ESPN talks to Scout X

ESPN reports various musings from Scout X, a big-league scout with a couple of interesting considerations for the 2010 season. Among them:

He thinks Matt Cain has a better six- to eight-year outlook than Tim Lincecum.

He also likes Phil Hughes over Joba Chamberlain for Yankees fifth starter.

Nothing else really stands out.

Fantasy Impact: It's becoming fairly typical for those doubting the diminutive Lincecum and his unique pitching rotation. We still find the best analysis of his mechanics to be much less of an indictment than what the doubters are saying.

Hughes vs. Chamberlain is certainly a tossup. Neither is a good fantasy option due to their low sample size and MLB inconsistency, but they both deserve flier picks due to playing for the Yankess.

Come on, Lincecum

Tim Lincecum's struggles continued for a second start. The 2008 National League Cy Young winner struggled with three walks and ten hits allowed in a 6-1 drubbing by San Diego.

“Right now there’s a little more negatives on my side than usual,” Lincecum said. “I’ve just got to go down and take a look at what’s going on and figure something out.”

Chase Headley homered for the second straight day and Luis Rodriguez had two sacrifice flies for San Diego, which finished with 13 hits.

Lincecum had been dominant in his previous eight starts against the Padres, going 3-1 with a microscopic 0.95 ERA.

“He hasn’t gotten into his good groove yet,” San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy said. “His fastball command is not sharp and that’s what is hurting him. As good as he is, he really needs to do that.”

You have to wonder if Lincecum's illness this spring, coupled with mediocre spring stuff, is contributing to his slow start. The Giants' ace saw Padres right hander Chris Young work seven strong innings with seven strikeouts for his second win.

Watching Lincecum and Cahill more closely

Watching Tim Lincecum and Trevor Cahill throw tonight, I found myself looking for problems with their mechanics. Lincecum is considered a poster boy for arm injuries due to his unconventional approach to pitching. Cahill, who's had rotator cuff issues in his very young career, is criticized for his velocity issues.

Searching for content on Lincecum and Cahill, I stumbled upon chrisoleary.com, which dissected both pitchers' motions to home plate. What I discovered is Lincecum is actually quite OK with most of his delivery, although he does lift his pitching arm late which causes a timing problem and potential elbow/shoulder issues for the future. Cahill has his problems as well, as I found on another site. Those issues include opening his shoulders too early, which puts some undue stress on his shoulder, but I think his biggest problem is a lack of following through. He ends up very upright, which leads to some throwing across his body and potential velocity issues.

Santana's arm issue a reality drops fantasy value a touch

It's still early in the Johan Santana saga, but his scratched start from Friday is resulting in some speculating from the New York Times that Santana might miss his Opening Day start.

Twenty days after arriving in Florida, he has yet to face a batter.

“We talked about taking everything easy and not going crazy,” Santana said. “Jerry will make a decision on when I will pitch again, and in the meantime I’m going to get myself ready. He doesn’t want me to put myself in any situation where it gets any worse.”

“For me to go out there right now without facing any hitters would be the wrong thing to do,” Santana added. “So we have a plan where I have to throw some light B.P. like I’ve done in the past, and we’ll go from there.”

Still, he would not say for sure whether or not he would start on opening day, April 6 in Cincinnati.

“If it’s going to be me or somebody else, it’s tough to say,” he said. “But right now, on paper, I’m supposed to be the one.”

Santana, who has been throwing every other day, said that he had not had a magnetic resonance imaging exam, but that team doctors told him that his elbow tightness was related to his triceps tendon. He played down the severity, insisting that there are still five weeks until opening day.

As Manager Jerry Manuel put it Friday, the Mets are being “extra, extra, extra cautious.”

Severe or not, this issue is enough to drop Santana behind Tim Lincecum as the most attractive pitcher on fantasy draft day. Lincecum meets or exceeds Santana in every category but wins, and with Johan possibly missing time, Lincecum can beat him there, too.

Fatansy Analysis: It is Spitting Seeds' opinion that Tim Lincecum is the safer bet to have a better 2009 at this time. Santana has plenty of time to get it going this spring, but any arm troubles this early in the year are a cause of concern. Stay tuned.