .247/.330/.408 over four years at the major league level. Injuries, however, wrecked last year and Gordon was able to belt 31 homers in his first two seasons at the ages of 23 and 24. Big things potentially lay ahead, making Gordon a great late-round sleeper pick in 2011. If he's feeling good enough to proclaim future success after a season split between a sub-par big league numbers and another Triple-A masterpiece, there's a good chance he can perform somewhere in-between next year.

Bautista is home run boss - this year

Jose Bautista hits his 50th home run, putting him nine up on Albert Pujols for the MLB lead. He probably doesn't need to slug another homer in 2010 to win the race by a fairly wide margin.

Fantasy Impact: Career year or breakout season? That's what fantasy owners of Bautista must be wondering now with just over a week to go. Now with 34 more homers than in any of his previous four full-time MLB seasons, Bautista doesn't have much of a track record to expect future presence in the ranks of baseball's top power hitters. He does, however, have a decent-enough base of work to believe this isn't entirely a fluke. Brady Anderson was a guy who hit 50 homers in 1996 but failed to top 20 homers but two other times in a 15-season MLB career. That's not to suggest that Bautista is Anderson, but Bautista's previous four seasons comprised of a slash line of .242/.334/.412, suggesting he's going to come back to earth quite a bit in 2011. Let's argue against an epiphany for this journeyman ballplayer who is already with his fifth organization at the age of 29. He's a good sell-high candidate in the offseason, and maybe before the preseason, as a lesser spring followed by a little bad press will sabotage value on a return.